Why is it 80 degrees in November? Boston smashes temperature record amid unusual weather.
BOSTON - What is happening with the weather in Massachusetts? First it was the drought. Then came the wildfires. And now, we are smashing temperature records.
In fact, we have set a new record high in each of the last three weeks.
Of all the unusual weather that has occurred recently, Wednesday likely took the prize.
First off, we smashed the old high temperature records in Boston and Worcester.
Even more impressive, Wednesday's high of 82 degrees was the latest in the year the city has ever hit or surpassed the 80-degree mark. Therefore, it was also the warmest temperature ever recorded on Nov. 6 or any later date.
This begs the question, what is happening?
What's behind record warmth in November?
We can break it down into three categories:
1. A very persistent and repeating weather pattern.
Week after week we have seen the same atmospheric setup re-establish itself over and over.
A large area of high-pressure blankets much of the northeast bringing us a couple of coolish days and frosty mornings. The high drifts offshore and southwest winds on the back side pump very mild air into New England.
We get a weak cold front to break the heat, and then we start all over again.
It is not all that unusual for a weather pattern to want to repeat itself for a period of weeks or months. Some of our wettest and snowiest periods have come from being on the "wrong side" of a stuck pattern.
2. Drought often leads to warmer temperatures.
When the ground/soil is dry, the sun can heat the air more efficiently. Conversely, when the ground and vegetation are wet, some of the sun's energy (heat) is used to evaporate the moisture and therefore is "lost."
Throughout the history of our country, some of the worst heat waves have been born out of droughts.
3. Climate change.
It is easy to just chalk every extreme weather event up to climate change, but the data tells us we cannot ignore it.
This year Boston has set five new high temperature records and zero low temperature records.
Expanding that out: Over the last 15 years, Blue Hill Observatory has recorded 54 "top 10 warmest" months and just one "top 10 coldest" month.
This includes the first, second, third, sixth, ninth and 10th warmest falls.
While we have seen some warming in all four seasons here in Boston, winter and fall have recorded the most significant and fastest rise.
How long will the warm weather last in Boston?
Where do we go from here? How much longer will we remain stuck in this pattern?
We certainly don't see any major shifts in the next 1-2 weeks.
Temperatures will likely continue to be above average overall.
There is hope for a couple of rain events next week. The first, on Monday, looks light and rather insignificant. Later next week (Thu-Fri) may be our first real shot at getting some truly beneficial rainfall ... time will tell.
Does a warm November mean less snow?
Lastly, there is a meteorological phrase that we often refer to this time of year: "As November goes, so goes the winter." Meaning, the weather in November can often be an indicator of how the winter will go.
This raises the stakes even more over the next several weeks.
A sudden change in pattern could have impacts on the short and long term.
If this pattern lingers on, it could portend a third straight mild and relatively "snow-less" winter.