Hurley: Patriots Would Be Wise To Place High Value On Martellus Bennett
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- With the glow of a Super Bowl victory starting to fade, it's nearing decision time for Martellus Bennett and the New England Patriots.
For both sides, it's a bit of a complicated situation.
First, there's Bennett. He'll turn 30 years old in a few weeks. He's already beaten the odds by lasting nine seasons in the NFL. As a second-round pick in 2008, he's made some decent money in his career. But right now, with the inflated value that comes with playing an important role on a championship team, Bennett has the opportunity to cash in with a big-money multi-year contract. It will likely be his final opportunity for such a deal.
From the Patriots' side, it's a bit more complex. In a vacuum, Bennett was a productive player. He caught 55 passes for 701 yards and seven touchdowns while playing in all 16 games despite an ankle injury. Among tight ends, he ranked 14th in receptions, ninth in receiving yards and he was tied for third in touchdowns. He was productive and important in the Patriots' No. 3-ranked scoring offense. And in the postseason, he caught 11 more passes for 98 yards.
He was valuable, no doubt. But putting a number on that production becomes quite difficult when you factor in the other side of the equation: Rob Gronkowski missed eight games and the entire postseason.
On the one hand, if Gronkowski had been healthy, then Bennett's numbers would not have been quite so high. On the other hand ... how often is Gronkowski healthy?
Gronkowski lasted through the 2014 and 2015 seasons, but that came after injury-plagued 2012 and 2013 seasons. Add in this past year, and add in a third back surgery for the soon-to-be-28-year-old, and it's fair to say that the Patriots would be unwise to enter any of the next three seasons without an insurance plan in place for a Gronkowksi injury.
What works to the Patriots' benefit in 2017 is that Gronkowski is cheap, carrying just a $6.75 million cap hit. From that perspective, the Patriots could make it worth Bennett's while to take a deal that might not be equal to what he'd get on the open market but is heavily front-loaded and does give him the opportunity to opt out or get released next year in order to make that final free agent cash-in.
The reason the Patriots likely can't extend themselves with a long-term deal for Bennett is that Gronkowski's cap hit jumps to $11 million in 2018 and $12 million in 2019. And the Patriots won't want to dedicate $18 million or so in cap space to two tight ends.
Of course, there remains the possibility that the Patriots have the difficult conversation of imagining what life without Gronkowski might be like. While cutting ties with one of the most dynamic talents in the game may seem like a preposterous idea on the surface, it's hard to argue with results. And the Patriots just went 10-0 following Gronkowski's injury and won the Super Bowl. They showed they can live without him, if needed.
That being said, if the Patriots do believe they might be better off without Gronkowski, then Bennett in years 10, 11 and 12 of his NFL career may not make the most sense as a replacement. If they want to plan for post-Gronkowski life, then you may see them make a move along the lines of drafting the injured Jake Butt out of Michigan with the intention of bringing him along slowly to learn alongside No. 87 for a couple of years.
But, in Bennett's case, the Patriots should make a fair offer for at least the 2017 season. After making a tick over $5 million last year, the Patriots could offer Bennett a decent bump -- say, $6.75 million, to match Gronkowski? -- in the short term. The franchise tag remains a possibility, but at more than $9 million, that might be too pricey for the Patriots, even if just for one year.
And Bennett may see the value in sticking around with New England for another year instead of going the mercenary route and playing for a losing franchise that offers more money.
"When you're winning, it's like you're even more awesome," Bennett said prior to the Super Bowl. "Everybody wants to be associated with winners. When you try to get endorsements, it's easier when you're with a winning team, because every company wants to associate with winners. They don't do commercials like, 'We've got the five-time non-playoff guy on the TV screen, but he's great! You should wear the shoes that he's wearing!' They don't do that, you know? 'Oh, go eat what he eats. He's definitely a loser!' Everybody wants to push winners, because winners sell better. So I think there is something to be said about that."
And while the Patriots and Bill Belichick are not the most sentimental crew, they no doubt saw Bennett's value in the play that set up the Super Bowl victory in Houston.
It came on a first-and-10 from the Falcons' 15-yard line on the one and only drive of overtime. Now, realistically, the Patriots were probably going to find the end zone on this drive whether or not Bennett was on the field. But we can only deal with reality, which showed Bennett lining up in the right slot, with James White motioning out wide to his right. The Falcons' defense, in its infinite wisdom, decided to crowd the line of scrimmage in man coverage, leaving just a single high safety (Ricardo Allen) over the top to play center field.
Tom Brady stood in the shotgun, saw this defense, noticed the safety favoring the offensive left side of the field, and knew in that moment that the game was over. There was just no way that linebacker De'Vondre Campbell was going to be able to cover the bigger Bennett in man coverage. And if Allen waited so much as a half-second before breaking across the field to Bennett, then there'd be no way he could play a role in making a play on the ball.
Prior to the snap, Brady signaled to Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan on the left side of the formation, but the quarterback knew he was never even going to look that way with the intention of actually throwing to either receiver. Instead, he looked left to keep Allen frozen in the middle of the field for a split-second:
Brady then calmly lobbed a ball to the goal line, knowing that Allen could not get there and that Campbell was not big enough or talented enough to make a play on the ball.
Brady knew that it was either going to be a touchdown or a pass interference penalty. It turned out to be the latter. And with the ball spotted at the 2-yard line, the game was all but over.
It was somewhat reminiscent of the confidence Eli Manning had in Plaxico Burress when seeing him lined up man-to-man with Ellis Hobbs back in Super Bowl XLII. In both instances, the quarterback knew before the snap with a strong degree of certainty that a very successful play was coming.
Again, if Bennett was watching on TV instead of lined up in the slot, would the Patriots have found their way into the end zone on that drive when Tom Brady was a man possessed? Probably. But the fact is, in the most crucial moment of the season, Brady was looking to Bennett. That speaks volumes to how valuable the veteran tight end was to the 2016 Patriots. (Brady went back to Bennett on the following play in what was perhaps slightly ill-advised but also perhaps indicative of wanting to reward Bennett for getting the Patriots to the goal line. It fell incomplete, and White rushed in the game-winning touchdown on the following play.)
He also caught five passes for 62 yards in the game. It wasn't quite a Rob Gronkowski type of impact, but it was close. (No. 87 caught six passes for 68 yards and a touchdown in the Patriots' Super Bowl XLIX victory over Seattle.)
It's without a doubt a complex situation from both sides. But the Patriots would be wise to do what they can to extend themselves in the short term for Bennett, both for the Gronkowski insurance and for what Bennett brings in his own right.
For Bennett, the advantages of staying in New England for less money than he'd make on the open market are decidedly harder to find, save for the ancillary benefits of playing for a winner in a high-profile market.
"It's like, what is your motive right now? What are you doing? Is it championships or is it a place where you can build your legacy to do things after football?" Bennett said in Houston. "Like, hey, this is where I want to build — I mean, I'll probably retire in four years, so is this where I want to live in four years? Should I do that in Jacksonville? Probably not. So it's jut kind of like, just a bunch of things, families, schools, there's so much [stuff] that goes into it. It's crazy. It's tough."
With his own business already up and running, there are benefits for Bennett to align himself with Boston for longer than one season. It is indeed tough, but it's not impossible for the Patriots to make it work for one more year.
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.