Hurricane Milton on path for Florida landfall as a potentially historic major storm
Hurricane Milton was barreling across the Gulf of Mexico as a powerful Category 5 storm early Wednesday on a path toward Florida's central west coast, where mass evacuations clogged highways as people prepared for the potentially historic impact. It's forecast to make landfall Wednesday night or early Thursday. Some communities, like those in and around the Tampa Bay area, were still reeling from Hurricane Helene less than two weeks ago.
"Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida," the National Hurricane Center said early Wednesday.
CBS News Meteorologist Nikki Nolan said the latest forecast track shows Milton making landfall over or near Sarasota, Florida.
"I think the most recent models have it somewhere in Manatee County, just south of Tampa Bay," Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said in a briefing Tuesday. "But I would just tell people, one, we're going to have impacts far beyond wherever the eye of the storm is. Two, you can make landfall anywhere from Citrus County down into Southwest Florida. We'll know more over the next 12 to 18 hours. But just, cones, all this stuff you see, the impacts will be broader than that, specifically with respect to storm surge."
The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay described Milton as "a historic storm for the west coast of Florida" that could prove to be the worst to hit Tampa Bay in more than a century.
Floridians in the potential path of the hurricane lined properties with sandbags, boarded up doors and windows, and moved their boats ahead of the storm's arrival. DeSantis issued emergency orders over the weekend that now include 51 counties, whose residents, he said, should prepare for power outages, stock up on enough food and water to last a week and be ready to leave their homes if necessary.
According to GasBuddy, as of Tuesday evening, a little more than 17% of Florida gas stations were without fuel, including more than 46% in the Tampa Bay area.
Once it makes landfall, Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida peninsula.
It was expected to move off Florida's east coast and into the Atlantic Ocean sometime Thursday.
Tracking Hurricane Milton
Early Wednesday, Milton was just northeast of Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula. The Mexican government issued hurricane warnings as forecasters expected damaging winds and a life-threatening storm surge to hit portions of the coast. The hurricane had weakened somewhat since its maximum sustained wind speeds swirled past 180 mph Monday during a rapid period of intensification that the National Hurricane Center called "explosive" and "remarkable."
Milton had dropped back down to Category 4 overnight Monday. But by Tuesday night, the storm churned over the Yucatán Peninsula with maximum wind speeds hovering around 160 mph — which is above the 157 mph threshold for a Category 5 storm. Forecasters said they expected Milton to retain its status as a major hurricane on its way to the western Florida coast.
As of 2 a.m. Eastern Time Wednesday, Milton was located 205 miles west-southwest of the Dry Tortugas, Florida, and 360 miles southwest of Tampa. It was moving northeast at 12 mph.
A hurricane warning was in effect for the Florida west coast from Bonita Beach north to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay, and the state's east coast from the St. Lucie-Martin County line north to Ponte Vedra Beach.
Multiple areas were also under tropical storm watches and warnings, including portions of Georgia, South Carolina and the Bahamas.
Milton's peak strength rivaled the most disastrous Atlantic hurricanes in recorded history and happened at breakneck speed. Milton was a tropical storm only 24 hours before it snowballed into a Category 5 hurricane, the highest ranking on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which rates storms based on their sustained wind speeds.
"It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation," the hurricane center said Tuesday morning. "Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida."
Tampa Bay braces for landfall
The latest forecasts suggest Milton will make landfall either on or near the Tampa Bay or Sarasota areas, likely as a formidable Category 3 hurricane. Although predictions as to Milton's landfall location and timing have oscillated somewhat since Monday, when the storm underwent rapid changes, forecasts have remained fairly steady as far as the hurricane's intensity when it strikes land. Milton's wind speeds at that time are expected to fall to about 125 mph, according to the hurricane center. For impacted places, that could be devastating.
Tampa-area streets Tuesday were lined with miles of potentially deadly debris from Hurricane Helene. The goal, according to Tampa Mayor Jane Castor, was to have most of it cleared by Tuesday, but the city fell short on that.
"Rumors that we don't have enough resources, that could not be further from the truth," Castor said in a news briefing Tuesday. "The federal government, the state government, the county, the city, private entities, are working hand-in-hand, first and foremost, to get that household debris up and out of the way, and secondly to make sure everyone is safe as we endure whatever Milton brings our way."
Exactly where the hurricane is centered when Milton arrives on land may determine the extent of the destruction it wreaks on the Tampa Bay area, mainly linked to storm surge, wrote CBS News meteorologist Nikki Nolan.
"The forecast track with Milton has its sights set on the western coast of Florida, but the position of the center of the storm, or the 'eye,' can determine how catastrophic the impacts are on the Tampa Bay area," Nolan said. "The eastern side of the eye is considered the 'dirty side' of the storm, which is where the winds tend to be the strongest. As the forecast track shifts northward, the dirty side then falls over Tampa Bay."
