What To Watch For When Falcons Visit Patriots On Sunday Night
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- When the Patriots and Falcons met eight months ago in Super Bowl LI, they were both on top of their respective conferences. The Falcons rolled to that Super Bowl by outscoring the Packers and Seahawks by 39 points in two playoff victories, while the Patriots disposed of the Texans and Steelers with a plus-37 point differential.
There was no debate about which two terms deserved to play in that game, and fittingly, 60 minutes was not enough to determine a winner.
Fast-forward to the current day, and you don't see a juggernaut in either team.
The 3-2 Falcons enter Sunday night coming off their second straight embarrassing home loss to an AFC East opponent. They're also mostly lucky to not be 1-4, considering their wins over the Bears and Lions were by the narrowest of margins. The 4-2 Patriots are in slightly better shape, but after squeaking by the Bucs and Jets, they appear to be much closer to the middle of the pack than they do a Super Bowl favorite.
Given their overall mediocrity so far this season, this Super Bowl rematch is not the clash of titans that many people expected when the schedule was released.
Nevertheless, the game remains critically important for both teams. The Patriots are looking to avoid dropping to an unimaginable 1-3 on their home turf and hang on to first place in the division. The Falcons are looking to avoid a third straight loss that would really send their season into a bit of a chaotic state.
It may not be the Super Bowl, but it's an important game for both participants. Here's What To Watch For.
Backfield, Both Ways
It will be dubbed as Tom Brady vs. Matt Ryan, and by all means, the quarterbacks will figure prominently into the outcome. But the running backs on both teams might be most important.
We saw in Super Bowl LI that the Falcons really had no way of containing James White as a receiver out of the backfield, as evidenced by his 14 receptions for 110 yards. He also contributed on the ground, with two touchdowns and 29 yards on six carries, as well as a successful two-point conversion run. And considering Jay Ajayi just gashed the Falcons to the tune of 130 yards on 26 carries, the opportunity should be there for the Patriots to actually prevent Brady from having to throw 40-plus times.
With White, Mike Gillislee, Dion Lewis and perhaps Rex Burkhead all poised to contribute, expect a heavy dose of Patriots running backs in this one. That's especially the case considering Julian Edelman -- who was targeted 13 times in Super Bowl LI -- is obviously not playing in the rematch.
At the same time, the Patriots' defense will face a stiff challenge in trying to limit Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. The duo was overall held in check last week vs. Miami, but Freeman still broke off a 44-yard run and Coleman had a 20-yard run of his own. We saw in Week 1 with Kareem Hunt that the Patriots can be beaten on the ground by the right back, so trying to keep those two from controlling the game will be of critical importance.
The 300 Club
There shouldn't be a question of whether or not Matt Ryan will throw for over 300 yards, as every opposing quarterback has reached that mark this year against the Patriots. Yes, even Josh McCown and Alex Smith.
So while Ryan isn't quite having himself another MVP-caliber season (his passer rating is at 87.3, down from 117.1 last year), he should still be able to pick apart a Patriots secondary that has been horrific at home and will be without Stephon Gilmore.
Now, you could rightfully point out that Gilmore has been among the biggest problems in that secondary, particularly in home losses to Kansas City and Carolina. But any time you're forced to roll with Johnson Bademosi and Jonathan Jones getting significant reps in your secondary against the reigning MVP of the league, you may be inviting trouble.
For whatever reason (crowd noise limiting communication, perhaps), the Patriots' pass defense has been astoundingly bad at home. The trio of Smith, Deshaun Watson and Cam Newton completed 74.2 percent of their passes for nine touchdowns, three interceptions, and an average of 328 yards per game. It comes out to a passer rating of 124.3. They've given up more yards on the road but have held Drew Brees, Jameis Winston and McCown to a 61.3 completion rate and a 91.0 passer rating.
Ryan's yet to have a truly great game so far in 2017; he's thrown more than one interception just once in five starts and he's already thrown six interceptions after throwing seven all of last year. There's a chance he falls flat on his face in Foxboro ... but the safe bet is on Ryan looking much more like his 2016 self come Sunday night.
Discipline
The Falcons are coming a loss for which they really only have themselves to blame. Against the Dolphins, they were penalized 73 yards on six penalties, and each one really was damaging.
What stood out was how badly the Falcons adapted to situations where they needed more than 10 yards to gain a first down.
After an Andy Levitre false start set up a first-and-15, they ended up punting on fourth-and-11. When Jake Matthews held on a first-and-10, Atlanta ended up punting on fourth-and-19.
Defensively, the Falcons showed terrible discipline in that loss, too. Takkarist McKinley took an unncessary roughness penalty for a late post-whistle shove, Adrian Clayborn turned a Miami third-and-12 into a third-and-7 with a neutral zone infraction (Miami scored on the play), Robert Alford gave Miami 26 yards and a free first down on a third-down incompletion with a needless PI penalty, and Grady Jarrett negated an Atlanta interception when he foolishly took two steps and planted Jay Cutler to the ground to draw a roughing the passer penalty.
The Patriots have had their issues with flags, too, notably with 12 for 108 yards in Tampa, nine for 66 yards at New Orleans, and seven for 55 yards against Carolina.
Whichever team ends up losing may be looking at a momentary lapse in judgment as a reason for the L. There will be many eyes on Gene Steratore and his crew for this one.
The Gronk Factor
We take it for granted sometimes, considering how commonplace he makes his dominance look. But there really is no offensive force in the NFL like Rob Gronkowski.
And though it's been moderately quiet, Gronkowski is having himself a season. With 26 catches for 401 yards and four touchdowns, he's on pace for a 69-1069-11 season. And if he can stay healthy, he'll likely outperform all those numbers.
So, considering big No. 87 wasn't healthy enough to take the field against the Falcons in February, it'll be interesting to see how big of a wrinkle he can cause in Atlanta's game plan.
While Gronkowski is unlikely to see an Edelman level of targets, he'll likely be able to make his impact felt with a handful of catches for big yardage -- something he's been displaying since Week 2. After a quiet season debut, he's averaged six catches for 92 yards in the other four games in which he's played, scoring all four of his touchdowns in those games too.
Tight ends have had varied results against Atlanta's D this year, with Charles Clay's five-catch, 112-yard performance the best of the lot. The Falcons have yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end this season. But they've also yet to face the challenge of Rob Gronkowski.
Two more things: Special teams execution will be huge,
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.