Red Sox can hit All-Star break in thick of race for wild card ... if they can just beat the A's
BOSTON -- For just about every moment of the 2023 MLB season, the Boston Red Sox have been difficult to properly figure out.
We know that they're not great and they're not awful. That much hasn't fluctuated. What's been difficult to put a finger on, though, has been their performance against good teams compared to their performance against bad teams.
The odd trend continued this week, when the Red Sox won two of three against the first-place Texas Rangers, even beating potential AL All-Star Game starter Nathan Eovaldi in the series finale on Thursday.
With that win, the Red Sox improved to 33-28 against teams that are currently over .500. Comparatively, they're 12-15 against teams that are .500 or worse. That includes a 1-5 record against teams currently in last place.
The discrepancy is even stranger when their record against the Rays -- a team that currently owns them -- is removed. Taking out Boston's 1-7 showing vs. Tampa Bay, the team is 32-21 against teams better than .500. They're also 10-8 against teams currently in first place of divisions that aren't the AL East.
It's a bit peculiar, and it's also quite relevant entering this weekend.
The Red Sox will welcome the historically bad Oakland Athletics to Fenway Park for a three-game set ahead of the All-Star break. Theoretically, the 45-43 Red Sox should be able to win at least two but realistically all three games against the 25-64 A's. Theoretically, anyway.
What happens in reality remains difficult to predict. The Red Sox went 1-2 at home against the Rockies, who own the third-worst record in Major League Baseball. And they got swept at home by the Cardinals, who have the fifth-worst record in MLB. They lost two of three to the White Sox, who are just as bad as St. Louis, and they got swept at home by the Pirates, who are 40-47. The successes against baseball's cellar dwellers have been much harder to come by for Boston.
Yet if ever there were a weekend to break the trend, it would be this one. The Red Sox have climbed past the Angels in the American League wild-card race. The Red Sox are now three games behind the Yankees and Blue Jays, who are currently tied for that last wild-card spot, and the Astros -- currently in the second wild-card spot -- are just one game up on those two teams.
A three-game sweep for Boston would leave the Red Sox at 48-43 at the All-Star break. Though it likely wouldn't get them into playoff position, it would get them closer to the doorstep. And with a soft landing to start the second half -- at the 40-46 Cubs, at the dreadful A's, back home against the massively underperforming Mets -- the Red Sox ought to pick now as the time they stop losing to the league's worst teams. If not, they're likely to remain on the periphery of that playoff bubble for the duration of the summer.