Abbatacola: 8-8 Is In Bears' Future
By Matt Abbatacola-
(CBS) Making predictions for an NFL season is pretty stupid, but I still do it every season. This year I have my beloved Bears finishing at 8-8. Despite the fact the team finished 8-8 last year, I will consider this year's 8-8 record as an improvement over 2013.
Why? Last year's .500 record was a fluke, an anomaly, an oddity of backup quarterback excellence.
Josh McCown didn't have a career year. He had a "play out your butt and get paid" type of unbelievable season. It won't happen again. It can't happen again.
When he started, Jay Cutler had a record of 5-6. He threw for 2,621 yards with a completion rate of 63 percent. He tossed 19 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
McCown played in eight games. He started five and went 3-2. He threw for 1,829 yards with a 66 percent completion rate with 13 touchdowns and just one interception.
Backup quarterbacks shouldn't perform that well. Take the Green Bay Packers and their quarterback situation in 2013 after Aaron Rodgers got hurt. Three guys (Matt Flynn, Scott Tolzien and Seneca Wallace) combined for 2,002 yards with eight touchdowns and 10 interceptions. They only won two of seven games in that stretch of backup ineptitude, losing four games and tying another.
McCown's 13:1 touchdown-to-interception rate wasn't good. It wasn't even very good. It was MVP-caliber type stuff. Peyton Manning threw a pick for every 5.5 touchdowns he tossed. Drew Brees had a pick for every 3.2 touchdowns.
McCown's interception percentage of 0.4 percent in 2013 was by far a career best and well below his 3.4 percent career number. In 2013, Manning finished at 1.5 percent and Brees tied a career-best at 1.8 percent. How good is a 0.4 percent? Tom Brady owns a 2.0 percent career mark. In 2010, Brady finished the year at 0.8 percent -- that season, he went to the Pro Bowl, earned first-team All-Pro honors and was the league MVP.
Let's go back to McCown's completion percentage of 66.5 percent. Going into the 2013 season, he had completed 644 passes in 1,107 attempts for a mark of 58.2 percent.
Chicago's magical high-powered offense scored 445 points – second-best in the league. They finished with a point differential of minus-33.
As amazing as the Bears' offense was in 2013, the defense was the exact opposite.
I started watching Bears games in 1983 – last year was the worst defense I have ever seen played by a Chicago Bears team.
The Bears' defense allowed 478 points, tying for 30th in the league with Washington. Only Minnesota allowed more, with 480.
Looking at profootball-reference.com, the Bears expected won-loss record was 7-9. They managed to finish one game better because of the second-best offense in the league, often led by a backup who had a career year of all career years in the history of the NFL.
The Bears should have won four or five games last year with their backup quarterback playing in eight games and starting five, plus the defense being as bad as it was.
Through that lens, my 8-8 prediction for this year would be a three-game improvement over last season, and that's a success in my book.
Unfortunately, .500 won't get this team into the playoffs.
Matt Abbatacola is a producer, host and update anchor at 670 The Score. Follow him on Twitter @MattAbbatacola.