For the first time in forever, preseason worries about the Patriots are very real
BOSTON -- Once upon a time, in a magical land known as Foxboro, there lived a football team so good, so dominant, so unstoppable, that those on the outside had to make mountains out of molehills every summer just so they'd have something to talk about. A trip to the AFC Championship Game for this team was a given every year; the only question was which side of the 50-50 coin flip they'd be on for the trip to the Super Bowl. Once getting to that Super Bowl, they'd go ahead and bring home that trophy more often than not.
Alas, those days are gone. And for the first time in basically forever, the concerns and worries surrounding Bill Belichick's team entering a season are very, very real.
The top line item on that list of Patriots uncertainties has obviously been the offensive operation. Losing Josh McDaniels (and Mick Lombardi, Bo Hardegree, and Carmen Bricillo) to the Raiders is not reason for panic in and of itself. The retirement of Ivan Fears is a loss that can be overcome. Only adding Joe Judge and Matt Patricia to the offensive coaching staff to make up for those losses, however, may well prove to be a shortsighted plan.
Despite the rosy words from Mac Jones, Judge and Patricia in recent days, it would be difficult for any reasonable observer to feel a strong sense of confidence in the function and fluidity of the offense heading into the season.
While preseason football has too many variables to make it a perfect comparison tool, look at the quarterback output from Jones last year and this.
In 2021, as a rookie competing with Cam Newton for the starting job, Jones completed 36 of 53 passes (67.9 percent) for 388 yards, averaging 7.3 yards per attempt. He had one passing touchdown and no interceptions, posting a passer rating of 97.3 and very much looking capable of handling starting duties in the NFL.
This summer, with a year of that experience under his belt, his preseason playing time naturally dipped quite a bit. Yet in his seven series on the field, he completed 13 of his 21 passes (61.9 percent) for 132 yards, averaging 6.3 yards per attempt. He didn't throw a touchdown (that wasn't called back for offensive pass interference) and had one interception (a bad one, too), posting a passer rating of 60.0. The Patriots went three-and-out in four of his seven drives, turned it over via interception on one, and had just two scoring drives for a total of 10 points.
A 60.0 passer rating would have made Mac Jones the worst starting quarterback in the NFL last season. Obviously -- obviously, obviously, obviously -- a passer rating from limited playing time in the preseason does not by itself portend doom. But when the number drops so drastically when it theoretically should actually be getting better, it's difficult to dismiss.
The team's top pick, guard Cole Strange, is being coached by Matt Patricia, who hasn't specifically coached offensive linemen since 2005. The offensive line as a whole has plenty of talented players, but their struggles to learn and execute some zone blocking schemes have been well-documented all summer long.
The quartet of Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Ty Montgomery and Pierre Strong Jr. combined to rush for 113 yards and one touchdown on 30 carries in the preseason, an average of just 3.77 yards per carry. Again, with the caveat of preseason stats being preseason stats, a 3.77-yard average per carry would have ranked fourth-worst in the NFL last year. While the team figures to have the talent and ability to be a lot better in the regular season, the fact that they couldn't ever dominate the second and third-teamers they were facing this summer has to register as a real worry.
To put it all a bit simply, the Patriots left themselves some room to improve on the offensive side of the ball.
But what about the defense?
For all of the consternation surrounding the offense, the defense probably has been overlooked.
It's a unit that came out of last year's bye week and gave up 27 points in a gotta-have-it game in Indianapolis. Though seven of those points came on special teams, the game was lost on defense when Jonathan Taylor ran directly through the middle of New England's defense for a 67-yard touchdown mere seconds after the Patriots had trimmed the lead to three points.
The next week, at home against the Bills, they couldn't force their opponent to punt one single time, allowing 33 points and 428 yards of offense against the top team in their division. The Bills went 6-for-12 on third down ... and 3-for-4 on fourth down. Though the Patriots did stifle the 27th-ranked Jaguars offense at Gillette Stadium in Week 17, they gave up 195 rushing yards in a 33-24 loss in Miami to end the regular season.
And surely everybody knows how the playoff game in Buffalo went.
In Bill Belichick's estimation, the fix has seemingly been in the front-seven, saying farewell to Dont'a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins from that group while adding Mack Wilson via trade and a pair of interior rookie defenders in Sam Roberts (sixth-round pick) and DaMarcus Mitchell (UDFA). Leaning on Ja'Whaun Bentley while opening doors for Raekwon McMillan and Jahlani Tavai appears to be the plan to fix the middle of the defense.
The secondary also lost J.C. Jackson, who was just voted as the 20th-best player and the second-best cornerback in the NFL by his fellow players. While Jackson's presence didn't help prevent those late-season drubbings, the Patriots losing a player of his caliber without finding a real replacement can't possibly make the team better.
Add in the mystery that is the defensive coordinator role, and there's certainly no guarantee that this year's defense is markedly improved from the unit that allowed 567 yards at home against the Cowboys and allowed an average of 455 yards per game in two losses to the Bills last year.
Is it possible that somehow, some way, Bill Belichick has concocted the perfect coaching staff for this team in this moment, that the fears and horror about Mac Jones' offense have been vastly overstated, that the doubters and critics will be made to look like fools for the umpteenth time? Sure.
Is it likely? Well ... no.
Yes, the Patriots are coming off a season in which they made the playoffs ... but they did so with a .394 strength of victory, far and away the worst number in the AFC and the second-worst among all 14 playoff teams. (The Philadelphia Eagles had a .350 strength of victory, and their postseason trip went similarly to New England's: a loss via rout on the road.) And by any objective measure, the team has largely gotten a bit worse across the board.
How this all manifests itself is anyone's guess. From being surprisingly competitive scrappers to being an uncomfortable debacle, everything is on the table. That really hasn't been the case in these parts in early September since ... 2001? (Yes, that season turned out just fine.)
At a certain point, hanging one's hat on last year's seven-game winning streak is no longer a sustainable source of optimism, nor is it a proper counter to the string of issues -- both quantifiable and otherwise -- that have been facing this team since January. And that point, if everything goes as it appears to be heading, could very well be coming sooner than later in New England.
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.