Leaked Pentagon documents takeaways: Here are details on what they reveal
CBS News has reviewed over 50 documents that appear to be part of the leak of highly sensitive information. The documents' presence online prompted a criminal investigation that led to the arrest on Thursday of a 21-year-old Air National guardsman, Jack Teixeira.
It's not known how many documents Teixeira is alleged to have leaked. The criminal complaint against him refers to "dozens," and the Washington Post recently stated that it had reviewed about 300. CBS News has not authenticated the documents, though the Pentagon has acknowledged at least some of the leaked documents are real.
How recent is the information in the documents?
The majority of the documents CBS News has reviewed contain information from the end of February and the beginning of March.
Who leaked the Pentagon documents?
Jack Teixiera, a 21-year-old Massachusetts Air National Guardsman, has been accused of leaking the documents. Teixeira, of Dighton, Mass., was arrested on April 13 and according to the criminal complaint, has held a TS/SCI — Top Secret clearance, with access to Sensitive Compartmented Information — since 2021.
Are the documents from the CIA?
While some of the documents that have been reviewed by CBS News appeared to originate from the Central Intelligence Agency, others seem to come from other agencies across the intelligence community, including the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Geospatial Agency. These agencies collaborate with each other and others to collect, analyze and share intelligence across the U.S. government. There are 18 intelligence agencies, all of which are overseen by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
What was in the Pentagon leak?
A number of documents from intelligence agencies were disclosed, including information about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China, Turkey, South Korea and Israel.
What do the documents say about the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
There are maps detailing movements and figures relating to military capabilities on both sides of the conflict. One of the more pressing documents, dated Feb. 23, states that Ukraine's BUK (SA-11) air defense systems will be depleted by March 31, 2023 and its S300 (SA-10) missile systems will be depleted by May 2, 2023. The Wall Street Journal found a leaked document dated five days later, Feb. 28, which contained a slightly longer timeline that said Ukraine would run out of weapons for these systems on April 13 and May 3. This would pose a major challenge to Ukraine, leaving them vulnerable to air attacks by Russia.
Another document estimates that while Russia's ground capability is at 63%, its air capability stands at 92%. In contrast, Ukraine's ground capability is estimated to be at 83%, while its air capability stands at 68%. This imbalance in fighter jets and other aircraft puts the Ukrainian army at a disadvantage.
The documents also contain intelligence on casualties on both sides. Russia has sustained significantly more casualties than Ukraine, with an estimated 189,500-223,000 fighters killed or wounded in action. On Ukraine's side, losses are estimated to be between 124,500-131,000.
Some documents also offer insight into Russian infighting: one contained intelligence that Moscow's Federal Security Service (FSB) has accused the Russian Defense Ministry of "obfuscating" total Russian fighter casualties in Ukraine by excluding deaths from the National Guard, Wagner Group, Chechen mercenaries and other unofficial organizations. In one document the FSB claimed the actual figure of Russian dead and wounded is closer to 110,000. The last public figures released by Russia — from September 2022 — said only 5,937 Russian soldiers had been killed in combat.
Ukrainian civilian death estimates vary wildly, between 8,101-41,000.
The Ukrainian government has said the information contained in the documents has not jeopardized a planned counteroffensive.
What about the Wagner Group?
Information about the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, is included in documents about the war in Ukraine, especially in assessments of the fighting around Bakhmut, where Russia has enlisted the Wagner Group to supplement its official military forces. One document describes the assault on Bakhmut by the Wagner Group as "sluggish," noting that the group only progressed 2.7 kilometers per month from July 2022 to January 2023.
In early 2023, officials from Wagner sought weapons from other countries like Turkey, Syria, China and Belarus, probably for its fights in Mali, Ukraine or both. Wagner personnel were seeking drones, electronic warfare systems and howitzer artillery, according to one document. Belarus appears to have delivered some weapons, but China had not sent Wagner any weapons — even for testing — and had no contacts with Wagner as of January 2023.
Another document details Wagner's pursuit of potential contracts with the government of Haiti to help it contain local gangs, which have been running amok in the country, since the assassination of the Haitian president in 2021
Who was supposed to see the documents and who prepared them?
