Hurley's Picks: What if Patriots had just committed to Tom Brady?

BOSTON -- There once was a time when a game featuring the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots would be a marquee event, arguably the largest attraction in the entire NFL schedule.

Now? Now a Chiefs-Pats game gets flexed out of Monday Night Football ... and that's not because the Chiefs aren't compelling. Even with the prospect of possibly being able to show gratuitous shots of Taylor Swift celebrating and reacting all night, ESPN opted to flex this game out of prime time in favor of Eagles-Seahawks.

Yes, the Patriots may have pieced together a win last week on a Thursday night in Pittsburgh, but they're still 3-10, they still lack name recognition on a national level, and they're still without a playoff victory since February of 2019. Speculation about the end of Bill Belichick's reign in Fobxoro has lingered for most of the season, and that's seen an uptick this week.

It's not the best. And while I understand some people get upset when you go through a thought experiment, I'm nevertheless going to proceed with this one: What if the Patriots had simply stuck with Tom Brady?

I know, I know, I know. Ancient history. Brady left a long time ago. He's retired. Move on, you loser.

First of all, harsh. Second of all, Brady just retired. He played last year. The Patriots have been mired in mediocrity for years before this season's precipitous drop to the dungeon of the NFL. Ergo, having Brady from 2020-22 could have -- and almost certainly would have -- changed things for the present quite a bit. So let's do it.

Not to rehash every detail, but dating back to his early 30s, Tom Brady expressed a desire to play into his mid-40s. As his TB12 venture ramped up, achieving that goal became a lot more realistic, and he continued to list the age of 45 as a comfortable target. Along the way, Brady really wanted a contract with the Patriots that would have kept him in New England through his early 40s, but the Patriots (read: Belichick) were not eager to make that commitment.

Think back to 2018. Brady was coming off an MVP season, one that he ended by setting a Super Bowl record for passing yards, two weeks after leading a stirring comeback against the NFL's best defense while playing with a disgustingly gashed hand. All of that came on the heels of the 28-3 comeback over the Falcons, which came after Brady had spent multiple years proving anyone who used DeflateGate to doubt or question his greatness to be an absolute moron. Clearly, Brady could still play, and clearly, Brady was due to earn more than the $15 million left on his deal for 2018.

And what did the Patriots do? They added five incentives worth $1 million each to Brady's contract. As one tall, brave writer once phrased it: "Coming off an MVP season, the Patriots told Brady that he'd have to dance for his dinner."

Brady didn't hit those incentives ... but he did win another Super Bowl, and he wanted another contract. Instead, he got lowballed (again), eventually leading to his departure after the 2019 season.

Now, this won't necessarily work from the perspective of total logic, but let's just compare Brady's Tampa Bay stats to the Patriots' quarterback stats each year that he was gone.

Tom Brady, 2020
401-for-610 (65.7%), 4,633 yards
40 TDs, 12 INTs (plus 3 rushing touchdowns)
3 fourth-quarter comebacks, 3 game-winning drives
102.2 rating, 11-5 record

Cam Newton, 2020
242-for-368 (65.8%), 2,657 yards
8 TDs, 10 INTs (plus 12 rushing touchdowns)
1 fourth-quarter comeback, 3 game-winning drives
82.9 rating, 7-8 record

Tom Brady, 2021
285-for-719 (67.5%), 5,316 yards
43 TDs, 12 INTs (plus 2 rushing touchdowns)
3 fourth-quarter comebacks, 5 game-winning drives
102.1 rating, 13-4 record

Mac Jones, 2021
352-for-521 (67.6%), 3,801 yards
22 TDs, 13 INTs
1 fourth-quarter comeback, 1 game-winning drive
92.5 rating, 10-7 record

Tom Brady, 2022
490-for-733 (66.8%), 4,694 yards
25 TDs, 9 INTs (plus 1 rushing touchdown)
4 fourth-quarter comebacks, 5 game-winning drives
90.7 rating, 8-9 record

Mac Jones/Bailey Zappe, 2022
353-for-534 (66.1%), 3,778 yards
19 TDs, 14 INTs (plus 1 rushing touchdown)
0 fourth-quarter comebacks, 0 game-winning drives
87.6 rating, 8-8 record 

The 2020 Patriots went 7-9 despite some poor quarterback play. Had they gotten Brady's 43 touchdowns instead of Cam Newton's 20 total touchdowns? Some -- if not all -- of their four one-possession losses could have flipped the other way, giving the Patriots 10 or 11 wins.

The 2021 Patriots, as you'll recall, did go 10-7, and Mac Jones was pretty good for a rookie. Tom Brady was still much, much better, putting forth an MVP-caliber season at age 44. (That's still ridiculous to say and/or think about.) With 1,500 more passing yards and 23 more touchdowns, Brady probably could have gotten the Patriots more than those 10 wins. Three of the Patriots' losses that year were by six or fewer points, too. (One of those, though, was a loss to Brady and the Bucs, so if we try to flip that one around and envision Brady on the Patriots, we enter a realm of the matrix that we aren't supposed to explore. So let's move on before we fall too far into the multiverse.)

And even though the 45-year-old Brady fell back to earth in 2022, he was still a lot better than the Patriots' quarterbacking duo of Jones and Bailey Zappe. And he was clutch, coming up with five game-winning drives for a team with some questionable coaching. The Patriots, meanwhile, went 8-9 and lost four games by seven or fewer points. It would have only taken one more win to have made the playoffs.

