Holmes: The Jeff Samardzija Conundrum
By Laurence W. Holmes--
(CBS) In June 2104, the Cubs tried to lock up right-hander Jeff Samardzija long term, with most reports indicating their offer between $75 million and $85 million over five years. At the time, Samardzija was envisioning money similar to that of Matt Cain and Homer Bailey, who each received long-term deals worth more than $100 million. That led to Samardizja declining the offers and being traded by the Cubs to the Athletics for a package headlined by shortstop Addison Russell.
In the offseason, White Sox traded infielder Marcus Semien for Samardzija, who took a page out of Jimmy Butler and Max Scherzer's book with his determination to reach free agency. He bet on himself.
That bet could mean he's in a White Sox uniform in 2016.
When this year's trade deadline arrived, White Sox general manager Rick Hahn decided that keeping Samardzija was the right move. At the time, the White Sox thought they might be able to chase down an AL wild-card spot and needed all hands on deck. The idea was if the White Sox couldn't get good value in the trade market for Samardzija, they could extend him a qualifying offer and receive a compensatory pick between the first and second round of the 2016 draft.
So either the team rolls dice with someone else's prospect or tries to find its own. Samardzija is the dude at the craps table who's on fire, and the White Sox put a big chunk of change on the "pass line."
Here's the problem: Samardzija's bet may have backfired, and the White Sox might be dragged down with him. Here comes that "7."
Samardzija hasn't looked commanding or comfortable all year, and the month of August was horrific for him. Opponents had a .338/.401/.604 slash line against Samardzija, which adds up to a 1.006 OPS. He has an 8.82 ERA in August with a 1.78 WHIP.
Samardzija's season hasn't been awful, but it hasn't been good -- and there are some other numbers that are equally as troubling. He's getting crushed in the first inning, when he sports a 7.67 ERA and his opponents' slash line is .354/.403/.593. He's been hit early all year and once the bleeding starts, neither he, pitching coach Don Cooper nor manager Robin Ventura has figured out a way to stop it.
Getting a nine-figure deal looks like a long shot for Samardzija. Granted, his career numbers still track with Cain and Bailey (in fact, his career numbers are better than Bailey's), but both of those guys were under 30 when they signed their deals. Samardzija will be 31 when next season begins. He's been durable. No. 3 starters who can eat up 200 innings are valuable, but his dropoff this year is drastic. Baseball executives tend to overspend on pitching, but this season could've cost Samardzija between $30 million to $50 million, depending on whom you ask.
Which leads us to the end of the year. The qualifying offer to Samardzija would be close to $16 million for one more year on the South Side. That's almost a 40 percent raise over the nearly $10 million he's making this season.
Samardzija is supremely confident, sometimes rising to the level of arrogance. And you wonder if that confidence fuels him doubling down on himself. He could take the qualifying offer, stay with the White Sox and try the whole thing again.
I mean, he is the "Captain of Attitude."
Laurence Holmes hosts the Laurence Holmes Show on 670 The Score. Follow him on Twitter @LaurenceWHolmes.