Many of the documents appear to be part of briefing slides for the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the Pentagon, which could include analysis from the Defense Intelligence Agency, Central Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency and other intelligence agencies. One of the documents is titled "CIA Operations Center Intelligence Update" and includes updates under different subheadings like "Near East," "Russia," "China" and "Africa." Several others indicate the document was prepared by the J2, the Joint Staff's intelligence arm.
What do the documents reveal about China?
Some documents contain information about China's weapons programs. For instance, one noted that on Feb. 25, China tested a "developmental" intermediate range ballistic missile-class multirole hypersonic glide vehicle. It traveled 2,100 kilometers in 12 minutes. Hypersonic weapons are harder to defend against since they travel at more than five times the speed of sound and maneuver while in air, unlike traditional ballistic missiles that travel in an arc.
Another two of the documents assessed that China is "probably" developing cyber attack capabilities to "hijack" control of Western satellites, and that Defense Department supply chains remain exposed to Chinese state-owned surveillance manufacturer Hikvision which is "disguising" its products via its resellers.
Others show U.S. monitoring and concern about China's expanding influence in other countries, noting that Jordan was feeling economic pressure from Beijing to include Chinese telecoms company Huawei in its switch to 5G technology, and Nicaragua negotiating with a Chinese company to build a deep-water port off its coast.
What other countries are discussed in the leaked documents?
Israel, Turkey, and South Korea appear in several of the documents.
One listed scenarios under which Israel might decide to provide lethal aid to Ukraine. At this point, Israel has provided nonlethal support, including humanitarian and financial aid, to Ukraine, but has stopped short of providing lethal aid. According to the leaked documents, the U.S. believes that this could change if Israel were to adopt a model similar to Turkey, but "under U.S. pressure." Turkey supplies weapons to Ukraine but still maintains a relationship with Moscow.
The document also predicts Israel would provide lethal assistance to Ukraine if Russia expanded its strategic assistance to Iran, if Israel requested increased support from the U.S. against Iran or if Russia struck Israeli forces in Syria.
Another document, apparently from the CIA, alleged that the Israeli Secret Intelligence Service (Mossad) leaders encouraged officials and Israeli citizens to join recent waves of protests against the current Israeli regime. In response, the Israeli government said in a statement that the assertion was "mendacious and without any foundation whatsoever."
Other documents described signals intelligence, that is, gathered by eavesdropping, on South Korean leadership. The entry detailed disagreement within South Korea's National Security Office on how to respond to U.S. requests to sell ammunition to Ukraine and a plan to sell ammunition directly to Poland to satisfy the United States' ultimate goal without causing controversy domestically. The South Korean government said these documents were "fabricated," without offering specifics.
On described a private Russian military firm and another group linked to the Wagner Group that attempted to train protesters in Turkey for eventual use in Moscow's ongoing efforts to destabilize Moldova.
What are the classification markings on the documents?
The trove of documents contains highly classified materials from multiple U.S. intelligence agencies, including the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), which specializes in military intelligence; the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), which is an all-source intelligence agency that specializes in human intelligence; the National Security Agency (NSA), which specializes in electronic surveillance and intercepts; the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) and National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), which focus on satellite and other overhead intelligence, and others.
In many cases, the leaked entries include finished, not raw intelligence, meaning intelligence officials and analysts have consolidated and contextualized the initial reports and intercepts that were collected.
There are a number of standard classification markings on the documents that indicate the origins of the material and how restricted it might be.
There are three tiers of classification: "Top Secret," "Secret" and "Confidential," all of which correspond to the potential damage that unauthorized disclosure of a given document may cause.
Among the markings on the documents are:
- (TS) – "Top Secret" information
- (S) – "Secret" information
- (C) – "Confidential" information
- (SCI) – Sensitive compartmented information
- (HCS) – HUMINT [human-source intelligence] Control System
- (SI) – Special Intelligence, which includes signals and communications intelligence
- (TK) – Talent Keyhole, which includes satellite and space-based imagery intelligence
- (FISA) – Includes electronic surveillance activities approved under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act
- (RSEN) – Risk Sensitive
- (FGI) – Foreign Government Information
- (NOFORN) – Not Releasable to Foreign Nationals
- (FVEY) – Five Eyes intelligence alliance including the U.S., U.K., Canada, Australia and New Zealand