How Patriots' Loss To Dolphins Affects Playoff Situation For New England
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- Heading into Monday night, it was all so simple for the Patriots. Beat the mediocre Dolphins, then beat the Steelers, and waltz your way to the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Now, that road is not nearly as easy.
With a 27-20 stumble in Miami on Monday night, the Patriots fell to 10-3 on the season. That puts the whole game behind the Steelers, who sit at 11-2 heading into next weekend's clash in Pittsburgh.
All is not lost for the Patriots, of course. If they beat the Steelers on Sunday and win their final two games (at home against the Bills and Jets) to finish the year at 13-3, then they will secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That will be the case even if the Steelers finish with an identical 13-3 record (Pittsbugh will likely finish the season with wins in Week 16's trip to Houston and Week 17's home date with Cleveland), because the first tiebreaker will be the head-to-head result.
In that sense, the Patriots are in control of their situation. If they can shake off the ugly loss from Monday and go on to take care of business, then they'll be fine. They'll have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and they'll have the first-round bye.
However, even one slip-up between now and New Year's Eve, and the whole picture could change dramatically.
If the Patriots lose to the Steelers on Sunday, then they can kiss the No. 1 seed goodbye. Pittsburgh will have a two-game lead with two games to play, and Pittsburgh will own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
But if the Patriots lose on Sunday, or lose in either Week 16 or Week 17, then they might even lose the first-round bye.
That's because the Jacksonville Jaguars are red-hot right now, winners of six of their last seven games, which gives them a 9-4 record at the moment. If the Jaguars win their remaining three games -- vs. Houston, at San Francisco, at Tennessee -- then they will finish at 12-4. And if the Patriots lose to the Steelers, the best they can finish will also be 12-4.
At that point, the tiebreaker scenario goes to a team's record within the conference. And if the Patriots have losses to the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Steelers, that will be more losses within the AFC than the Jaguars, who have only lost within the conference to the Titans and Jets.
And so, it's not at all unreasonable to foresee a scenario where the Patriots find themselves hosting a game on wild-card weekend -- something they haven't had to do since the 2009 season. And we know how that season ended. And if the Patriots are to win in that wild-card round, they would then have to travel for the divisional round and (most likely) the conference championship in order to reach the Super Bowl. The Patriots are 3-4 in road playoff games since 2001, and they've lost their last three road playoff games (at Indianapolis in 2006, at Denver in 2013, at Denver in 2015).
This all could have been avoided if the Patriots had just played their best -- or even something resembling their best -- brand of football on Monday night. Instead, they have to be nearly perfect or hope for a Jaguars flop in the coming weeks in order to even secure a first-round bye.
As the Patriots head into Week 15 of the season, the stakes are as high as can be.
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.