Red Sox enter final week of regular season with less than 1 percent chance at making playoffs
BOSTON -- The Red Sox won both games of a double header against the Minnesota Twins on Sunday, so they are technically still alive in the AL Wild Card race. Realistically though, plan to have some free nights come October.
The Red Sox climbed back to .500 and are 78-78 after sweeping their double-dip with the Twins on Sunday. They ended up taking two of three in the must-sweep series, but losing Friday's series opener against Minnesota essentially sank Boston's playoff chances.
Entering the final week of the regular season, the Red Sox sit four games back for the final American League Wild Card spot with six games remaining. It's really only a matter of time before Boston is officially eliminated from playoff contention.
"We're gonna keep playing," Boston manager Alex Cora said Sunday night. "We're gonna keep playing all the way to the end."
The odds of the Red Sox making the playoffs are less than one percent
The odds are slim. Not yet none, but very slim, as the Red Sox have a 0.3 percent chance of making the postseason. Those odds have dropped by 25 percent over the last 30 days.
To have any chance at making the playoffs, the Red Sox must win all six of their remaining games. That quest starts Monday night when they play the first of three against the Blue Jays in Toronto, before closing out the season at Fenway Park with three against the Tampa Bay Rays.
The 2024 Red Sox have yet to break off a six-game win streak this season. They won five straight in April, June, and July, but never six straight. Their longest win streak after the All-Star break was a three-game win streak in early August.
The Blue Jays have already been eliminated from contention, but the Rays are in the same boat as the Red Sox at 78-78. The Rays just took two of three from the Red Sox in St. Pete last week, with the season series tied at 5-5. But the Rays may be out of the playoff picture before the final series of the season. But then again, so may the Red Sox.
Red Sox' "Tragic Number" sits at 3
Boston's elimination number -- or "tragic number" -- is currently three. So any mix of three Boston losses or Kansas City wins (potentially Minnesota wins) will end the season for the Red Sox.
Unfortunately for the Red Sox, there are four teams to surpass in order to play October baseball. A lot is going to have to break their way over the final week of the regular season for the Red Sox to have any chance at backing into the playoffs.
The Twins aren't even their target anymore, though Boston still has to pass Minnesota in the standings. The surging Detroit Tigers and the falling Kansas City Royals -- both 82-74 -- occupy the final two Wild Card slots, with the Tigers currently in the second Wild Card spot.
The Twins (81-75) sit a game back of that duo, with the Seattle Mariners (80-76) two games back. The Rays -- who own a better record against the AL East than Boston -- are also four games back but technically ahead of Boston in the standings.
So the Red Sox have to win, and then they need a lot of help from the Tigers, Mariners, Twins, and Royals. That's asking a lot and counting on a lot of things that are completely out of Boston's control, which is never a comfortable position to be in.
The Royals don't seem to want to make the playoffs though, losing seven straight and eight of their last 10. They finish the season with three games against the Nationals in Washington and three against the Braves in Atlanta.
The Tigers, who have won six of their last seven, can help the Sox if they keep winning. Detroit hosts the Rays for three games, and then get three gimmies against the lowly White Sox.
The Twins, who have dropped seven of their last 10, will close the season with three-game series in Miami and in Baltimore. The Mariners have stayed afloat with six wins over their last 10 games, and finish the season with three on the road against the Astros and three at home against the Athletics.
Boston essentially needs to win out and hope the Royals and Twins go 2-4, while the Mariners do no better than 3-3. The Twins and Royals have shown they're capable of having such bad records over a stretch, but it feels like the Red Sox winning six straight (on top of their two Sunday wins) is the most unlikely part of that equation.
In taking both games on Sunday, the Red Sox at least kept their postseason hopes alive for a few more days. The earliest Boston can be eliminated is Tuesday.
But it has felt inevitable that the Red Sox would miss the playoffs for the third straight season for a while now, and that should become a reality sometime in the near future. More realistically, the team should try to finish at .500 or above for the first time since 2021.