Why Peyton Manning's 'Struggles' In Cold Weather Are A Little Overrated
By Matt Dolloff, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- If Peyton Manning doesn't perform up to his standards against the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, and the Broncos lose as a result, it could be for several different reasons. It could be his history of bad decisions in crunch time coming back to bite him, it could be his receivers playing soft and dropping easy passes, or it could be his obvious physical deterioration.
One factor that probably will not play a role in Manning's performance, however, is the weather.
It's been a popular narrative throughout Manning's career; "He sucks in cold weather." Even the ultimate Manning apologists, ESPN, have written about it. Just last week before the Broncos faced the Steelers in the Divisional round, ESPN's (ESPN!) Jeff Legwold called cold-weather playoff games Manning's "kryptonite."
That statement is not entirely untrue, but it's far from totally accurate.
The most damning stat is Manning's playoff record when the kickoff temperature is 40 degrees or colder; his teams are 0-5 in those games. However, the first three losses all came in 2005 or earlier, when Manning was just entering his prime. Patriots fans remember two of those games fondly.
A lot has changed since those games. Manning largely overcame his Belichickian demons, won a Super Bowl and made another one, had four neck surgeries, missed a season, returned, set regular season records, and made another Super Bowl. He's a completely different quarterback on a completely different team than he was in those early losses.
This warrants a closer look at Manning's last two playoff losses played in sub-40-degree temperatures at kickoff, the 2014 Divisional Playoff against the Indianapolis Colts and the 2012 Divisional Playoff against the Baltimore Ravens.
The temperature at the start of the 2012 Divisional Playoff was a frigid 13 degrees with a wind chill of 2. Seems like a perfect barometer (pun intended) for Manning's performance in cold weather, right?
Manning started that game by throwing a pick-six on his second pass attempt, which obviously looks bad on paper. But if you go back to the highlights, the ball was right in Eric Decker's hands but got tipped right to the Ravens' Corey Graham. A dangerous throw, but not necessarily Peyton's fault - nor the weather's, unless you're saying Manning got brain-freeze.
On his next drive, Manning completed 5-of-7 passes for 69 yards and finished it off with a 15-yard touchdown to Brandon Stokley (yes, that Brandon Stokley). Two possessions later, in the second quarter, Manning led another touchdown drive, this time completing 5-of-5 for 72 yards and a touchdown pass to Knowshon Moreno. Yes, that's 5-of-5, and the score gave the Broncos a 20-14 lead.
How exactly did the cold affect Manning on those drives? Hard to make the blanket statement that Manning can't play in cold weather when he puts together perfect passing drives in 13-degree weather to put his team on top.
The wheels began to come off for Manning in the third quarter, when he lost two fumbles upon getting sacked. You could argue that the cold affected Manning's grip, but it's hard to say anyone would not be affected by the cold on that kind of play.
The fourth quarter, however, was a bounce-back. Manning completed 7-of-9 passes for 61 yards in the fourth quarter that day, with no turnovers and a touchdown to Demaryius Thomas to put the Broncos up again, 34-28. Where was the cold weather issue then?
Of course, the play most people would remember from this game is Manning's interception in overtime, again to Graham. A bad play, no doubt, considering Graham was in better position to make the catch than the receiver, but not necessarily a decision born of the cold.
What about Manning's performance in the 2014 Divisional Playoff against the Colts? With the temperature at 40 degrees at kickoff, Manning completed 3-of-4 passes for 36 yards and a touchdown to Demaryius Thomas on the Broncos' first drive. That would be the last time the Broncos found the end zone, as they lost 24-13, but it wasn't necessarily because of Manning's own play. He completed 19-of-27 passes for 140 yards in the second half and, despite the effort being futile, completed his last six passes in a row. Not exactly the kind of performance you'd expect from a QB who just can't play in the cold.
If it's not the cold weather that's affecting Manning in these games, what is? The answer is simple: it's nerves. Bad weather can certainly play a role in making Manning uncomfortable, but he has proven, even in his losses, that he's capable of putting together good drives in freezing temperatures. Manning's inconsistent playoff career can mainly be attributed to his struggles to respond well to adversity.
It doesn't matter if it's 0 or 100 degrees; the bigger the situation, the more uncomfortable Manning gets. But, contrary to the popular conception about his performance in the cold, he has shown in recent games that he can make enough plays to put his team on top in those conditions.
If Manning struggles on Sunday - and I still believe he will - it will be because of his mental jitters and physical decline. It will have nothing to do with the weather. The current forecast predicts a temperature over 40 degrees, anyway, but also an 8 percent chance of snow later in the afternoon. But if anything, snow would favor the Broncos and their superior defense and running game, despite Tom Brady's uncanny ability to elevate his game in the cold.
If there's anyone that Broncos fans should worry about being affected by the cold, it's Demaryius Thomas. Manning's No. 1 weapon has earned a bit of a "soft" label that he needs to shed sooner rather than later, and it could begin with a big game on Sunday against the Patriots. But, while he did catch two touchdowns in the two Divisional round games, he caught just 8 of 19 targets overall. He caught just 4 of 8 targets last Sunday against the Steelers, with one of them credited as a drop, and was practically invisible in Week 12 against the Patriots.
If you're hoping for the weather to affect the Broncos, you're looking at the wrong player. Manning has yet to win a cold-weather playoff game in his career, but that doesn't mean it's all bad. If anyone needs to overcome the cold, it's Demaryius.
Manning may struggle for a number of reasons on Sunday, but the weather will not be one of them.
Matt Dolloff is a writer for CBSBostonSports.com. His opinions do not necessarily reflect that of CBS or 98.5 The Sports Hub. Follow him on Twitter @mattdolloff and email him at mdolloff@985thesportshub.com.