Whether by trade or free agency, the Red Sox have to land an ace pitcher this offseason
BOSTON -- With the Red Sox missing the playoffs for a third straight season, the team has some big needs to tend to this offseason. Boston's biggest need remains at the front of the team's rotation.
The Red Sox got impressive seasons out of Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford in 2024, and Brayan Bello was able to bounce back after a rough start. That trio should solidify the middle of the Red Sox rotation in 2025, and Lucas Giolito is coming back after he lost his 2024 season because of an internal brace procedure to repair his UCL. Garrett Whitlock, who will be returning from Tommy John surgery, will likely be coming out of the bullpen when he gets back to the mound.
What's missing from that equation -- and has been missing from the Boston rotation the last few years -- is an ace to lead the way. A bulldog to take the ball every five days that will give Boston a quality start and a chance to win each time out.
While the Red Sox have a bevvy of talent prospects in the pipeline, none of them are pitchers. So chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is going to have to look elsewhere to address Boston's most glaring need. He's going to be aggressive in doing so according to multiple reports.
In a perfect world, the Red Sox will bring in two top-line pitchers. There are a number of solid free-agent options this winter, plus a few top-end hurlers that will likely be available on the trade market.
Aces the Red Sox could add via free agency
There are three big pitchers the Red Sox could throw a bunch of money at to come in and be their ace: Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and Blake Snell. Projections have Burnes getting roughly $200 million this offseason, and Fried and Snell won't be much cheeper.
Corbin Burnes
2024 stats: 15-8, 2.95 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 189.1 IP, 172 K, 47 BB
Burnes made 31 starts as the workhorse ace of the Orioles last season, showing no issues with his move from the National League to the American League. Burnes made his fourth straight All-Star squad, and has a shot at becoming just the eighth pitcher to win the Cy Young in both leagues when the award is announced next week. (Tarik Skubal may have something to say about that though.)
The Orioles are going to do everything they can to re-sign Burnes, and there will be plenty of other suitors when the free-agency frenzy begins. But if the Red Sox really want Burnes, they should have the money to give him the best offer.
Max Fried
2024 stats: 10-10, 3.42 ERA, 1.195 WHIP, 165.2 IP, 157 K, 55 BB
Fried is the most appealing free agent for Boston because he's a lefty, and the Red Sox have no southpaws for their starting rotation at the moment. The 30-year-old is coming off his second All-Star nod in the last three seasons, and has been steady throughout his eight-year career with a 73-36 record, a 3.07 ERA, three Gold Gloves, and a World Series ring. Durability is a slight issue, as Fried has only pitched more than 180 innings once over his eight-year career, but he's going to be one of the most sought-after pitchers on the market this winter.
The Red Sox may also have the inside track to land Fried if he leaves Atlanta. Giolito was high school teammates with Fried, and has already made a pitch for him to come to Boston.
Blake Snell
2024 stats: 5-3, 3.12 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 104 IP, 145 SO, 44 BB
Snell will turn 32 in December and made just 20 starts for the Giants last season. He didn't sign with San Francisco until the day before the season opened, but it shouldn't take as long for Snell to find a home this winter.
Snell won the NL Cy Young award in 2023 -- the second of his career -- and followed that up by fanning 145 batters over just 104 innings last season, good for a career-best 12.5 K/9 rate.
Snell would be a fine veteran addition to the Boston rotation, but him alone won't do the trick this offseason.
Jack Flaherty
2024 stats: 13-7, 3.17 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 162 IP, 194 SO, 55 BB
Now we're getting into that second-tier of pitchers on the free-agent market, but Flaherty is at the top of that list. He was hoping for a multi-year deal when he hit free agency last winter, but ended up settling for a one-year, $14 million deal with the Tigers. It worked out well for Flaherty as he was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the deadline and went on to win a World Series. He should get that multi-year contract this winter.
Flaherty had a 2.85 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 18 starts with the Tigers last season, before posting a 3.58 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 10 starts with the Dodgers. The 29-year-old was just 1-2 with a 7.36 ERA over his five postseason starts for the Dodgers.
Aces the Red Sox could land via trade
The Red Sox could also explore the trade market to land an ace if they don't want to pay out the nose for established talent in the rotation. But really, they have the ammo to do both.
There are a few young arms available via trade, but they'd potentially cost Boston one of their four promising prospects (Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell, or Kyle Teel), another highly-touted prospect or two, and/or potentially guys off the Major League roster like Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, or Wilyer Abreu. It's a hefty price to pay, but that's the going rate for a potential ace.
Here are a few names to watch if the Red Sox go the trade route to address their need for an ace.
Garrett Crochet
The 25-year-old Crochet was an All-Star last year in his first full season as a starter. He was only 6-12 for the lowly White Sox, but had a 3.58 ERA and a 1.068 WHIP across 142 innings pitched over 31 starts. He had an ace-like strikeout-to-walk ratio, fanning 209 batters to just 33 free-passes issued.
Crochet would look great at the front of the Boston rotation, but it's going to cost a lot to get him to change the color of his Sox. The White Sox reportedly want Major League talent in return, so Durran or Abreu could frontline the trade package. That might mean the Red Sox can hang onto their Big Four of prospects, with Franklin Arias, Miguel Bleis, Braden Montgomery, and/or Yoeilin Cespedes part of the offer as well.
Boston would also probably like to work out an extension with Crochet if they can swing a deal. But the southpaw definitely has the potential to front a rotation for years to come.
George Kirby
Kirby, a 26-year-old righty, has shown ace potential over his three MLB seasons with the Seattle Mariners. He owns a 3.43 ERA and 1.093 WHIP over 89 starts and 511.2 innings, striking out 484 to just 64 walks. However, he led the AL in hits allowed at 181 last season.
Kirby also become a favorite among Boston fans last July when he got the start against the Red Sox at Fenway Park. His first pitch that afternoon was a knuckleball in honor of the late, great Tim Wakefield, who died of brain cancer the previous October.
"He was a special player," Kirby said of Wakefield after the game. "So just being able to do it here in Boston was pretty cool."
The Mariners have an abundance of young arms in their rotation, but are in desperate need of some young bats. The Red Sox have plenty of them, and may be able to get Kirby without giving up any of their Big Four prospects, with a trade package potentially centered around Casas. It will depend on what the Mariners want in return for the young right-hander.
Bryan Woo
And if the Red Sox and Mariners can't agree on a Kirby trade, maybe Boston can set its sights on Bryan Woo. The 24-year-old right-hander has made 40 starts over his two seasons in the big leagues, fanning 194 batters and touting a 3.44 ERA over 209 innings pitched.
Woo started 22 games for Seattle last season, and went 9-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.898 WHIP. He struck out 101 batters over 121.1 innings while issuing just 13 walks. But injuries are a concern, as he missed the first six weeks of the 2024 season with right elbow inflammation and then missed time with a hamstring stain in late June.
Given those concerns, there's a chance the Red Sox could land Woo for Casas or Durran and not have to tap into their pool or prospects. That would give them a cost-controlled arm at the front of their rotation, but one that would carry some risk given Woo's injury history and lack of a track record as an established ace.
However the Red Sox go about it, they need to add an ace to their staff this offseason, plus at least one more starter to help really solidify the rotation for 2025 and beyond.