Record-Breaking Warmth Expected For Christmas Eve
BOSTON (CBS) -- By now, you have undoubtedly heard the news -- the weather for this Christmas is going to anything but typical. In November and early December the question was, "Would it be a white Christmas"? We gave up on those chances a long time ago, you'd have a better chance at seeing Santa himself coming down your chimney than see any white on the ground this holiday.
So, snow is out, but this wouldn't be the first year without any measurable snowfall before Dec. 25. We have gone through Dec. 31 without any snow on four occasions, and as recently as 1999. We waited until Jan. 13, 2000 for our first measurable snowfall back in that season (we still managed to scrape together nearly 25" of snow from Jan-March).
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But it isn't just that it is going to be a green/brown Christmas that is a story this year, it is the persistent and remarkable warmth that is the chatter around the watercoolers. Eric Fisher wrote a terrific blog breaking down all the potential records so I won't rehash every single number here. However, it is worth repeating that after a top 10 warmest autumn and a top 10 warmest November that we are now in line for what could be the warmest December ever recorded! With 10 days to go this month, we are averaging more than 9 degrees above average per day.
The warmest December on record right now is 2006 with an average temperature of 41.0 degrees. Our average right now stands at 45.7 degrees. Of course that is skewed a bit because we have what is typically the coldest part of the month still to come. This month however, is anything but typical, with yet another surge of record breaking warmth set to arrive just in time for Santa to make his ride.
At this point the question is not WILL we break a record on Christmas Eve, but instead how much will we shatter it by? The current record of 61 degrees set back in 1996 will almost certainly go down, currently we are forecasting 66 degrees for Thursday, but 68 or even 70 is not impossible. The record on Christmas day, 65 set back in 1889, is likely to hold firm (our forecast is a not-too-shabby 60 degrees).
So, Mrs. Claus, if you are reading this, you may want to pack your hubby a lighter coat this year, perhaps a red windbreaker. Something light and breathable and don't forget Santa and his reindeer will need to stay well hydrated!
As for Rudolph, his job of lighting the way will be much easier than normal this year. For the first time since 1977, there will be a full moon to light the countryside! The full "Cold Moon" occurs officially at 6:11 a.m. on the 25th.
Finally, I keep reading and hearing that last December was also mild and relatively snow-free, so we should be prepared for a repeat of what happened last January and February. Let's hold our horses a bit. First of all, last winter was most likely a once in a lifetime event. We didn't just break snow and cold records, we annihilated them. Let me assure you, that is NOT going to be the case again this year, despite what the Farmer's Almanac has predicted (no disrespect).
Our oceans are very warm (Pacific and Atlantic) and El Nino is still raging off the coast of South America. Prolonged stretches of cold, Arctic air are NOT in the cards this winter. Will it snow eventually. . . yes. Might we have a nor'easter or two. . . sure. But unlike last winter's powder blizzards, this time around there will likely be more rain and ice involved as well as warmer days mixed in to help with melting. Our official WBZ winter forecast was for a milder than average winter and slightly less snowfall than average. I see no reason to deviate from that now.
The WBZ weather team would like to wish everyone a happy and safe holiday.
Follow Terry on Twitter @TerryWBZ