Chicago street festivals underestimate crowds by tens of thousands, endangering attendees
CHICAGO (CBS) — A fun evening at Vegandale Festival in Grant Park turned into a stampede as people ran for their lives, the change coming in a matter of seconds.
Social media videos of the stampede at the June 23 event went viral, the clips showing people running and screaming amid fears of a shooting or fight. An attendee told Block Club her friend tripped and injured her ear, leaving her bloodied, as she tried to get away. Metal barriers were overturned and belongings left behind as people fled.
"I turned around and I was like, 'Oh shit' ... . It was like everybody at the concert was running at us, and you could hear people screaming," said the attendee, who did not want to be identified.
Even before that chaos, security seemed inadequate and workers weren't properly screening people's bags and backpacks, attendees said. First responders seemed to struggle to handle the number of people passing out in the large crowd during the hot weekend, an attendee said.
Editor's note: This story was produced under a collaboration by Block Club Chicago, a nonprofit newsroom focused on Chicago's neighborhoods, and CBS News Chicago, a TV station serving Chicago with breaking news, investigations and community journalism.
Vegandale organizers were prepared to manage a crowd of 16,000 people, according to permit data from the city's Department of Cultural Affairs and Special Events. But advertisements for the event called for a crowd of 30,000.
Estimating crowds is a vital part of the public safety preparations — and is required by law — when city officials and event organizers plan any kind of event, from a parade to a walkathon. Crowd estimates are used to determine how many ambulances and medical personnel need to be at an event, and potentially how much police and private security resources will be needed to keep people safe.
But CBS News Chicago and Block Club found festival organizers are submitting paperwork to the city saying they expect smaller crowds — while their advertisements say tens of thousands more people will come. The discrepancy can create potentially dangerous conditions, an expert said. In Chicago, safety planning for street festivals relies on crowd estimates, according to at least two city ordinances related to special events.
Department of Cultural Affairs and Special Events officials are "actively addressing the complaints received about Vegandale, coordinating with other City departments, and planning a meeting with the event organizers," a department spokesperson said in an emailed statement.
Vegandale officials declined to answer questions on the incident and crowd size discrepancies, but they said they followed all protocols and guidelines set forth by the city.
But it's not just Vegandale. An analysis of city permit data from 2021-2024 reveals festival organizers have repeatedly advertised for crowds tens of thousands higher than what they estimate on their permit applications.
Organizers of Northalsted Market Days, which was this weekend in Lakeview, told city officials 20,000 people were expected to attend — but the event's advertising said there would be crowds of 150,000. The same organizers told the city only 5,000 would attend its Pride Fest in late June while their advertising said there'd be 100,000 people.
Other examples:
- Taste of Randolph 2022's permit said it would have 9,000 people, but it advertised a crowd of 100,000 people to food vendor applicants.
- Southport Art Fest 2024's permit said 900 people while it advertised 30,000 to artist applicants.
- Windy City Hot Dog Fest's 2024 permit said it would have 1,500 people while advertising 40,000 attendees.
- Midsommarfest's 2024 permit said it'd have 18,000 people while it advertised 80,000.
The discrepancy means the organizers have told city officials they're prepared for crowds far smaller than what they've promised to vendors.
Data shows the number of festivals being held in the city is growing — while the attendance reported by organizers fell steeply.
The city held about 250 festivals in 2021, which rose nearly 50 percent to about 370 festivals in 2024, according to an analysis of data from the city's special events department. During that same period, overall festival attendance reported to the city fell from an average of 19,600 people to an average of 8,700 — a 56% drop.
An analysis of marketing materials for two of Chicago's largest special event producers, Chicago Events Management and Star Events, shows their crowd estimates on permit applications are much smaller than what they advertise online.
The practice raises public safety concerns about whether the events are properly staffed as street festivals grow from small fairs to full-blown productions.
