Quick Keys For Patriots Vs. Broncos In AFC Championship Game
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- The Patriots played and won their playoff game less than 48 hours ago, but this is NFL playoff season, which means next week is already this week.
For as much as the Patriots have accomplished to earn their fifth straight trip to the conference title game, it won't mean much if they're unable to get the job done in Denver on Sunday afternoon. Certainly winning in that city has always been a mountain for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady to climb, as the Patriots are 2-6 since 2001 when playing in Denver.
Granted, the '01 loss and the '03 win, along with the regular season and playoff losses in 2005, don't really have any bearing on this upcoming game. Brady and Belichick are the only involved parties, really, that remain from back then. For that matter, even the 2013 AFC Championship Game doesn't provide much insight as to what might happen this time around. Of the six Patriots to catch passes that day, five are no longer on the team; of the seven Broncos to catch passes, five are gone.
So the specifics of those past meetings really won't mean much at all come this Sunday, but Denver remains a difficult place for anyone to play, as the Broncos are 28-4 at home over the past four seasons. (However, the Broncos' 3-2 home record in the postseason does open the door for some New England optimism to creep in.)
Leaving history aside, here are some quick keys that will play major factors in determining the outcome of Sunday's game.
1. Health Of Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins
Say what you will about Peyton Manning's shortage of arm strength, but the Broncos can run the ball. When the Broncos took over in the fourth quarter on Sunday in a 13-13 game, they ran the ball nine times for 26 yards, including three straight from inside the 2-yard line to punch in the game's winning score.
The Patriots' run defense is a strength of the team, yet the task of stopping C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman becomes much more difficult if they are without Jamie Collins, and to a lesser but still noticeable extent, Jerod Mayo (Update: Mayo was placed on season-ending IR earlier this week). Collins suffered a back injury during Saturday's game and spent most of the second half on the bench. Mayo left the game with a shoulder injury. And Hightower, the Patriots' best run-stuffing linebacker, missed some snaps as well.
Collins and Hightower will need to be healthy in order to keep the Broncos from extending drives. You'll remember that in the Patriots' Week 12 trip to Denver, Hightower spent half of the game on the sideline with a knee injury, as Anderson ran for 113 yards and two touchdowns, including the 48-yard game-winner in overtime. Hillman ran for 59 yards and a touchdown as well.
Chandler Jones overcoming what looked like a knee injury would also go a long way, as the immobile-as-ever Manning is a strip-sack waiting to happen for a pass rusher like Jones.
2. Rob Gronkowski's Knee
T.J. Ward may not quite be on the level of Bernard Pollard on New England's list of Nausea-Inducing Players To Watch, but he's close. When Ward was with the Browns, he ended Gronkowski's 2013 season with a hit directly aimed for the tight end's knee. And last year in the regular season, Ward went knee-hunting once again early on, popping up from the turf and clapping after sending Gronkowski helicoptering through the air.
And, of course, Gronkowski's knee was again the target of a diving Broncos helmet earlier this season, though Darian Stewart seemed to only make contact with the tight end's lifted right leg. Gronkowski was carted off, but he ended up missing minimal time.
The point is obvious: More so than usual, Gronkowski needs to be hyper-protective of that right leg. If it costs him some yards after the catch, then that's a worthwhile price to pay for making sure that he's able to play the entire game.
After a ho-hum, seven-catch, 83-yard, two-touchdown day against Kansas City, it's beyond obvious how important Gronkowski is to the overall abilities of the New England offense.
3. Julian Edelman's Foot, On Grass
Receiver Julian Edelman played out of his mind on Saturday, better than just about anybody could have expected in what was his first game back after suffering a broken bone in his foot in mid-November. He caught 10 passes for 100 yards, and could have done even more damage if not for a few drops, which he attributed to rushing to make moves before completing the catch.
It was an incredible performance, and one from which he emerged no worse for the wear. But this week presents a new challenge in that it will be played on natural grass.
It shouldn't be the biggest factor, but it remains a factor. Instead of a rubbery, cushioned-type of footing, he'll be planting on a grass field that's quite beaten down at this point of the year, especially outside of the hashes.
Footwear with longer spikes will presumably enter the mix, which again is a factor for Edelman, who played Saturday with a protective plate in his shoe.
We know better than to say that Edelman can't do it, but how he responds to the added challenge of playing on a natural surface will go a long way toward the effectiveness of the entire offense.
4. Special Teams
In the flurry of the Gronkowski injury and the game-winning scamper in overtime, it may have gone forgotten that the Patriots would very likely have won that game in Week 12 if not for a costly turnover on special teams.
It came in the opening minute of the fourth quarter, when the Patriots were leading 21-7. Following a Denver three-and-out, Chris Harper stood under a Britton Colquitt punt at the New England 35-yard line. With snow falling, Harper never caught the punt, instead bobbling it and allowing it to fall to the turf. Shaquil Barrett fell right on top, and the Broncos took over in Patriots territory with new life. Four plays later, they were in the end zone.
If the Patriots are going to lose this game, it might come down to a mistake like that. The Denver offense is simply not the explosive machine it once was, so gifting any extra possessions is what could doom the Patriots the most.
Harper was inactive for New England in the divisional round, and Keshawn Martin and Danny Amendola will likely handle punt-returning duties. Sure hands, above all else, will be needed from them.
5. Make Manning (Try To) Beat You
Peyton Manning never really has been one to step up in the postseason, so in that sense, the lack of arm strength may be a blessing in disguise. There's never been a better pre-snap quarterback than Manning, and his ability to ensure the Broncos are in the right play at the right time is a decided advantage for Denver, no matter who the opponent may be. (That advantage is minuscule with this week's opponent, however.)
So if Manning can come out of Sunday's game vs. New England with a similar stat line to what he had vs. Pittsburgh, that will likely mean he and the Broncos were able to do what they want offensively.
It's up to the Patriots to change that course of action. It starts, obviously, with containing the run, because if Anderson and Hillman are picking up four yards per carry, then Manning will only need to be called upon for short, high-percentage passes to keep the ball moving.
If the run can be contained -- or if the Patriots can build a sizable lead -- then it'll be on Matt Patricia to game-plan in a way that takes away the middle of the field and forces Manning to throw deep to the boundaries. It's a strategy they employed last year at Gillette in a game that saw Manning throw for more than 400 yards but also two interceptions in a 22-point Patriots victory.
On Sunday vs. Pittsburgh, Manning attempted just eight deep passes, completing two of them for a total of 50 yards. The deepest reliable pass in his repertoire right now is the 10-15-yard comeback route, one that can help keep drives moving but can't help put touchdowns on the board.
Given his situation, Manning's clearly uncomfortable making risky passes, so it's up to the Patriots to force him out of his comfort zone. Historically, good things have happened for the Patriots when they've been able to do that to No. 18.
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.