Durkin's Preview: Bears At A Crossroads
By Dan Durkin-
(CBS) It's only Week 6, yet the Bears already find themselves at a crossroads. They could be 4-1 just as easily as they could be 1-4, so their 2-3 record is fitting.
They've earned their sub-par mark.
A handful of self-inflicted, damaging plays -- by their offense, the supposed strength of the team -- have defined their season thus far.
Given the progress made by the offense in year one of the Marc Trestman era and the infusion of new talent and coaching on defense, this team is short on excuses.
Injuries have played a part, but they're not endemic to the Bears. Football is a violent sport, and every team in the league deals with roster attrition. A lack of experience isn't the issue, as the Bears have the league's third-oldest roster.
The bottom line is, in five tries, the Bears have yet to put together four quarters of football. If they're unable to correct the course this weekend in Atlanta, the season could quickly take a turn in the wrong direction.
Fortunately, this week's opponent is not without struggles of its own. Many of Atlanta's issues mirror those of Chicago. The 2-3 Falcons are also built to win games with their offense and protect their vulnerable defense. But like the Bears, they've been careless with the football at inopportune times and have recently failed to score points late in games.
Each team made large financial investments in their quarterbacks. Atlanta's Matt Ryan inked the league's second-richest quarterback contract, while Chicago's Jay Cutler signed the seventh-richest. Yet, heading into Week 6, they were tied for the league lead with six interceptions apiece.
As you start comparing these two teams, there are vulnerabilities each offense can exploit.
For Chicago, the key will be attacking the soft underbelly of the Falcons defense, which is allowing the league's second-most rushing yards per game (148). No team has given up more rushing touchdowns this year than the Falcons (10). Over the last two weeks, Bears running back Matt Forte has 337 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown.
Given the injuries the Bears are dealing with on defense and the crowd noise at the Georgia Dome, they will look to establish the ground game and see if they can run against seven- and eight-man fronts. If they're successful, opportunities will arise down the field.
The Falcons are also struggling to create pressure with their front four, ranking 29th in the league with four total sacks. Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan tries to manufacture pressure with hybrid fronts and exotic pressure packages on third down.
"Mike is one of those guys, he does a lot with scheme," Trestman said. "He moves people around on first and second down with their 30-package, they do match up (play man coverage) in nickel, you'll see that. Their nickel package has a variety of different looks, from the double A's (linebackers in the A-gaps), where they've got people inside, they'll bring safeties, they play zero (Cover-0, no safety help over the top) on the field. They've got all sorts of different things going on."
But the Falcons have had coverage busts behind their blitzes this season, which have led to explosive passing plays for their opponents. Seeing how Cutler has been generous with the ball to opponents this season, the Falcons will be tempted to pressure him, but they must be wise about exposing the back end of their defense. For the first time since the season opener, Bears' receivers are finally at full strength, and they will get center Roberto Garza back.
The Falcons offense leads the league with 28 plays of 20 or more yards. Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter uses his four verticals base passing concept to put opposing safeties in a bind and give Ryan quick reads on where to go with the football.
The Falcons have dealt with numerous injuries along the offensive line, yet Ryan has only been sacked six times on the season. That's a testament to his quick decision-making skills and the willingness of offensive line coach Mike Tice to use maximum protection in order to give Ryan proper time to survey the field and find weapons like Julio Jones and Roddy White down the field.
Over the past two weeks, the Bears' zone defense has been picked apart by Aaron Rodgers and Cam Netwon. The Bears front four hasn't been able to get sustained pressure on its own, which has allowed receivers to settle into the soft voids of the defense for steady chunks of yardage.
Sunday's contest in Atlanta is a "prove it" game for the Bears. Falling to 2-4 with two of their next three games against Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers could be fatal for a team with playoff aspirations.
Dan Durkin covers the Bears for CBSChicago.com and is a frequent contributor to 670 The Score. Follow him on Twitter at @djdurkin.