Low estimates putting people at risk, experts say
Hank Zemola, CEO of Special Events Management, has been involved in producing Chicago special events since the 1970s. His company is listed on at least 23 permit applications this year, including for some of the city's most popular street festivals: Pride Fest, Northalsted Market Days, Ribfest, Taste of Greektown, Chinatown Summer Fair and more.
Budgeting and safety are No. 1 priorities when the company organizes a street festival, Zemola said.
"These are fights that we have sometimes … . People go, 'Security is so expensive.' But you can't lessen security. It's not an option. We tell people don't do the event if you don't have good security," Zemola said.
The amount of security needed for an event is determined by various factors, including the event's history, location, current events and crime trends, Zemola said. The company is required to present its security plan to the corresponding police district for feedback before the city's events department will issue it a permit.
City law dictates "the determination of the need for additional city police services shall be based on the expected pedestrian and vehicular traffic and congestion, considering the following factors: estimated attendance, density of area, size of area, number of street closures and affected intersections."
Estimated attendance also determines how many ambulances, EMTs, and medical tents are required for the event, according to city code.
Special Events Management uses a formula to determine its crowd estimates for every street festival. The formula is based on taking the average street size and subtracting the square feet of the stages and vendor tents, while also factoring in 7 square feet of space per person. An example:
Average street is 660 feet times 40 feet = 26,000. Subtract the stage area (200 times 40=8,000) and tents (60 minus 10 times 10 tents=6,000). So, 26,000-14,000=12,000 square feet. Divide that by 7 feet per person, so there'd be an estimated 1,714 people in a crowded situation per block.
It's an equation that Zemola swears by and said is what determined the 5,000 estimated crowd size for Pride Fest on its permit application, despite online marketing material boasting of 100,000 attendees.
When asked about why marketing materials for Northalsted Market Days said there'd be 150,000 attendees and materials for Chinatown Summer Fair said there'd be 40,000 — far more than what the organizers had put on their permit applications — Zemola stood by his company's crowd estimates on the applications.
"I know exactly where this came from. This came from a marketing person going, 'Oh, this event's so big and they'll sell more.' ... It's incorrect," Zemola said.
There's a disconnect between marketing teams — in-house and third-party — and they inflate the events' crowd numbers for hype, Zemola said.
The marketing figures "are false numbers, and they're done for, really, sensationalism, which is dangerous," Zemola said.
Zemloa said he's been having conversations with marketers to remove inflated crowd numbers from promotional material. The inflated marketing numbers have also caused insurance companies to call Special Events Management looking for answers, Zemola said.
"I have to make this argument, and I show receipts … . 'No, this is not happening.' … And I explain to them … but, you know, they're underwriters, and they want to know what risks they're underwriting, so I understand that," Zemola said.
CBS News Chicago and Block Club put Zemola's formula to the test with expert crowd scientist Keith Still. Still has researched crowd safety and risk analysis for 30 years, serving as a special adviser to foreign governments and emergency response agencies and teaching short courses around the world on risk awareness and reporting.
Based on a "crude estimate" of the length and width of the road, the number of city blocks, a two-hour dwell time for attendees and the duration of the event, Still estimates Pride Fest could hold about 6,660 attendees per day, or 13,320 for the two-day event.
Still's estimation of Pride Fest's crowd is more than twice the estimate of 5,000 people listed on the event's permit application.
Still warned there are dangers associated with marketing bigger crowds, including putting event companies at risk of breaking city code.
"You've asked for a permit of 5,000, but you've told us there were 10,000 there. You're twice the capacity … . It can be very dangerous for them if there's an accident, an incident or an injury due to overcrowding," Still said of enlarged marketing numbers.
There's also a risk of festivals not having enough police, security and first responders if their permit application downplayed the actual crowd size, Still said.
