Grocery prices are poised to come down, but not until after the holidays

CHICAGO (CBS) -- Between supply chain problems, COVID concerns, and inflation – among other factors – your grocery bill has likely been sky-high over the last year.

But as CBS 2's Chris Tye reported Wednesday, those who study where this trend is going say there is reason for hope.

Experts say the good news is relief is coming. But the bad news is relief won't be coming in time for holiday dinners.

As it stands now, two things remain elevated inside the massive Greater Chicago Food Depository - demand for food by struggling Chicagoans, and the cost of that food.

"There are a couple of reasons that we can be hopeful, but not just yet," said Jim Conwell of the Greater Chicago Food Depository.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations shows:

• Salmon prices are down 40 percent from recent highs. 
• Chicken is down 25 percent since January.
• Chickpeas are down 20 percent since July.
• Cooking oils in Asia are down 50 percent since summer.

"Price on the international markets have been dropping over the past few months," said Rob Vos of the International Food Policy Research Institute.

Tomato prices have dropped in Europe, and part of that is because of mother nature.

"Now they're coming down in part because of the better prospect of harvest, but also because a lot of countries imposed export bans on food exports," Vos said.

With those bans now lifted and global energy prices coming down, prices on everyday items in your shopping cart are likely to follow.

"But the reality is it could be many more months before most consumers see a difference on their grocery bill," said Conwell.

So the relief won't make it in time for the holidays, but there is hope that the new year will take a smaller bite out of our budget.

"We are expecting that the soonest we could see relief is sometime in the new year," Conwell said.

Another complicating factor in all this is the war in Ukraine - particularly as it pertains to grains.

Overall, the grocery price issue is a complicated puzzle that hopefully looks a little clearer and lot less costly in 2023.