Previewing Bruins-Panthers series: Is there anywhere this could go wrong for Boston?
BOSTON -- For all intents and purposes, the regular season has been over for the Bruins for at least a month. A dominant lead in the standings tends to have that kind of effect.
But the Bruins kept themselves engaged by chasing history, and they went ahead and took care of that, setting new NHL records in wins with 65 and points with 135. History may not remember these Bruins as being better than the 1976-77 Canadiens, who recorded 132 standings points in just 80 games and without the benefit of adding any extra points with overtime wins. (The NHL didn't institute overtime until 1983. Hurray for ties!) But the point is ... the 2022-23 Boston Bruins were insanely, ridiculously good. In the regular season.
As the 2018-19 Tampa Bay Lightning proved, a great regular season means absolute diddly if a team fails to perform in the postseason. Those Lightning learned that by not just losing in the first round to an inferior team but by getting swept in the first round by an inferior team in Columbus. It was a shock to the entire hockey world, one that's still difficult to fathom. (Those Blue Jackets promptly lost to the Bruins in six games in the next round.)
While nobody is predicting a first-round exit via sweep for this year's Bruins (you can currently get +3500 odds on a Panthers sweep), the 2019 Lightning serve as a cautionary tale and a reminder that nothing in the Stanley Cup Playoffs comes easy.
With that in mind, here's a look at some key areas that figure to impact the forthcoming playoff series between the Bruins and Panthers, one that will begin Monday night at TD Garden.
The Record
The Bruins only lost 12 games in regulation this year. The Panthers delivered one of them. The Bruins also only lost five games in overtime or a shootout this year. The Panthers delivered one of those, too.
In doing so, the Panthers earned the distinction of being one of just two teams to earn two victories over the Bruins this season. (The Ottawa Senators, oddly enough, were the other.)
Whether that means anything is debatable, but it does mean the Panthers won't be heading into this series afraid of the Bruins and their regular-season record.
The Bruins, though, did dominate Florida in Boston, winning 5-3 in the third game of the season and winning 7-3 in a pre-Christmas matchup. Florida won a lopsided one, 5-2, against Boston before Thanksgiving, before winning 4-3 in overtime in late January.
The Firepower
In terms of offensive potency, the Panthers generate much of their offense up front from three players: Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe.
Tkachuk ranked fifth in the NHL this season with 109 points, the best season of his career. Verhaege ranked ninth in the league with 42 goals, adding 31 helpers for a 73-point season. It was, likewise, the best season of his career. And Barkov tallied 89 points (23-55-78) in just 68 games.
Florida also generated a ton of offense from the blue line, where Brandon Montour had 57 assists and 16 goals. Almost half of those points came on the man advantage, so the NHL's top-ranked penalty kill will be keyed in on Montour whenever the Florida power play takes the ice.
(Be prepared for Matthew Tkachuk to agitate, too. He led the Panthers with 123 penalty minutes, and he'll no doubt be looking to get under the skin of the Bruins whenever he gets the opportunity.)
The Goaltending
It's between the pipes where the Panthers may have their fatal flaw.
Sergei Bobrovsky is just four years into his massive seven-year, $70 million contract, and he posted ugly numbers this year: a 24-20-3 record, a .901 save percentage, and a 3.07 GAA. It's the second-worst season of his entire 13-year career, with his first year in Florida (2019-20) being the worst.
He lost three straight games in late March, allowing 13 goals on 94 shots (.862 save percentage), and a combination of that performance and an illness has led to him not seeing the ice in game action since March 27. Instead, the Panthers have ridden veteran journeyman Alex Lyon for the final eight games of the season. And he's delivered, to the tune of a 6-1-1 record, a .943 save percentage, and a 1.87 GAA.
Overall this season, Lyon is 14-9-4 with a .912 save percentage and a 2.89 GAA. Prior to this season, he had just 17 starts and 24 appearances in his five-year NHL career, posting a suboptimal .895 save percentage and 3.18 GAA.
Lyon's limited track record and Bobrovsky's unsteady play may not bode well for Florida in this series, to put it lightly. Lyon, though, did play pretty well in his lone start vs. Boston this year, stopping 37 of 40 shots faced in a 4-3 overtime win. That performance included 16 saves in each of the first two periods.
As you might expect, Lyon has never played in the postseason, and the challenge of stepping onto the ice in a frenzied TD Garden against the best team in hockey is something that shouldn't be underestimated.
