What To Watch For When Patriots Visit Jets
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- When scores of pundits and prognosticators were penning their 19-0 columns this past summer, it's a fair assumption to say they never predicted they'd be seeing a Week 6 battle for first place taking place between the Patriots and Jets.
Yet here we are.
Locked in a three-way tie atop the AFC East along with the idle Bills, the Patriots and Jets certainly aren't where we expected them to be for this first meeting of the year. After all, the idea that the Jets would or could go 0-16 was pounded just as loudly and as often as the Patriots' own 16-0 possibility.
It just goes to show you what preseason predictions mean once the season begins.
As for what will happen when this particular game begins, here are four items to be on the lookout for on Sunday afternoon in the Meadowlands.
Protection
Tom Brady has taken too many hits this year -- more hits than any quarterback at any age can withstand if the pace keeps up for the entire season. As a result, he's dealing with what's been reported as a sprained left shoulder. He dismissed any and all worry about the injury this past week at his press conference, but it is at the very least a cautionary flag for a team that has failed to protect the quarterback this year.
While it's easy to point at individual missed blocking assignments to ascribe blame for some of the hits Brady's taken, the quarterback explained that it's more about how the team is playing overall.
"I think the key is you've got to play the game on your terms," Brady explained. "I think we haven't done a great job of that, and not playing great football early in the game doesn't really get you the lead, so you're trying to fight and claw back the whole way, throw the ball. You know, your run-pass ratio gets way out of balance, so you're throwing it all the time, which we've been doing, and it just gives them more opportunity."
He's not wrong. Heading into Week 6, Brady was tied for having thrown the third-most passes on the year. He's been remarkably successful (leading the NFL in passing yards, ranking second in yards per attempt and passer rating), but he's also been exposed more often than the Patriots should want.
The Patriots might be able to keep Brady upright on Sunday. Muhammad Wilkerson is questionable, and the Jets have just seven sacks on the season -- the second-lowest total in the NFL. At the same time, the Bucs entered Week 5 with just one sack, and they ended up sacking Brady three times.
Now that Brady's shown he bleeds, it's time for the Patriots to limit the damage he takes.
(A potential milestone awaits Brady, by the way. With a win, he'll set the all-time record for regular-season wins by a starting quarterback.)
Road Defense
The Patriots still rank dead last by a large margin in terms of yards allowed per game at 447.2. (The 31st-ranked team, Indianapolis, allows 397.4.) They also are tied for 30th in the NFL in points allowed per game at 28.4. Defensively, it's been abysmal for New England.
But on the road? It's been ... well, it's still been bad. But it's been better.
In their two games on the road, they've allowed an average of 419 yards and just 17 points per game.
Now, a lot of that could be coincidental and circumstantial. But when you consider that the players have said that their biggest blunders this year have come because of miscommunication, it is possible that they benefit a bit from the silence that often accompanies a home team operating its offense -- as opposed to the roar that fills the crowd when the defense is working at home.
Offensively, the Jets are no powerhouse. They rank 26th in yards gained and 23rd in scoring. They've turned the ball over eight times. They might be without Bilal Powell this week.
We've said it numerous times this season, but the Patriots' defense is in position to have a solid defensive performance. They did it last week against Tampa for the first time. And it's a unit that could really use a second consecutive strong showing.
Heavy On The Ground
Might we finally see a game where the Patriots' offense shows some balance? If it were to happen, you'd figure it would be this week.
While Mike Gillislee (33rd in yards per attempt), Rex Burkhead (just five carries on the year as he's dealt with a rib injury), Dion Lewis (19 carries) and James White (20 carries) have not been the impact players they've wanted to be, they just might be on Sunday.
The Jets enter the game allowing 4.6 yards per carry (eighth-worst in the NFL) and 143 rushing yards per game (third-worst).
New York's opponents have averaged 31.2 rushing attempts per game. The Patriots have run just 25.6 times per game. The scales might finally tip that way this weekend.
Discipline
The Patriots looked uncharacteristically careless in their last game, and as a result, they found themselves having to defend a potential game-winning drive in the final seconds of the fourth quarter. It was a game they should have won handily but instead had to scrap and claw till the very end.
That's not how a Bill Belichick team typically functions.
Yet against Tampa Bay, the Patriots were flagged 12 times for 108 yards, a number of which came on some utterly careless mistakes. It was a repeat of their performance the previous week against the Panthers, when they were flagged seven times for 55 yards. The Panthers were penalized just once that day and ended up beating the Patriots in Foxboro.
And if the Patriots end up committing some of the same careless mistakes this week, they're absolutely going to find themselves having to fight tooth-and-nail against a Jets team they should beat. Whether it's jumping offside on a punt play, committing an illegal hands to the face penalty on a third-and-20 or a pair of roughing the passer penalties to give the opponent a free chance to score before halftime, it all needs to stop if the Patriots are to actually win another game with comfort.
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.