Red Sox shaping up to look like buyers before trade deadline
BOSTON -- The Boston Red Sox have done it. They have swept a very bad baseball team.
While such an outcome should have been a given when the moribund Oakland A's stopped by Fenway Park this weekend, the 2023 Red Sox haven't exactly taken care of business when such opportunities have been presented to them this season. This weekend, though, there wasn't much messing around, with two comfortable wins preceding a late come-from-behind victory on Sunday afternoon.
The sweep came on the heels of Boston taking two of three from Texas and sweeping the Blue Jays in Toronto, leaving them at 48-43 on the season. In terms of the standings, well, they're still in last place in the AL East. But they're a game behind the Yankees and two games behind the Blue Jays, two teams Boston has owned this season -- to the tune of a 12-1 combined record.
In the wild-card race, the Red Sox remain on the outside of the bubble, though they're just two games behind Houston and Toronto for the second and third wild cards, with only the Yankees sandwiched between them.
AL Wild-Card Standings at All-Star Break
1. Baltimore, 54-35
2. Toronto, 50-41
3. Houston, 50-41
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4. NY Yankees, 49-42, 1 GB
5. Boston, 48-43, 2 GB
6. Seattle, 45-44, 4 GB
7. LA Angels, 45-46, 5 GB
7. Minnesota, 45-46, 5 GB
It may not be overly impressive, but it represents a major step forward from where Boston was after getting swept by the Marlins in late June. At that point, the Red Sox were 40-42, five games out of the third wild-card spot with two teams ahead of them.
And looking ahead, if the Red Sox can continue to rack up wins against inferior teams, they're going to look like buyers heading into the Aug. 1 trade deadline. There is a distinction there, though, between looking like buyers and being buyers.
The reason they'll look like buyers relates largely to the schedule. Coming out of the All-Star break, the Red Sox have a six-game road trip against the Cubs (42-47) and A's (25-67). They should win four but really should win five of those games. If they do, they'll be 53-44 on July 20, which would be their season-high for games over .500.
After that, the Red Sox will host a massively disappointing Mets team for three games at Fenway before hosting a two-game set against the Braves, who are the best team in baseball. We'll project those five games to come out at 2-3. They then head out west for a three-game set with Gabe Kapler's Giants, before going to Seattle, which is where the team will be during the deadline.
Realistically, when the deadline hits, the Red Sox' record should look something like 57-49, give or take a couple of games. And with that likely being the case, it's safe to assume that the Red Sox won't be selling off many or even any pieces as they try to remain alive in that wild-card race.
When faced with the buy-or-sell decision last year at the deadline, Chaim Bloom chose a little bit of both. With the Red Sox at 51-52 and 3.5 games out of a playoff spot, Bloom traded away Christian Vazquez a day before the deadline. With free agents-to-be like Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi and (an injured) Michael Wacha, Bloom could have made some major moves to replenish the farm system while punting on what was shaping up to be a lost season anyway. Instead, he kept all those players and made some minor additions -- Tommy Pham, Reese McGuire, Eric Hosmer -- to halfheartedly signal that the Red Sox would be vying for postseason contention.
The team responded by losing six of their next seven games, never again getting above .500 before finishing at 78-84, eight games out of a playoff spot.
The unknown with this season will be whether the Red Sox can actually contend after the deadline. From the optimistic standpoint, there are some winnable series in August, including a 10-game stretch against the Royals (26-65), Tigers (39-50) and Nationals (36-54). The Red Sox could also get Chris Sale and Trevor Story back in early August, and with an addition or two in the rotation, there's reason to believe in the sustainability. (The team will surely try to sell both additions as "trade deadline pickups," though we know better than to label them as such.)
On the flip side, there's a very real element of the Red Sox being streaky -- both good and bad. Just about every winning streak has been followed by a losing streak, with the ultimate result being a see-saw journey to .500. Buying in now, when the Red Sox are five games over .500 after sweeping the worst team in baseball, could be seen as imprudent, given the body of evidence.
And if Bloom were to sell at this deadline, he would have some major sell-high options in front of him, from James Paxton to Adam Duvall to Jarren Duran to Alex Verdugo and beyond. Players like Paxton and Duvall would be attractive to any team looking to beef up for a stretch run. If the Red Sox believe Duran's current hot stretch is beyond his normal capabilities, now would be the time to get a team to pay a hefty price for the speedy, young outfielder with alluring power numbers. And with a year remaining before he hits free agency, Verdugo could net a solid return if the Red Sox wanted to cash in on the best year of his career. Those are the types of moves that could build up Boston's prospect pool and strengthen the team's long-term future.
But if you're Chaim Bloom, and if the bosses want a playoff team, there likely won't be any hesitation to swing a deal or two to bulk up this year's club in order to get that done. Looking back at that Winter Weekend fiasco, it still stands out how often the front office/ownership group looked back on almost making the World Series in 2021 as being a major accomplishment for the franchise. The message from that night was that good enough is good enough for this current era of Boston Red Sox baseball, so simply making the tournament will be seen as a win for the 2023 season.
So -- right or wrong, wise or otherwise -- it feels like a safe bet to assume Bloom will be at the buyers' table when that deadline hits on Aug. 1. Whether that's the best news for the long-term health of the franchise can and should be debated, but the current run combined with the soft upcoming schedule seems to ensure that it will be a reality.