Taking stock of Patriots' offense through three weeks
BOSTON -- With Josh McDaniels (and Ivan Fears, Mick Lombardi, Bo Hardegree, and Carmen Bricillo) leaving the Patriots' offensive coaching staff and only Matt Patricia and Joe Judge being added to that staff, the state of the Patriots' offense was undoubtedly the chief talking point surrounding the team throughout the spring and summer.
Now three weeks into the real season, what have we learned?
While Mac Jones may be missing some time, thus tabling the larger offensive discussion until further notice, we've still seen 180 minutes of football from the Patriots and have plenty to work with in terms of assessing the the offensive operation.
On an individual level, it's been a rough start for the second-year quarterback. Jones ranks 31st in passer rating, better than only Trey Lance and Justin Fields. He's tied for the league lead with five interceptions, along with Matthew Stafford and Jameis Winston. But Jones has just half as many touchdown passes as those two QBs, and Jones' two touchdown passes have him ranked tied for 27th in that category. On a more positive note, Jones ranks 11th in both passing yards and completion percentage.
The Patriots don't have any running backs in the top 20 of the NFL in rushing yards, and they don't have a receiver in the top 30 in receiving yards.
Across the board, the Patriots obviously don't have much in the way of individual standouts. But collectively ... the offense has functioned pretty well. At least in terms of moving the ball.
With an average of 364.7 yards per game, the Patriots rank 10th in the NFL in that category. They average just 11 fewer yards than sixth-ranked Jacksonville.
They're in the middle of the pack running the ball, 13th in yards per game (115.7) and 18th in yards per attempt (18th). Their passing offense is better, ranking 11th in yards per game (249.0) and fourth in yards per pass (7.7). Only Philadelphia (9.08), Miami (8.49) and Baltimore (8.35) rank higher in the latter category.
Unfortunately for New England, all of that moving the football hasn't led to points. The Patriots rank 25th in points scored, averaging just 16.7 points per game. That number is a bit jarring in New England. Putting aside the Cam Newton season in 2020, the Patriots haven't finished worse than eighth in the NFL in scoring since 2005. Their average rank in scoring offense from 2001-19 was fifth. Their worst ranking during that time was 12th, way back in 2003, their lone season outside of the top 10.
Last year, even with a rookie quarterback, the Patriots ranked sixth in points scored. Now, they're 25th.
That is, obviously, based off a small sample size. The Patriots averaged just 17.8 points per game through four weeks last year, before averaging 33.1 points per game over the eight weeks that followed. Ranking 25th at the end of September means very little in the big picture.
But the reason for the ranking isn't overly difficult to find.
For one, the Patriots rank second in the NFL in giveaways with eight. Jones has turned the football over six times (five picks, one strip sack), while Nelson Agholor has lost two fumbles. Only the Saints, with nine, have turned it over more this year.
In addition to the traditional turnovers, the Patriots have also turned it over on downs twice, with one failed fourth-down conversion apiece in each of their two losses. Their 2-for-9 conversion rate on third down against the Ravens certainly crushed their ability to put points on the scoreboard as well.
Compounding that issue is the Patriots' ineffectiveness in the red zone. The Patriots have cashed in on just 55.6 percent of their red zone trips, ranking 17th in the NFL in that category. They've been better when they've gotten closer to the goal line, as they've scored touchdowns on 83.3 percent of their goal-to-go situations.
Jones threw a red-zone interception on Sunday vs. Baltimore, taking points off the board for New England. And though it wasn't technically a red-zone pick, his end-zone interception in Miami from the 22-yard line (on a first down, no less) likewise prevented the Patriots from at least an easy three points, but possibly more.
The other issue -- which may not be as severe as the turnovers or red-zone inefficiency -- has been penalties. They've committed six holding penalties (one was declined), they've had three false starts and one illegal formation penalty. Those have hurt. Throw in an intentional grounding penalty, a delay of game, and the burning of six timeouts thus far to get play calls right, and offensive operation as a whole certainly hasn't been smooth.
Offensive play caller/offensive line coach Matt Patricia was asked Tuesday if there have been any commonalities in the Patriots' struggle to punch the ball into the end zone after getting inside the opponent's 20-yard line, and he pinpointed negative plays as the biggest issue.
"We know that that's gonna put us in a really bad situation to try to get points. And we've gotta eliminate those situations. I think, not exactly sure of the stats, but it's roughly around a 50 percent chance decreasing your opportunities to score when you have a negative play. So that's really important for us."
In Sunday's loss to Baltimore, Isaiah Wynn committed a holding penalty (on a 2-yard loss by Stevenson) in the red zone, sending the Patriots back to the Baltimore 26-yard line. They eventually had to settle for a field goal. A week prior in Pittsburgh, a delay of game on a third-and-8 at the Steelers' 15-yard line contributed to another field goal try for New England.
Outside of that, it may not be as bad as the stats from the small sample size might show. One "unproductive" red zone drive in Pittsburgh came as a result of three kneeldowns to ice a victory. And the issue in Week 1 was more about getting in to the red zone than anything else. (They were 1-for-1 on their red zone trips that day in Miami.)
Nevertheless, if Mac Jones were fully healthy, the goal for the Patriots' offense would certainly be to have that scoring ranking climb closer toward the yardage ranking, instead of vice versa. Alas, with Jones likely out and Brian Hoyer likely in at quarterback, the evaluation process figures to veer down an alternate course for the immediate future.
So for now, after a spring and summer spent debating and dissecting the potential within the Patriots' offense, we're left with mostly a mixed bag of results.