Red Sox miss out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto: What's next?

BOSTON -- Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto was never going to solve all of the Red Sox' problems. But he figured to potentially be a major step in the right direction for a team in need of pitching.

Now, of course, the Red Sox won't be making that stride, after Yamamoto agreed to a massive 12-year, $325 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The deal pushed the Dodgers over the billion-dollar mark in spending this offseason, after inking Shohei Ohtana to a 10-year, $700 million deal earlier this month.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, have signed Cooper Criswell (career 5.97 ERA) and acquired three pitchers with various ceilings in the Alex Verdugo trade. Other than that, the pitching staff remains intact. As a reminder, the starting staff looks like this (with last year's stats in parentheses:

Brayan Bello (12-11, 4.24 ERA, 157 IP)
Tanner Houck (6-10, 5.01 ERA, 106 IP)
Chris Sale (6-5, 4.30 ERA, 102.2 IP)
Kutter Crawford (6-8, 4.04 ERA, 129.1 IP)

Nick Pivetta (10-9, 4.04 ERA, 142.2 IP) moved from the rotation to the bullpen and then back to the rotation again last year, and he remains under team control for another year. Garrett Whitlock likewise went from the rotation to the bullpen, turning in what was by far the worst season of his three-year career. 

The Red Sox may want better seasons from all of those pitchers, and surely, they'll get improvements from some of them. But they can't realistically enter the season with that staff and hope for better results than they've had the past two years.

So with Yamamoto out of the picture -- and with it seeming like the Red Sox were never major players for him -- here's what the market looks like now that other players will be looking to sign.

Jordan Montgomery

Signing Jordan Montgomery would require the Red Sox to pay top dollar for a player who may have just had the best season he'll ever have. But that's the cost of doing business in free agency sometimes.

Montgomery went 10-11 over 32 starts for the Cardinals and Rangers last year but posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.193 WHIP while pitching a career-high 188.2 innings. In the playoffs, he went 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA in six appearances (five starts) while helping to lead Texas to a World Series championship.

Montgomery is reportedly living in Boston this offseason while his wife begins a residency at an area hospital, so Boston could have a strong appeal to the pitcher ... as long as the money is comparable to other offers.

Montgomery is expected to fetch over $20 million per year on a contract that could run for five or six years. Chaim Bloom was hesitant to give Nathan Eovaldi two years and $34 million a year ago. This offseason will show if Craig Breslow is a bit more free with his spending than his predecessor.

Blake Snell

Similar to Montgomery, signing Blake Snell would require paying top dollar for a player who may have just hit his peak. The 31-year-old Snell took home his second career Cy Young award this offseason, after going 14-9 with a league-leading 2.25 ERA and 1.189 WHIP for the Padres.

He previously won a Cy Young when he went 21-5 with a 1.89 ERA for the Rays in 2018. In his career, he's 71-55 with a 3.20 ERA, averaging 26 starts per year (excluding the shortened 2020 season). He set a career high with 32 starts last year, just the second time he's made more than 27 starts in a season. (The 2018 Cy Young season was the other.)

The Padres reportedly believe that Snell may make $200 million as a free agent. He may end up making less than that, but he clearly won't be cheap.

Shota Imanaga

While he hasn't drawn the same level of interest as Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga figures to be the next Japanese pitcher in line to get a healthy deal from an MLB team. Imanaga introduced himself to America with a strong World Baseball Classic showing, going 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in three games (one start). That win came against Team USA in the championship game, when he allowed just one run (a solo shot by Trea Turner) in his two innings of work. He struck out Paul Goldschmidt and Cedric Mullens, while twice retiring Mookie Betts in that outing.

In his career in Japan, he's 64-50 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.118 WHIP.

Estimates for an Imanaga contract have been in the range of $15 million per year for five or six years, plus a posting fee to Yokohama.

Marcus Stroman

Stroman might not be considered a top-of-the-market option, but he's not too far behind. He's 26-29 over the last three years, but with a 3.45 ERA and 1.180 WHIP. He'll turn 33 in May, so he's not looking at a five- or six-year deal like Montgomery or Snell. But he opted out of a $21 million payday for the 2024 season, so he'll still be pricey. 

Trade Possibilities

The names of Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber and Corbin Burnes have been bandied about all offseason as potential trade candidates. The trade market can always be unpredictable, though, so nothing can ever be considered a sure thing.

All that's known for now? If the Red Sox want to build a rotation that can compete in the AL East and beyond, they're going to have to spend.