CBS News Chicago and Block Club also submitted drone footage of the Pride Fest crowd to Lauretta AI, an AI-driven video analytics company used by the Department of Homeland Security. The footage, taken by CBS News Chicago, shows the event at about 3:30 p.m. June 22 — after large crowds dispersed following a performance by JoJo Siwa at 2 p.m.
"I found out I set the record for most people in attendance at Chicago Pride at 2 a [expletive] clock in the afternoon… THAT IS NUTTY," Siwa posted on her Instagram.
Officials with Lauretta estimate a crowd of 7,040 people were at Pride Fest at the time the drone footage was taken —more than the 5,000 estimation listed on the permit application.
Alternatives for safer events
Chicago street festivals have taken many forms over the years, but city officials have gotten the application process down to an assembly-line process. For events on city streets and sidewalks, organizers have to file an application with the city's events department. The process requires organizers pay a $100 application fee, have a site and security plan and plan for street closures and stage setups. Organizers have to list their food and merchandise vendors and indicate if alcohol will be served.
The crowd estimates are supposed to be used to plan for the events, assess the event's public safety needs and determine whether the costs to the city will require payment from organizers, according to city law. That's where incorrect estimates can cause issues.
An event's crowd estimates are used to determine the required number of EMS workers, ambulances and medical tents required to be on site. If a festival has a crowd estimation of more than 7,500 people, it's required to have a "specialized staffing plan," including approval by the Fire Department's Office of Special Events.
Not all event organizers use formulas for their crowd estimates. Square Roots, a three-day festival on Lincoln Avenue between Wilson and Monstrose, uses clickers to count attendees to make its estimate — and safety planning — as accurate as possible.
Square Roots Festival is organized by and benefits the Lincoln Square Ravenswood Chamber of Commerce and the Old Town School of Folk Music. The two groups contract with Big Buzz Idea Group to organize the annual festival.
Dave Zibell, director of marketing for the Old Town School of Folk Music, said event staff have hand counted 35,000-37,0000 attendees across all three days of the festival over the years. Permits submitted for the festival from 2022-2024 list a 35,000 crowd estimate.
"We do try to be as accurate as possible. I think it's appropriate for leaders of nonprofit organizations who work with other small businesses to protect the health of a fundraiser like this," Zibell said.
Rudy Flores, CEO of the Lincoln Square Ravenswood Chamber of Commerce, said in the 13 years he's been with the chamber he's been surprised that organizations don't use more hands-on techniques for crowd estimates.
"It's always shocked me that there isn't an answer to how attendees are counted. Because I'm like, 'We have the little counters at the gate. Somebody's doing that.' And so it's not completely scientific, but it's better than anybody else that I know," Flores said.
This year, the Fire Department required Square Roots to have two ambulances, four EMTs and one medical tent onsite. The total cost was $10,000, Flores said.
"You're paying for the people. Knock on wood, nothing happens. So then they're literally getting paid to sit there and do nothing, and these two ambulances [are] also sitting there to do nothing for the whole weekend — which is great, right? You don't want to use them. … But that's a lot of money that you're putting out there just in case," Flores said.
Star Events, the second-largest festival producer in Chicago, was listed as the event organizer on at least 12 permit applications this year. Its most popular festivals include Hyde Park Jazz Festivals, Sundays on State, Southport Art Festival and, previously, Taste of Randolph.
On permits for Hyde Park Jazz Festival, the company estimated attendance of 1,500-3,000 people from 2021 through 2024 despite advertising crowds of 20,000 on its website. Southport Art Festival listed 900 people for estimated attendance for 2024, but it advertised crowds of 30,000 on its vendor application.
Taste of Randolph's 2022 permit application estimated an attendance of 9,000 people, but it advertised 100,000 attendees on its vendor application.
Star Events declined a sit-down interview with CBS News Chicago and Block Club, but the Hyde Park festival's executive director explained why there might appear to be discrepancies in its Hyde Park permit application.
