Tom Brady's Greatest Feat? Avoiding 'The Cliff' To The Bitter End
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- It was a piece of punditry that turned into a punchline. Tom Brady. The Cliff. It was stated in earnest by Max Kellerman in July of 2016, with the ESPN talking head adding the flair of saying that Brady would be "a bum" very soon.
It was ridiculous, yes, and even Kellerman came to make fun of himself for having been so wrong. But here's the thing: It wasn't an outlandish thought. Not at all.
If anything, Kellerman was playing into the overwhelming odds that indeed, Father Time would come for Brady, just as he had come for everyone else.
That Kellerman was proven to have been absolutely, unequivocally, and comically wrong is more a testament to the unbelievable stretch of football put forth by Tom Brady than it is an indictment of the ESPN pundit.
Digging into the numbers and the history of the position really drives that reality home.
Brady was approaching his 39th birthday when the infamous "cliff" story line entered our consciousness. He had just led the league with 36 touchdown passes, finishing tied for second in MVP voting behind Cam Newton. (Newton almost unanimously won the thing, but tied for second is tied for second.) That was, obviously, a year after Brady put forth a spectacular fourth quarter against an all-time Seattle defense in Super Bowl XLIX. People were high on Brady, but Kellerman said it would end soon, based on how things ended for so many athletes at that age.
But here's what Brady did in 2016: 12 starts, 11-1 record, 67.4% completion rate, 28 touchdowns, 2 INTs. That's 28 touchdowns and two interceptions. He finished second in the MVP voting again, then he threw for 384 yards with two touchdowns and no picks in the conference championship ... before bringing the Patriots back from a 28-3 deficit in the Super Bowl.
At 39, the cliff wasn't there.
At 40, Brady was the MVP of the league and then set a Super Bowl record with 505 passing yards. No cliff in sight.
The numbers stayed remarkably consistent for him at age 41, when he won his sixth Super Bowl, but then finally in 2019, the stats took a dip.
Now, those with discerning eyes and common sense could see that the offense was simply lacking capable receiving options. But the results were the results. Brady's completion percentage dropped by five points, his touchdowns dropped from 29 to 24, and his passer rating went from 97.7 in 2018 to 88.0 in 2019. At long last, the end was approaching, some surely believed.
That's why it can't be overstated how unbelievable Brady's performances at age 43 and 44 were. In 33 regular-season games, he completed 66.7 percent of his ridiculous 1,329 passes, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt with 83 touchdowns and 24 interceptions for a 102.1 rating. He led the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns and will almost certainly finish in the top two of MVP voting again -- at the age of 44. His arm strength, pocket mobility and precision remained as sharp as ever.
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— Michael Hurley (@michaelFhurley) October 26, 2020
He also, you know, won a Super Bowl between those seasons, throwing 13 touchdowns and four interceptions in the Bucs' six playoff games over the past two years.
That much, you surely knew. But let's compare it all to the late-career performances of the Hall of Fame quarterbacks who played against Brady and came before him.
You can start with Peyton Manning. At 37, he set an NFL record with 55 touchdown passes. He threw more passes than anyone, completed more passes than anyone, and amassed more passing yards than anyone. He brought the Broncos to the Super Bowl, where they got blown out by the Seahawks, and the drop-off after that season was precipitous.
His touchdown-to-interception ratio went from 55-10 in 2013, to 39-15 in 2014, to a grisly 9-17 in 2015, when he was benched for half the season. His passer rating went from 115.1 at the age of 37, to 101.5 at 38, to 67.9 at age 39.
He was on the team that won the Super Bowl that year, throwing two total touchdowns and a pick over three playoff games, but he had to retire after that, before his 40th birthday. Physically, he was done.
The end of Brett Favre's career was an interesting one, as he came out of nowhere to be downright excellent at age 40 for the Vikings. That year, he threw 33 touchdowns and just seven interceptions, finishing fourth in MVP voting and making the Pro Bowl. He started his postseason with a four-touchdown performance to beat the Cowboys, though the run did end with a back-breaking interception against New Orleans a week later. Still, Favre's age 40 season was excellent.
His age 41 season was not. Favre threw 11 touchdowns and 19 interceptions before his career was unceremoniously ended with a concussive hit on a frigid night at TCF Bank Stadium. His passer rating went from 107.2 at age 40 to 69.9 at age 41. The cliff was real, and Favre retired.
Most Hall of Fame quarterbacks didn't dare tempting the cliff. Joe Montana, Kurt Warner and John Elway were all done at 38. Montana was tied for 12th in passing touchdowns and ranked 10th in passing yards in his final season. Steve Young played just three games as a 38-year-old before retiring. Jim Kelly's final season came at age 36, when he threw 14 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. Dan Marino's final season came at 38 years old, when he threw 12 touchdowns and 17 picks, his passer rating dropping from 80.0 in 1998 to 67.4 in 1999.
In terms of those who did try to give it a go after 40, Warren Moon was all over the place. He had a 68.7 rating as a 40-year-old, an 83.7 rating at 41, and a 76.6 rating at 42. He threw three passes at age 43 and 34 passes at age 44 before retiring.
Drew Brees posted solid numbers at age 40 and 41, throwing 51 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions over his final two seasons, while completing 72.4 percent of his passes. But arm strength clearly became an issue late in his career, and he retired after throwing three interceptions in the Saints' playoff loss ... to Brady's Bucs. Brees ranked 20th in passing yards and tied for 17th in passing TDs in his final season.
In that sense, Brady's retirement spares the world from seeing a drop-off that would be difficult to watch. Had it come at age 42, or 43, or 44, there would have been no shame. The human body does have its limits. But Brady spent the last several years defying those restrictions.
That's not a mark against any other Hall of Famers or media pundits who swore the end was coming. It's simply a testament to Brady doing what was previously thought to be impossible.
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.