Durkin's Preview: Bears-Packers
By Dan Durkin-
(CBS) -- On the Tuesday prior to the first meeting between the Bears-Packers back in Week 4, Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers offered five simple letters to a fan base panicked by the team's 1-2 start: "R-E-L-A-X." Prescient advice from Rodgers, who went on to surgically dissect the Bears' defense, posting a near-perfect passer rating (151.2) in a 38-17 rout at Soldier Field.
What's hard to believe is those numbers weren't even Rodgers' best performance over the five-game span, as he posted a 154.5 passer rating against the Panthers in Week 7.
Since offering that calming message of reassurance, Rodgers has led Green Bay to a 4-1 record, during which, the offense is averaging 34 points per game while Rodgers himself is completing 73 percent of his passes, 14 of which have gone for touchdowns versus two interceptions and a sparkling 128 passer rating.
Bears fans, on the other hand, have watched their high expectations for the season slowly dissipate. Losers of four of their last five, the Bears sit in last place in the NFC North with their season on the brink heading into Sunday night's primetime matchup at Lambeau Field.
Head coach Marc Trestman and general manager Phil Emery addressed the media the day after the team's last game, an embarrassing 51-23 loss at the hands of the New England Patriots, but their message wasn't as succinct as that of Rodgers. The message was an acknowledgement of failures with an underlying tone of disappointment.
Sunday night's game is the 190th meeting between these two teams and is the longest-running rivalry in the league. But the recent history has been decidedly tipped in the Packers favor, who have won ten of the last 12. Rodgers has an 11-3 all-time record against the Bears.
Thus, this game serves as not only the defining moment for the Bears' current season, but also as a true up for Emery's plan to close the widening gap that exists between the two organizations.
Early on in the first matchup, these two offenses went blow-for-blow. The Bears' opening drive of the game was their most impressive of the season. They dictated tempo in a balanced, systematic 15-play, 80-yard drive that took eight minutes and 30 second off the clock and capped it off with seven points. The game plan was correct and clear -- attempt to control the clock to keep Rodgers and co. on the sidelines.
The issue was the Packers' offense was equally primed to score, just in more efficient fashion.
The Bears had two red zone drives stall in the second quarter, one of which resulted in a field goal, the other in no points at all. Settling for field goals or no points at all against the Packers are wasted opportunities. In the second half, the Bears turned the ball over twice, which opened the flood gates. The Packers didn't punt once in the game and scored on six of their seven drives, with the only miscue coming on a blocked field goal by Bears defensive end Willie Young.
In order to have a chance against Green Bay this Sunday, the Bears must again attack the soft underbelly of the Packers' defense, which is allowing a league-high 153 rushing yards per game. Running back Matt Forte should be the centerpiece of the attack. Forte has three straight 100-yard rushing games against the Packers.
Establishing the run will help minimize the costly turnovers that have derailed the Bears' offense this season and set up play-action shots down the field for an offense lacking an explosive passing element.
Quarterback Jay Cutler's numbers against the Packers are stomach-turning for Bears fans. In ten career games, Cutler has thrown 13 touchdowns versus 19 interceptions, a 67 passer rating with only one win, back in 2010 at Soldier Field, a game in which the Packers committed 18 penalties.
Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom Capers has been able to consistently confuse Cutler with hybrid coverages and pre-snap looks that are rotated into a different schemes after the snap.
"A lot of coverage looks," Cutler said of Capers' scheme. "A lot of different fronts, too. Their biggest thing is, they're gonna try to confuse you. The way their offense is playing and putting points on the board, other teams have to pass the ball just to try to keep up. If a defense knows you have to throw the ball, it's going to be tough. They're going to throw some stuff at you and make it difficult."
Defensively, the Bears must find a way to slow down the Packers' potent passing attack. Over the past five games, opposing quarterbacks have had their way with the Bears' defense, completing 70 percent of their passes with a 116 passer rating.
The Bears talk about striving for complementary football, which means the rush and coverage working in tandem, which hasn't been the case. With Rodgers dealing with a hamstring injury it is even more vital for the Bears to get him off his spot and moving in the pocket, which means a strong interior push from their defensive tackles. The Packers may be playing without their top two guards, so that could be an area the Bears can capitalize on.
Defensive end Jared Allen, who has historically played well against the Packers, missed the Week 4 matchup, but is good to go for this week.
Both Trestman and Emery talked about needing to play more matchups with their players, so might they borrow a page from the Saints' defensive playbook to stop wide receiver Jordy Nelson? They would be wise to match Kyle Fuller up against Nelson and Tim Jennings against Randall Cobb to disrupt Rodgers' timing and force him to look other places to move the football.
It's not a stretch to say the Bears season is on the line. While it's only a one-game difference, 4-5 looks much better than 3-6 and could help calm the growing tension within the locker room.
Dan Durkin covers the Bears for CBSChicago.com and is a frequent contributor to 670 The Score. Follow him on Twitter at @djdurkin.