Jobs report is promising, but expert notes slowdown in run-up to seasonal holiday hiring
CHICAGO (CBS) -- A promising jobs report for the month of September was issued Friday, but experts say it is a double-edge sword as we continue to battle inflation.
We saw a surge in layoffs last month, and more are coming.
CBS 2's Tara Molina talked with industry leaders Friday, and examined how Illinois and Chicago will be affected ahead of the holiday season.
"The economy is still adding jobs at a time the fed is trying to slow down the economy to curb inflation," said jobs expert Andy Challenger of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Early October may seem early to be talking about the holiday season – but when it comes to hiring seasonal workers, it's not.
While employers are typically gearing up for the hustle and bustle of the holiday season at this time of year, we are instead seeing a slowdown; a pause.
"Usually at this point in September employers are on full on hiring mode in warehouses; in stores; bringing cashiers and salespeople for the end of the year holiday shopping season," said jobs expert Andy Challenger of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
This could impact industries here in Chicago, especially retail.
"We might see that those jobs are little bit fewer and farther between this year," Challenger said. "We've seen that pretty slow to start. A lot of employers haven't even announced what their holiday hiring goals are yet; potentially waiting to see what happens with the economy - if we do go into a recession, or if inflation is keeping people from spending as much this holiday season as they have the past few years."
Friday's federal jobs report shows unemployment rates dropping to a 50-year low - at 3.5 percent. The report also shows continued job growth, but it's growth that's slowing down.
Challenger, Gray and Christmas is tracking a surge in job cuts in September of more than 46 percent. That figure is still at historically low levels.
The leading industry in job cut announcements? Retailers.
"This report, and a couple other pieces of information we had this week, are showing the first signs of a maybe crack in the labor market," Challenger said.
Molina reached out to the Illinois Retail Association for more information on what we are seeing when it comes to seasonal hiring and work. When we hear back, we will update this story.
Meanwhile, the jobs report Friday showed wins for the industry hit hardest by the pandemic – restaurants and bars. Hospitality is leading job gains nationwide, and while it is still short of its pre-COVID level, it is showing strength.
And if you're looking for a job, Challenger also said now is the time.
"If you're a job seeker looking for a new role, today is the day to do – as opposed to a month or six months from now," he said. "We don't think the labor market is going to stay this strong forever."