Wet Nor'Easter On The Way
BOSTON (CBS) -- Our atmosphere is about to undergo a major change. Over the next 48 hours a large storm system will develop at upper levels of the atmosphere and engulf the entire northeastern United States from Maine to the Carolinas. Once it forms it will literally create a traffic jam in the atmosphere, stalling out the weather over the rest of the county as it wobbles and spins all week long over and around New England.
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I know what you are thinking...week long storm, December, temperatures forecast to barely crack freezing on Monday... sounds like a recipe for an historic snowstorm! It *could* have been a winter whoppin' had everything lined up just a bit differently, but this time it looks like a windswept rainstorm for Southern New England.
The main reason for rain instead of snow -- the track of the storm at the surface... this one will be what we call "an inside runner." The center of the storm will ride right up the East Coast from the North Carolina coastline to Long Island, New York. This will allow for mild ocean air to flood in from the south and southeast, leading to rain for all locations other than the higher elevations in New England.
Overnight Monday Into Tuesday
Mainly light precipitation but with temperatures well below freezing just west of the Coastline (inland from Interstate 95). This will likely cause many slippery spots. There will be scattered coatings of snow and spots of black ice where light rain or drizzle hits the cold surface and freezes on contact.
Tuesday Morning Commute 5-9 a.m.
Temperatures struggle to reach 32 degrees west of I-95. There will likely be several spin-outs in the Route 128 and Interstate 495 belts, especially for early commuters (before 8 a.m.). Farther northwest in parts of Western Middlesex County, Northern Worcester County and Southern New Hampshire there will be a bit more snow. One to three inches will coat the ground in these areas by mid morning. By the tail end of the commute (About 9 a.m.) temperatures should be at or slightly above 32 degrees for most of Eastern Massachusetts and the precipitation will gradually change to all rain.
Midday Tuesday
Temperatures continue to warm, rain becomes steady and heavy. Snow is all done for Massachusetts except in the highest elevations (Such as the Berkshires). High tide will be just after noon, which will result in some minor splash-over and erosion at east facing beaches. Winds will steadily increase out of the east-northeast, about 20-40 MPH at the Coast at this hour.
Afternoon and Early Evening Tuesday
The storm will peak from about 1-7 p.m. with periods of very heavy rainfall. This is when 1-3" of rain are expected for most of Eastern and Central Massachusetts. Winds will also peak during this timeframe, gusting to 50 or even 60 MPH at the immediate coastline, likely causing come tree damage. Inland, winds will not be as strong, likely closer to 20-40 MPH gusts. Expect poor drainage flooding and lots of giant street puddles by the evening commute, expect a slow ride home.
After 7 p.m. Tuesday
The rain shuts down, just a few showers remain, winds also slacken off at the Coast, but likely remain a bit gusty well inland as they shift to the north-northwest. There will NOT be any sort of flash freeze as temperatures will remain above freezing all night long for most of our area.
Flooding:
As stated above 1-3" of rainfall are expected in a relatively short period of time on Tuesday afternoon. This should lead to some poor drainage (street and urban) flooding. Likely a very wet, slow, evening commute Tuesday.
Where will it snow?
In the mountains...a heavy, wet snow is likely in the Berkshires of Massachusetts, Green Mountains of Vermont and White Mountains of New Hampshire. Several inches on Tuesday, but with the additional snow showers on Wednesday and Thursday, some of the higher-elevation ski areas will see 1-2 feet of snow this week!
Winds:
Easterly winds 25-50mph with a few gusts to 60mph are likely on the immediate Coastline during Tuesday afternoon and early evening. This would include Cape Ann Cape Cod and the Islands.
Coastal Flooding:
The strong easterly winds along with 15-20 foot waves just offshore will likely cause some minor coastal flooding on east facing beaches during the midday high tide on Tuesday. There is a lesser concern for the following high tide just after midnight.
So, clearly a very stormy Tuesday and an unsettled week in general, however it appears as though we will miss what could have been a significant winter event in Southern New England. As always, I would suggest staying tuned to updates during the day Monday.
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