Lyon also allowed four goals in his regular-season finale, thus potentially opening the door for Bobrovsky to start Game 1. The veteran only made one start vs. Boston this year, allowing four goals on 33 shots faced in a losing effort way back in mid-October.
Whichever way the Panthers go, there figures to be a massive question mark in the crease for this series.
(For the Bruins, Linus Ullmark started two games against the Panthers, going 2-0-0 with a .925 save percentage and a 3.00 GAA. Jeremy Swayman also started two games, going 0-1-1 with an .881 save percentage and 4.03 GAA.)
Health
Second-line Bruins center David Krejci hasn't played since April 1, when he spent an afternoon in Pittsburgh getting tossed all around the ice. While the Bruins have been limited with the information on Krejci, it has to be considered a possibility that he's not ready to go for Game 1 on Monday.
The Bruins are equipped to handle that loss, as Pavel Zacha has seamlessly slid over from wing to center on the second line. With David Pastrnak on the right side and Tyler Bertuzzi on the left side, the Bruins' top six is still plenty potent for a playoff series.
Beyond that, the Bruins did send Linus Ullmark off the ice early in his final start of the season this week, though they said that's just precautionary. Likewise, Patrice Bergeron didn't return to the ice after the first period on Thursday night, but Jim Montgomery said that was precautionary as well, with the coach rejecting Bergeron's plea to return to the ice.
The precautionary aspect of both issues is believable, but both will still warrant some watching as the series gets underway.
For the Panthers, Sam Bennett was placed on injured reserve this week, indicating he may not be healing from his groin injury as quickly as the team might have hoped.
Bennett scored 16 goals with 24 assists in 63 games, but he hasn't played since March 20 and could leave a hole up the middle for Florida in this series. If he is indeed out, expect the Bruins' third line of Taylor Hall-Charlie Coyle-Trent Frederic to dominate chances while on the ice, and expect Montgomery to try to capitalize with the last change on home ice when the Panthers' top two lines aren't on the ice.
Special Teams
The raw data on the special teams for the Bruins and Panthers shows this:
POWER PLAY
Bruins, 22.7%, 12th in NHL
Panthers, 23.5%, 10th in NHLPENALTY KILL
Bruins, 87.3%, 1st in NHL
Panthers 76.0%, 23rd in NHL
While the Bruins' power play had a rocky second half of the season (15.4% success rate since late January), the Panthers' leaky PK could present a soft landing of sorts for the power play to find some footing.
Special teams figure to play a key role in the series, too, as the Bruins were assessed the fourth-most penalties in the NHL this season with 149. The Panthers weren't far behind, ranking sixth with 140 penalties. Both teams also ranked in the top five of penalties drawn (Bruins third, Panthers fifth), so some striped arms are sure to be raised early and often throughout the series.
If the Panthers manage to win a game or two (or more), this is where they could work to find an advantage.
Top Scorers
Is regular-season success predictive of postseason results? Probably not! But here are the top performers from both teams in their four head-to-head meetings this year anyway!
BOSTON
1. Patrice Bergeron: 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points, +2
2. Jake DeBrusk: 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points, +4
2. Connor Clifton: 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points, +1
2. Brad Marchand: 0 goals, 4 assists, 4 points, -2
2. David Pastrnak: 4 goals, 0 assists, 4 points, -2FLORIDA
1. Aleksander Barkov: 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points, -1
2. Sam Reinhart: 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points, +3
2. Matthew Tkachuk: 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points, -3
4. Aaron Eklbad: 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points, -3
5. Sam Bennett: 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points, -3
The Big Picture
As everybody knows, crazy things happen in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Nothing is a given, even a matchup between the best regular-season team of all time and a 42-win Florida Panthers team.
Still, the thing about the Bruins this year is they just don't lose hockey games. And they certainly don't lose them in bunches. Losing a playoff series obviously requires a team to lose four times in seven games. There has been just one single seven-game stretch this season where the Bruins have lost four games. That came in late January/early February, when they scuffled with a 1-3-1 record over five games. But they followed that up with 10 straight wins, and they ended their season winning 15 of their last 16 games.
While everyone has to remain on their toes for this remarkable season to potentially short-circuit before June, this really shouldn't be the series where that's a real risk.
The Prediction
Absolutely nobody asked, but here we are: Bruins sweep.