Red Sox offseason primer: Chaim Bloom has a lengthy to-do list
BOSTON -- It's getting cold out. It's dark before most people start their evening commute. That must mean baseball hot stove season is upon us.
MLB free agency officially begins on Thursday, which should kick-start one of the most important offseasons in recent history for the Boston Red Sox. Chaim Bloom is charged with adding all the necessary pieces to turn a last-place team into a contender again.
He only added around the edges last offseason, and a disappointing campaign followed. It will not be an easy fix this winter, with holes just about everywhere on the roster.
There could be a massive crater to fill at shortstop. The outfield needs a lot more pop after suffering a serious power outage in 2022. And there is a real lack of pitching at both the front end of the rotation and the back of the bullpen.
So good luck with all of that, Chaim. Hopefully John Henry opens up the coin purse for you a bit to get this all done.
Before the offseason frenzy begins, here's a quick snapshot of what the Red Sox are working with and what they need in this very important winter leading up to the 2023 season.
Free Agents
Xander Bogaerts, SS
Nathan Eovaldi, RHP
Rich Hill, LHP
J.D. Martinez, DHJames Paxton, LHP (picked up his player option on Wednesday)
Tommy Pham, OF (team declined mutual option)
Matt Strahm, LHP
Michael Wacha, RHP
Bogaerts opted out of the final three years of his team-friendly contract. The Boston brass keeps saying they want to sign Bogaerts, but they low-balled him last spring and their words remain just words at the moment. If they really wanted him to finish his career in Boston, it would have gotten done by now. So don't expect Bogaerts back. Dave Dombrowski is probably eager to send the shortstop a high-paying offer that he cannot refuse to come join the Phillies.
The team declined options on both James Paxton (two years) and Tommy Pham. Paxton never threw a pitch for the Red Sox as he recovered from Tommy John surgery and then suffered a lat strain in August, but he has a player option for the 2023 season. Pham showed that he still has something left in his 32 games with the team after the deadline, and could be a solid depth piece in the outfield.
Martinez is out of opt-ins with the Red Sox and probably won't be back. Eovaldi may be priced out of Boston's range too, even though he has essentially been the team's ace the last two seasons.
Needs
Shortstop (or second base)
Bogaerts is the team's "Plan A" -- or at least that is the big talking point until Xander signs elsewhere. Should that happen, the Sox will have to find another shortstop.
Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, and Dansby Swanson are all free agents, and all are younger than Bogaerts. But that will mean their price tag is a lot higher than Xander's, and chances are the Red Sox aren't going to invest heavily in the position if Bogaerts leaves. Not when they have Trevor Story for another five years at about $116 million.
"It doesn't seem like they're going to spend big on a shortstop," a league source told MLB.com's Mark Feinsand. "They knew this was a possibility when they signed Story last year."
So if Bogaerts leaves and the Red Sox decide to move Story to short, the team will have to go find a second baseman, one that probably won't make north of $100 million. It's a pretty frugal way to cut some salary, but no one is going to be particularly happy about losing Bogaerts' steady bat in the process.
A long-term deal for Devers
If the Red Sox let Bogaerts walk, they have to sign Rafael Devers to a long-term deal. It's the only way to show fans that they're serious about contending.
That and Devers is really stinkin' good. That should be reason enough to back up the brinks truck for the third baseman.
Outfield pop
Enrique Hernandez playing only 93 games greatly hurt Boston's outfield production last season. But that doesn't explain why no one in the outfield hit for much power throughout 2022.
J.D. Martinez hit just 16 homers last season. Alex Verdugo had just 11. In the land of WAR, no Red Sox outfielder cracked the Top 100. Or Top 150. Verdugo was the first to appear on the list, coming in at 188 with a WAR of 1.2. Martinez came in at No. 200 with a WAR of 1.1.
Martinez is a free agent and won't be back. At the moment, Boston has Hernandez and Verdugo in the outfield, and the depth behind them isn't anything special.
There is someone pretty special on the market this offseason: Aaron Judge. Nothing would be sweeter than the Red Sox stealing away the face of the Yankees, which would really reignite the rivalry.
But Judge is going to make some serious bank this winter, and the Red Sox probably don't want to make that kind of investment. So you can put him in the "extremely unlikely" category, though Boston will certainly do what it can to drive the price up for their rival. (The Judge camp will do the same as well.)
And if you are dreaming of Shohei Ohtani manning the outfield (and toeing the rubber) in Boston, don't bother waking up. The Red Sox have the pieces to make an Ohtani trade, but that just isn't part of Bloom's DNA. He loves those prospects that he spent years acquiring, and he probably wouldn't even part with them for a unicorn like Ohtani.
Brandon Nimmo of the Mets and Joc Pederson of the Giants are other enticing free agent names, but they too will probably be priced out for the Red Sox. (We keep saying that and it keeps getting more and more baffling.)
Mitch Hannigan, 32, missed most of last year with an ankle injury and may be looking for a prove it kind of deal. And if the Sox don't want to dabble in free agent outfielders, Bloom should have the ammo to go snag one on the trade market.
A closer
Here's a little trivia question for you: Who led the Red Sox in saves in 2022?
It wasn't one guy, it was three: Matt Barnes, John Schreiber, and Tanner Houck, all of whom saved eight games for Boston in 2022. Mash them together and Boston almost had a real closer for 2022. Almost.
The Red Sox were confident that Barnes would regain his closer form last season, but that never happened. Houck looked good in the role for a while, but then he suffered a back injury. Schreiber saved the day on a number of occasions, but last season was his first experience as a closer.
With all the uncertainty at the back end of the bullpen, Boston's relief corps ranked near the bottom of baseball. Their 29 blown saves were the fifth-most in the Majors. Relievers were tagged with 33 losses, which was tied for the eight-most in the league.
A real, actual closer would drastically help the bullpen.
A starter
At the moment, the Boston rotation looks like this: Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, and Tanner Houck. Garrett Whitlock could also be used as a starter if they'd like to continue to ruin his electric arm.
Sale at the front end of the mix is terrifying. There is no guarantee that the lefty will make it to May, let alone a full season. Pivetta is a solid mid-rotation guy, but he cannot be relied on as a No. 2.
It would be in Boston's best interest to go out and sign an ace, but they probably won't make the financial commitment needed to snag a Jacob deGrom or Carlos Rodon. Veteran Charlie Morton, 40, is an option if the Braves feel his $20 million player option is too rich, and Noah Syndergaard could probably be gotten with a "prove it" deal after his up-and-down season for the Angels and Phillies.
Another starter
One won't be enough. Bloom and the Sox need to sign multiple starters to stabilize the rotation. They should really do everything they can to convince Eovaldi to sign a one or two-year deal, and bring back Michael Wacha. Doing that -- while also adding a frontline guy -- would put the Sox rotation in a pretty good spot heading into 2023.
James Paxton picked up his player option on Wednesday, but relying on the 34-year-old who has pitched just 21 innings since 2020 would be a risky proposition.
Behind the plate
The Red Sox finished last season with Connor Wong and Reese McGuire as their catching tandem. Neither figures to be an everyday guy behind the plate, though either would make for a good backup backstop.
But the Sox would be wise to go get an everyday catcher. Willson Contreras is coming off his third All-Star season, and is the biggest name on the backstop market. Gary Sanchez and two-time Gold Glover Tucker Barnhart are other options, and a reunion with Christian Vazquez (and his brand new World Series ring) shouldn't be ruled out either.