What To Watch For When Patriots Visit 49ers
By Matthew Geagan, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- This one's a layup, right? An easy chip shot, a gimme.
The Patriots are 13-point favorites heading into this weekend's matchup with the 1-8 San Francisco 49ers out West. The Niners are that bad. Really, really bad.
But we also thought that about the Philadelphia Eagles last season, when the Patriots welcomed to Gillette looking to bounce back from a tough loss. New England jumped out to a 14-0 lead against Philly, but then the Pats and Bill Belichick outsmarted themselves en route to an embarrassing (and season-changing) 35-28 loss.
Now, the Patriots head to San Fran looking to bounce back from a tough loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Belichick once again looks to get his team back on track against a team led by his buddy and MyFace friend Chip Kelly, and he even alluded to last season's upset loss to the Eagles earlier this week, making sure his team will not take San Fran lightly come Sunday afternoon.
No matter how bad the New England defense has struggled as of late, a repeat of last season shouldn't happen on Sunday. The 49ers have lost eight straight. Their defense is allowing 429.7 yards per game, ranking 30th in the NFL. They give up 31.4 points per game, the most in the league. They stink out loud, and the Patriots should roll. They should return home 8-2, even without the services of tight end Rob Gronkowski this weekend.
But as we learned last season, you just don't know until those final seconds tick off the game clock. Until that happens, here's what we'll be watching for when the Pats take on the 49ers:
Tom Brady Heads Home
Tom Brady has done a lot over his 17-year NFL career, but he's never played in San Francisco. The San Mateo native grew up a huge 49ers fan and was in attendance for "The Catch," when a 4 year old Brady let the waterworks flow when Dwight Clark hauled in a pass from Joe Montana to give the Niners a dramatic 28-27 win over the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC Championship game in 1982.
Brady had everything ready to go for the Patriots' visit to San Fran back in 2008, but we all know what happened in Week 1 of that season. Now, he's very much looking forward to what could be his final chance to play in his hometown.
"I had everything arranged and set up before the season for my family and friends, and then I got hurt. So it is [shocking], it is. It will be a lot of fun. I've got a lot of people coming to the game and it will just be a great environment," Brady told reporters on a conference call earlier this week, adding he requested more tickets than he ever has. "I may never get the opportunity again, so it's nice to have all the support, and I've had a lot from the Bay Area over the years. My high school, my elementary school, and I still have so many friends from growing up and coaches, my family, my aunts and uncles, cousins. It will just be a lot of fun to be out there."
So expect Brady to be quite emotional come Sunday, even more than he usually is. He'll be looking to put on a show for all his family and friends who are getting to see him in-person for the first -- and potentially only -- time.
What's The Rush?
It may be Brady's grand return to the Bay Area, but get ready to see a lot of LeGarrette Blount on Sunday.
And that's not just because the Patriots should get up big and try to kill the clock with their hulking running back. The Niners, to put it bluntly, are not very good at stopping the run. San Francisco is allowing 180.4 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per attempt, which, you may have guessed, are both dead last among NFL defenses.
The Niners defense was getting torched on the ground until holding the Arizona Cardinals to just 80 rush yards last week in a surprisingly close affair, allowing big rushing days against the Bills (313 yards), Buccaneers (249 yards) and Saints (249 yards) over the last month. Each of those three games included a lengthy TD run, with 44-yard scores by both Buffalo and Tampa Bay and a 75-yard scoring scamper by New Orleans' Mark Ingram.
Most of that has to do with San Francisco getting down big, but they're a team susceptible to giving up big days to opposing ground attacks. Brady will get to sling the ball around like he normally does, but this one may be dominated by Blount, James White and potentially even some Dion Lewis if he's active.
Big Day For Bennett?
With Rob Gronkowski out, it paves the way for another big game from Martellus Bennett, who has done it all for the Patriots this season. When he's not playing a key role in the blocking game, The Imagination Agency has hauled in 38 receptions for 504 yards and four touchdowns. He was the team's leading receiver in last week's loss to Seattle with seven receptions for 102 yards.
Bennett hasn't found the end zone since his hat trick against the Cleveland Browns in Week 5, but that could change this weekend with his rise to the No. 1 spot on the tight end depth chart. And if he isn't making a difference in the passing game, expect him to deliver some devastating blocks to free up the New England running backs.
Beware Of Kaepernick
The Patriots defense -- once thought to be among the better units in the league, but now the cause of everything bad in New England. If they keep playing the way they have, it's only a matter of time until an angry mob shows up at Gillette demanding Belichick to somehow find a way to erase his trades of Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins.
The Patriots D has taken their lumps over the last week, and rightfully so after allowing 420 yards and 31 points to the Seahawks. This week should be a nice soft landing, a bounce-back kind of game. But they will have to be ready for just about anything from Kelly's offense and quarterback Colin Kaepernick.
The Niners have a solid rush attack, ranking seventh in the NFL with 119.6 rushing yards per game, but they've fallen on hard times as of late. Carlos Hyde returned last week from a shoulder injury and managed just 14 yards on 13 carries against the Cardinals. Nearly half of San Fran's rushing yards have come from their quarterbacks this season (between Kaepernick and Blane Gabbert), which isn't a very good thing for a team that wants to set the tone on the ground.
But it could pose problems against the Patriots, who haven't had the best success against mobile, dual-threat quarterbacks this season. In their Week 4 matchup against the Bills, the Pats were terrified by Tyrod Taylor's running abilities and let him pick apart a cookie-cutter zone defense (granted, much of New England's overall gameplan that afternoon was cookie-cutter with Jacoby Brissett under center).
While they bounced back to contain Taylor in a Week 8 win in Buffalo, those struggles resurfaced last weekend as they went mostly zone against Russell Wilson in hopes he wouldn't beat them with his legs. He didn't, rushing for just six yards on three carries, but Wilson torched them with his arm to the tune of 348 yards and three touchdowns.
Now they have to gameplan for the enigmatic Kaepernick, who hasn't won in four starts since taking over for Gabbert in Week 6 (karma for his National Anthem protests, maybe?). He's thrown five touchdowns and a pair of picks, but he's done damage on the ground, averaging 7.1 yards per carry with a touchdown and 228 yards on 32 attempts. He'll have Chip Kelly calling a fast-paced offense on the sideline, trying to keep the Patriots on their heels guessing pass or run.
The dancing by quarterbacks against the Patriots has bought their receivers extra time down the field, and as we saw with Doug Baldwin last week (three times), they've usually been able to find a vacant part of the field. Kaepernick's legs will make things difficult for the defense trying to figure out when they want to bring pressure and when they want to let him try to beat them downfield.
This should be a week that the Patriots defense can figure things out, or at least start to. It should be a week where they can maybe force a turnover or two (they're on pace for just 16 this season) and maybe get to the quarterback (their 16 sacks are the fourth-fewest in the NFL). Maybe they can even get a stop or two on a key third down.
But keeping Kaepernick guessing, and not the other way around, is the key. There are a lot of questions surrounding the Patriots defense after 10 weeks, and Sunday should offer them an opportunity to keep the pitchforks and torches at bay.