"Star Events obtains permits for the outdoor area on the Midway Plaisance for the Hyde Park Jazz Festival. There are 10 other venues for the Festival which do not involve permits. The attendance for the midway is only one part of the overall attendance," Kate Dumbleton, executive director of the Hyde Park Jazz Festival, said in a statement.
Star Events did not answer specific questions about discrepancies related to Southport Art Festival or Taste of Randolph.
How festivals work
When festivals work well, small business owners and artists can sell their wares at events and gain access to thousands of potential customers. The crowds bolster neighborhood economies and raise awareness of local groups.
But festivals are still an expensive endeavor as organizers pay for security, liability insurance, stage setup and music performers, among other things.
This is why organizers will ask — sometimes aggressively — for suggested donations. But festival organizers are not entirely without city help.
The city deeply discounts the closure of streets for festivals, requiring a $100 fee per day per block if held Downtown and $50 for other parts of the city, according to city ordinance. Filming permits for TV shows to shut down a street can typically run around $500, and permits for developers moving heavy equipment and cranes can run thousands of dollars. Street closure fees help the city pay for road repairs and lost revenue for the city's privatized parking meters.
A Department of Cultural Affairs and Special Events spokesperson confirmed festivals do not pay for lost parking meter revenue.
The city also regularly staffs police, fire, and traffic control personnel for festivals.
City ordinance requires the police commander of special events "shall calculate the estimated hourly cost for the personnel required for the event, and shall charge the applicant for such services" in excess of 12 police shifts.
At last year's City Council budget hearing, police Supt. Larry Snelling said police presence at street festivals was a "major issue, and it is a serious pull on manpower."
For example, in 2023, the Chicago Police Department staffed 67 officers for the Taste of Randolph, 350 officers for Pride Fest, and 80 officers for the Chosen Few Old School Reunion Picnic, all on overtime, according to an analysis of police overtime data obtained through a records request.
The police department "does not provide private security for events, but does provide resources in the areas of the event to ensure the safety of all those living, working and visiting the area," a police spokesperson said in a written statement.
If festivals are partly subsidized by the city, that subsidy has largely benefited the North Side — especially Lakeview, which had 37 festival events, followed by the Near West Side and Lincoln Park, with 36 festivals each.
City agencies aren't alarmed
CBS News Chicago and Block Club reached out to the city's events, police and fire departments for comment on our findings regarding crowd estimates, public safety and permitting processes. The departments declined sit-down interviews; their spokespeople maintain officials are doing their due diligence to ensure safety and proper implementation of city permits.
"All [Department of Cultural Affairs and Special Events] permit applications are evaluated by appropriate City departments before any event is approved," a special events department spokesperson wrote in an emailed statement.
The police department echoed that statement.
"During the preparation for large festivals and parades, [the Police Department] joins fellow City agencies to meet with event organizers to develop safety plans, including assessing whether event organizers need to obtain additional security resources. These safety plans are developed using experience from past events or similar events," a CPD spokesperson wrote in an emailed statement.
The department does not rely on the permit application to determine these safety plans, as officials work with the organizers and partner agencies to evaluate expected attendance and safety concerns that may arise.
But a Chicago Fire Department spokesperson said the agency does use event permits and anticipated crowd sizes to assess an event's EMS needs.
"While the event applicant is responsible for primary health and safety needs within the footprint of the event, if size dictates, [the Fire Department] provides resources to take care of the external perimeter and in the process keeps a watch on the crowd size, weather conditions and overall wellness of those in and near the event footprint with ongoing communications with the private provider and other City departments including OEMC," the spokesperson wrote in an emailed statement.
It won't be long before festival organizers start to file permits for 2025.
And fest organizers are calling for everyone to be accurate with their crowd sizes to maintain access to the public way.
"It's our job as the financial stewards for this festival that we are not doing anything that puts that at risk," Zibell said. "We're obviously prioritizing revenue because it's a huge fundraiser for both of us, but you can't raise funds if you're not allowed to be on the street."