Keller @ Large: Why Democrats believe Joe Biden can beat Donald Trump and the Republicans again
BOSTON - A new CBS News/YouGov poll on President Joe Biden's decision to seek another term finds a distinct lack of buzz among Democrats and Democratic leaners. Only 22% said they were "excited" about his re-election bid. Another 27% said they were "nervous."
A sign of trouble ahead for Biden '24? Maybe. Then again, 54% said they were "accepting" of the president's decision. Another 28% declared themselves "confident."
And assuming the Republicans continue on their current trajectory and nominate Donald Trump or another right-wing candidate, that acceptance and confidence will surely grow. Among those polled who supported the idea of another Biden run – a 55-45% majority of those surveyed - large majorities believe he can beat Trump or "most Republicans."
Biden's announcement video Tuesday helps explain why.
If you expected a laundry list of first-term accomplishments, you were disappointed. Instead, the video features six separate mentions of "freedom" or "freedoms." "There's nothing more important," says the candidate. "Personal freedom is fundamental to who we are as Americans. There's nothing more important."
With this emphasis, Biden attempts to co-opt – or at least neutralize – one of the better GOP talking points of the pandemic era, the debate over government encroachment on "freedoms" epitomized by COVID lockdowns, vaccine mandates and an array of school-related issues. Protecting "personal freedom" is the most mass-appeal argument of the abortion rights movement, and protecting American strategic interests (and humanity in general) from Russian aggression is the best foot forward for the Biden policy in Ukraine. And it fuels the Democrats' preferred branding of the Republicans as "extremists" who are "lining up to take on those bedrock freedoms."
The general election is a long ways away. In the meantime, Biden looks to consolidate his base in the video by larding it with images of supportive women and people of color. His relatively unpopular vice president, Kamala Harris, makes quite a few appearances.
Barring unexpected events or blunders, that slim majority of Democrats and leaners who declare themselves "accepting" of another Biden run will grow as the president and his party hammer away at the Republicans. With any kind of improvement in the economy and continued emphasis on unpopular positions by leading GOP figures, the number who are "confident" will increase as well.
At least, that's what the Democrats hope.
The contrast with Republican radicalism has worked well for them in two consecutive election cycles.
Will the third time be a charm as well?