This is to say: All of ... this could have been avoided. Imagine if Bill Belichick, Robert Kraft and the rest of the Patriots had taken a moment in the summer of 2018 to say, "Wait a second, Tom Brady is Tom Brady. Maybe he will break down eventually, but let's ride this pillar of our franchise as long as we can. He is the greatest to ever do it and he is, most certainly, worth a shot. Brady at 43 years old represents a better option than Jarrett Stidham plus whatever free agent is available in late June." Almost certainly, the Patriots would have kept making the playoffs every year. Almost certainly, the Patriots would have kept winning in the playoffs every year.

And even if those seasons weren't resulting in Super Bowls (and they likely wouldn't have, owing in large part to the philosophical de-emphasis on offensive skill positions), they'd likely be good enough to the point where we're not sitting around in December of 2023 wondering if this is the end for Bill Belichick.

No, none of that is scientific. But it's honestly and genuinely difficult to believe that the decision to push Brady away was one from which the Patriots -- and Belichick -- never fully recovered.

(Home team in CAPS; Wednesday lines)

LAS VEGAS (-3) over Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers were kind of a tough watch even when they had their young, promising quarterback. Now they get Easton Stick on a short week. Seems rough.

CINCINNATI (-3.5) over Minnesota
INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) over Pittsburgh
Denver (+4) over DETROIT
Some people believe the first two days of March Madness are the finest days of the sporting calendar. For my money, this Saturday football extravaganza is a true delight. You get to watch three games sequentially on a Saturday, leading your loved ones to look at you and wonder what the heck is going on. You get to jump from errand to errand, maybe mix in a holiday party or festive activity, all with the backdrop of NFL football entertaining you. What a treat.

I don't really get why the Bengals are only 3.5-point favorites, which gives me some pause. But not enough to believe in Mullens Mania. The Colts are the easiest pick of the week, because Mitch Trubisky is probably the worst quarterback in the NFL. And while I don't love Denver, I think I have to move off the Lions officially. They're just moving in the wrong direction.

Atlanta (-3) over CAROLINA
I do (kind of) think the Panthers are going to win another game before the season ends. I just need to stop trying to get cute by predicting it. Do you know how hard it is to watch the Carolina Panthers play football while hoping they win the football game? It's excruciating. And embarrassing. 

Chicago (+3.5) over CLEVELAND
The Bears have been playing decent football for over a month. The Browns are hanging on by a thread.

GREEN BAY (-3.5) over Tampa Bay
TENNESSEE (-2.5) over Houston
Do you give the Titans credit for that incredible comeback, or do you harbor some serious concerns after they created almost all of that trouble on their own? I lean toward the latter, but with Tank Dell and Nico Collins hurt, and with C.J. Stroud in concussion protocol, I'm not sure there are enough pick-sixes or muffed punts in the world to keep the Titans from winning this one.

New York Giants (+6) over NEW ORLEANS
Why is everybody so shocked to see an Italian person? Why has it become a novelty that Tommy DeVito is Italian? There are many people of Italian descent in your general vicinity right now. Are you walking up to them doing the parmesan hands thing? No, reader, you're not. So I need everybody to grow up for a minute here and stop making it into some joke that somebody is Italian. Lots of people are Italian. Everybody eats Italian food. SHUT UP ALREADY WITH THE HAND THING.

Thank you.

New York Jets (+8.5) over MIAMI
I finally got one right while picking against the Dolphins to cover a big spread. And they lost outright to boot. I'm really pushing my luck to do it again here ... but I don't really hate the Jets here. In fact, I kind of like them.

People forget that before Tim Boyle (not an NFL quarterback by any stretch of the imagination) threw a Hail Mary pick-six before halftime, the Jets and Dolphins were locked in a 10-6 game. The wheels fell off after that shocking play (how could they not?), but the Jets' defense showed it could hang with Miami for a long stretch there. Now if Tyreek Hill is limited with that ankle? Game on!

(Cue Zach Wilson throwing multiple Hail Mary pick-sixes somehow.)

Kansas City (-9.5) over NEW ENGLAND
The Chiefs have never lost three in a row during the Patrick Mahomes era. They've also won by an average of 1,000 points when they're coming off a game where Mahomes lost his mind in a fit of rage at officials for properly throwing a flag when a man was lined up offside. (That's an estimated average, based on the forthcoming results in Foxboro.)

ARIZONA (+13.5) over San Francisco
Are the Niners built to win big every week the rest of the way? I don't know. I do know their matchup with Baltimore next week on a Monday night is a fun one. This one? This one, not so much. Not at all.

For the Cardinals, though, it represents one of those weeks where everyone has a chance to feel good about themselves if they can at least play hard and keep it close against the best team in the conference. They're coming off a bye, too, so Jonathan Gannon should --key word: should -- have a game plan that could make that happen.

He did a marvelous job last year in the NFC title game, when the 49ers literally did not have a quarterback. The degree of difficulty has been ramped up this week, but let's see what he's got.

LOS ANGELES RAMS (-6.5) over Washington
The Mandies are such a problem right now. Just a non-competitive bunch. They've lost four straight and six of seven ... nine of 11. Their lone win over the past seven weeks came because JuJu Smith-Schuster dropped a pass that gifted them a game-winning interception. They have lost their last two games by a combined score of 90-25. A real problem, the Mandies are.

BUFFALO (-1.5) over Dallas
I believe in Buffalo.

Baltimore (-3) over JACKSONVILLE
I do not believe in Jacksonville.

Philadelphia (-4) over SEATTLE
Ditto for Seattle.

Last week: 8-6-1
Season: 94-104-8