Massachusetts nor'easter to bring heavy snow with blizzard-like conditions possible on Tuesday
A potential snow storm could bring plowable snow to Massachusetts on Tuesday. Here's the latest forecast for the Boston area from the WBZ NEXT Weather Team.
BOSTON - Odds are increasing that a highly impactful nor'easter will strike southern New England on Tuesday with possible blizzard-like conditions in spots.
Given that this storm is still several days away, nothing is set in stone just yet. However, confidence has grown that we will see some very real impacts here.
Tracking the snow storm
Looking at the different storm track scenarios, a far northern track, (closer to southern New England) seems the least likely right now ... say about 10%.
That would have meant a milder and wetter (rain in parts of the area) storm.
There is still a decent chance that the storm tracks a bit too far south to be a "bullseye" here. I'd say there is about a 30% chance that we get "fringed" or clipped by the northern edge of the storm. That would likely still bring some snow to our area, particularly south of Boston, but would spare us from the full impact.
Finally and unfortunately, the most likely scenario as of Friday appears to be a more classic New England storm track.
When will the snow storm start in Massachusetts?
Odds have increased that most of our area will see a plowable snowfall on Tuesday and a good lashing of wind and flooding at the coastline.
The timeline will likely need to be tweaked, but for now, plan on snow starting early Tuesday morning and continuing throughout most of the day. Tuesday may be one of those scenarios where schools have to make a 'game-time' decision when it comes to snow – there will only be light coatings by early Tuesday morning before the storm really ramps up.
The latest snowfall forecast has a widespread 6-12" for most of the interior, including Worcester and Middlesex County into the Merrimack Valley. Lesser amounts of snow are expected along the coast, where marginally warmer water will act to cut totals slightly, especially through the South Shore.
Boston has a current streak of 715 days since the last 4" or higher snowfall, the longest such streak on record. It's very possible that we break that streak come Tuesday evening.
Winter Storm Watch issued
A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for most of the region late Monday night through Tuesday for the potential for heavy snow and difficult driving conditions. A Coastal Flood Watch has also been issued for Tuesday afternoon.
The storm coinciding with some of the highest tides of the month and storm surge could lead to coastal flooding and beach erosion especially Tuesday afternoon.
Coastal flooding concerns with the storm
Perhaps just as concerning is that the storm is potentially striking during one of the highest tide cycles of the year. The absolute highest astronomical tides occur Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, they are coming off their peak but still remain quite high. So, a nor'easter-type storm would NOT be good news for folks living along the east-facing coastline.
There were some spots that saw some minor coastal splash over this morning during high tide. Forecast high tides are at-or-above flood stage over the next few days.
The greatest concern lies with the early Tuesday afternoon high tide.
Should this coincide with the peak of the storm, there could be moderate to major coastal flooding in some areas.
Regardless of whether Tuesday's storm is a hit or miss, we are about to enter a much colder and potentially snowier period.
The next few weeks (at least) are likely to be cold and stormy at times, sorry Phil but your forecast of an early spring is not looking good at the moment!
We urge that you stay tuned to updated forecasts throughout the weekend. We will continue to keep you updated on the potential nor'easter on WBZ-TV, WBZ.com and CBS News Boston!