New Winter Outlook: What you can expect this winter in Chicago
CHICAGO (CBS) -- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its annual Winter Weather Outlook on Thursday.
For the Chicago area, the outlook shows the potential for a drier and slightly milder winter than average.
Below-average precipitation is expected this winter due to an El Niño weather pattern. El Niño occurs when warmer-than-average water temperatures are recorded near the equator in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon changes weather patterns globally, including here in Chicago. NOAA reports that this particular El Niño could be strong.
El Niño positions the jet stream south of us, making for a less active weather pattern. This leads to a drier-than-average pattern for parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes and warmer-than-average temperatures as well.
"While this is not meant to be a snowfall forecast, a warmer winter with below-average precipitation could lead to below normal snowfall in our area." says the local National Weather Service.
On average, Chicago sees about 38 inches of snowfall annually, with January historically the snowiest month. Highs are normally in the low to mid-30s, lows in the teens and 20s, with January also being the coldest month.
"In addition, local climate data for past strong El Niño episodes also shown a tendency for below normal snowfall," added the National Weather Service.
NOAA considers Dec. 1 to Feb. 29 as "meteorological winter" therefore, the outlook is for this time period.
Although several periods of very cold weather is expected in Chicago, episodes of above freezing conditions could keep Lake Michigan from completely freezing. That factor would make for more lake effect snow events for areas downwind of the lake in both Chicago and northwestern Indiana.