Pitching Matchups: Clay Buchholz Set To Make Heavily Scrutinized Start Vs. Orioles
BOSTON (CBS) -- It is still, obviously, very early in the 2015 MLB season, so no sweeping conclusions should be made just yet. But when analyzing the available data, the performance of the Red Sox' starting rotation thus far does not look very good.
The starting staff owns a 6.16 ERA, which ranks them second-to-last in all of MLB. That's a mark that's taken some heavy hits in recent days, thanks to Clay Buchholz allowing nine runs on Sunday, Justin Masterson allowing seven runs on Tuesday, and Wade Miley allowing seven runs on Wednesday.
If not for the Red Sox offense averaging more than six runs per game, that 6-3 record could look a bit different.
Of course, none of this is particularly surprising. Throughout the entire offseason, the book on the Red Sox was that they'd be an offensive juggernaut with a questionable pitching staff. "There will be a lot of 9-8 games," most folks said.
So far, that's been close to the reality. They've basically come as advertised. But four-fifths of the rotation (everyone except Wade Miley) will get a start in this upcoming four-game series with the Orioles, and that will include Clay Buchholz. The theoretical No. 1 of the staff pitched a great game on Opening Day but got shellacked on Sunday night in Yankee Stadium. Many eager eyes in Boston will be glued to Buchholz's performance on Saturday.
Here's a look at that matchup, along with the other three games of the series.
Friday, April 17, 7:10 p.m.
Joe Kelly (1-0, 1.29 ERA) vs. Ubaldo Jimenez (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
In the "He's The Ace" world that is the Red Sox rotation, Kelly is the lone pitcher to live up to the billing thus far -- albeit in just one start. Kelly looked sharp last weekend in New York, allowing just one hit and one walk while striking out eight Yankees. He allowed one run over seven innings, which ties the longest start he's made in a Red Sox uniform.
But as good as Kelly looked in his one start, Jimenez looked even better in his. Like Kelly, the 31-year-old allowed one hit and one walk while striking out eight batters in his lone start, but unlike Kelly, Jimenez was able to keep the opponents from scoring.
KEY MATCHUP(S): Pablo Sandoval/Shane Victorino/Mike Napoli vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
The Red Sox lineup has quite a bit of experience against Jimenez, and this trio has found some decent success. Sandoval is 11-for-34 (.324) with two doubles, a triple and two home runs against Jimenez. He also has 10 strikeouts. Victorino is 6-for-17 (.353) with three walks (.450 OBP) and two home runs against Jimenez, while Napoli is 4-for-10 (.400) with two walks (.500 OBP), a double and two home runs.
If the Sox want to pile up runs, those three may be the ones to do the driving.
Saturday, April 18, 4:05 p.m.
Clay Buchholz (1-1, 7.84 ERA) vs. Chris Tillman (1-1, 3.86 ERA)
Both staff No. 1's have had night-and-day performances from their first start to their second this year. Buchholz baffled the Phillies, allowing zero runs on three hits with nine strikeouts over seven innings in his first time out, but he got rocked for 10 runs (nine earned) in just 3 1/3 innings against the Yankees.
A solo home run was all that Tillman allowed over 6 2/3 innings against the Rays in his first start, but he was touched for seven runs (only three were earned) his second time out against Toronto.
Buchholz will be looking to bounce back not only from that bad start on Sunday but also from his dreadful start vs. Baltimore last year, when he allowed six runs and seven hits over just 2 1/3 innings. It's too early to say that Buchholz will be as unpredictable in 2015 as he was last year, but he can make progress toward quieting that chatter with a solid start on Saturday.
KEY MATCHUP: Adam Jones vs. Clay Buchholz
Adam Jones has started the season on a tear for Baltimore, batting .406 with four homers, 11 RBIs and a 1.303 OPS. Though Jones' career numbers against Buchholz aren't great (.207/.257/.517), he has hit two homers and driven in 11 runs in 29 at-bats vs. Buchholz. The remaining eight members of the Orioles who have faced Buchholz are hitting a combined .197 against Buchholz with zero home runs.
Sunday, April 19, 1:35 p.m.
Rick Porcello (1-1, 3.86 ERA) vs Wei-Yin Chen (0-0, 4.35 ERA)
After being made a very rich man last week, Rick Porcello delivered in his first Fenway start as a member of the Red Sox, going eight innings while allowing four runs (three earned) on four hits and one walk. Though he did give up a pair of home runs, he was pitching with a lead the entire game, which he said changed his approach a bit.
Wei-Yin Chen has been so-so through two starts, but he pitched very well vs. Boston last year. In four starts, he went 3-1 with a 2.92 ERA, striking out 21 batters and walking just three. At the same time, Porcello wasn't too shabby against the O's, as he went 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his two starts vs. Baltimore.
KEY MATCHUP: Dustin Pedroia vs. Wei-Yin Chen
Dustin Pedroia, quite simply, owns Wei-Yin Chen. The second baseman is 14-for-27 lifetime (.519) against the lefty, hitting five doubles and one triple while working three walks for a .567 OBP and 1.344 OPS. The fact that Pedroia is now protected in the lineup by the Ortiz-Ramirez-Sandoval-Napoli quartet means what Chen will have no choice but to go after him. That's proven to be quite the chore in the past.
Monday, April 20, 11:05 a.m.
Justin Masterson (1-0, 7.59 ERA) vs. Miguel Gonzalez (1-1, 1.42 ERA)
The pressure will be on Justin Masterson to prevent turning the annual celebration that is the Patriots' Day game into a disappointment. After his most recent start, confidence may not be too high in that regard.
Masterson was roughed up by Washington this week, touched for seven runs (all earned) on eight hits and three walks over just 4 2/3 innings. The right-hander has not had much velocity thus far, with Fangraphs noting his fastball has averaged 88.3 mph so far this year. That's down from 90.3 mph last year and 93.1 mph the year before, while his sinker has dropped 4.7 mph since 2013 and his slider has dropped 4.8 mph. As much as anything, that lack of velocity has been the most concerning part about Masterson's start to the 2015 season.
Last year, Masterson struggled vs. Baltimore, going 0-1 with an 11.74 ERA in two starts. He allowed 15 hits, walked six and hit four batters in 7 2/3 innings over two starts in 2014 against the O's.
Gonzalez, meanwhile, has dealt quite well thus far. He's allowed just one earned run in each of his two starts, though he did get into trouble with walks (5) in his season debut against the Rays.
KEY MATCHUP: Alejandro De Aza vs. Justin Masterson
Alejandro De Aza is a career .269 hitter, but he's found great success against Masterson -- to the tune of a .324 batting average. De Aza is 11-for-34 vs. Masterson, as the two saw quite a bit of each other in the AL Central over the past few years. That includes a homer for De Aza, who has also worked three walks and driven in four RBIs vs. Masterson. Also of note is Ryan Flaherty, who is 5-for-8 (.625) with a double and a homer off Masterson.
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