Cubs Playoff Odds: Still Strong, According To Mathematical Models
(CBS) After a 3-3 road trip out West, Cubs manager Joe Maddon summed up his feelings succinctly.
"I'll take it," he said.
At the forefront of Maddon's mind was this: The Cubs remain in first place in the NL Central, a game up on the Cardinals, two games up on the Brewers and four games ahead of the Pirates. After the two clubs were tied entering Sunday, Chicago edged back in front of St. Louis with a 7-2 win against Arizona while the Cardinals fell to the Braves.
But just how good are the Cubs' chances of winning the NL Central? Still pretty good.
The Cubs have a 77.5 percent chance of winning the division, per Fangraphs, which pegs Chicago's playoff odds at 86.3 percent when factoring in the wild card too. The Cubs are 3.5 games back of the Rockies and Diamondbacks, who are hold the two wild-card spots currently with identical 65-52 records.
FiveThirtyEight gives the Cubs a 65 percent chance of winning the NL Central and a 76 shot at making the playoffs.
Baseball Prospectus' numbers are similar to those of FiveThirtyEight, as it pegs the Cubs' division title chances at 63.1 percent and playoff chances at 72.7 percent.
A big reason the Cubs have mathematically favorable odds to win the division is because of a soft schedule in the final month-and-a-half. The Cubs' next 13 games come against last-place teams -- seven against the Reds, three against the Blue Jays and three against the Phillies.