That creates more serious risks of storm surge in the region, according to Nolan. Forecasts have warned Milton's arrival could bring potentially life-threatening storm surge to the Florida Gulf Coast, which is particularly vulnerable to severe surges because of its geography, and that is especially true for Tampa Bay. Multiple people died in Tampa from storm surge caused by Hurricane Helene, and that storm did not even hit the city directly.
A storm track into or just north of St. Petersburg brings winds that funnel an already high water up into the city. A track just a few miles south actually pulls the water out of the Bay, leading to minimal storm surge.
John Antapasis, emergency management director for the city of Tampa, knows just how vulnerable his city is to hurricanes.
"There's a lot of vulnerable infrastructure here, and the geography itself that potentially, you know, puts us just much at more risk," Antapasis said.
Antapasis said the storm surge is the one thing that makes him worry at night when he goes to sleep.
"It's the storm surge on this one," Antapasis said. "Ultimately our first responders, we're going to be here, we're going to try to save lives, protect property first. And then we will go through that recovery process if that does happen to us."
Eurydice Stanley rode out Helene in her Tampa-area home, but evacuated to Tallahassee Monday.
"People are staying at home, but these storms are different, ask the citizens of of Asheville, North Carolina," Stanley told CBS News.
And while millions of people in the Tampa area are under a mandatory evacuation, and many have left, some aren't going anywhere. Bridgit Budd, who resides on Sanibel Island, is among those who says she is staying. Budd and her husband have ridden out for major hurricanes before, including Helene.
"There's just no place I would rather be," Budd told CBS News. "You know, I don't suggest it for anybody. I'm not promoting it."
Storm surge forecast
Hurricane and storm surge warnings expanded Tuesday to include large sections of Florida's eastern coast, which could potentially see surges up to feet above ground level as Milton tracks inland over the state after making landfall, on its route toward the Atlantic. Coastal places in Georgia and South Carolina could experience several feet of storm surge too.
Storm surge threats are a major concern for the west coast of Florida. In addition to hurricane warnings, storm surge warnings were also in effect from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay.
A storm surge warning was also in effect for Florida's east coast, from the Sebastian Inlet in Florida, north to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.
The hurricane center has warned that storm surge in the Tampa Bay area could reach 10 to 15 feet above ground level.
"The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves," the hurricane center said in a Monday afternoon advisory. "Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances."
Forecasts show heavy rainfall, up to 15 inches in certain areas, could cause "considerable flash, urban and areal flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding" in parts of the Florida peninsula though Thursday.
Evacuation zones
Mass evacuations were underway as Florida airports canceled flights, and schools as far south as Miami-Dade, Broward and Monroe counties announced closures ahead of Milton's expected arrival. Thousands fled the Tampa Bay area and parts of the surrounding region were under mandatory evacuation orders issued Monday and Tuesday.
As tens of thousands flee Milton's path, the Georgia Department of Transportation reported that it saw traffic volumes as of 8 a.m. Tuesday on Interstate 75 that were 280% higher than normal between the Georgia and Florida state line.
The Port of Key West has closed ahead of Milton's arrival, CBS Miami reports, with cruise ships bypassing the port. Several Orlando area theme parks were also shuttering, including Walt Disney World, SeaWorld Orlando and Universal Studios Florida.
United said Tuesday night that it had added 18 extra flights out of Florida, as well larger aircraft on four of those flights in an effort to serve as many customers as possible. It said all flights out of Tampa, Fort Myers and Sarasota were full through Thursday.
Aviation analytics company Circium reported that 80% of flights from Tampa were canceled Tuesday.
"We are talking about the possibility now of a direct hit," said Tampa Mayor Jane Castor in a CNN interview Monday, where she urged people to heed storm warnings and follow evacuation protocols. Castor noted that storm surge caused by Helene, while destructive, was significantly lower than the surge forecast for a vast stretch of Florida's western coast, including Tampa, with Milton.
"Helene was a wake-up call. This is literally catastrophic. And I can say, without any dramatization whatsoever, if you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you're going to die," Castor said.
President Biden echoed the mayor Tuesday morning as the White House announced he would postpone a trip to Germany and Angola to monitor the response to Hurricane Milton.
"I've urged everyone, everyone currently located in Hurricane Milton's path to listen to local officials and follow safety instructions," Mr. Biden said. "... If you're under evacuation orders, you should evacuate now, now, now — you should have already evacuated. It's a matter of life and death."
Mr. Biden said he preapproved emergency declarations in Florida and sent Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell to the state Monday. The president also said he has spoken to all political leaders in the region expected to feel Milton's impacts and told them, "Anything they ask for, they can get."
Hurricane Milton live radar map
This radar loop from CBS Miami shows weather conditions over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico as Hurricane Milton approaches.