What's a realistic win total for the 2024 New England Patriots?
FOXBORO -- The Patriots begin a new era this season with Jerod Mayo taking over for Bill Belichick at head coach. Mayo is inheriting a team that has a severe lack of talent on offense, and is coming off a four-win season in 2023.
Will the Patriots surpass that win total this year? Will they at least match it? Or could 2024 be, dare we say, worse than Belichick's last season on the sideline?
It seems like the latter two are much more likely for the Patriots, given the state of the offensive line and the offense in general. The defense is expected to be solid again, but there is only so much a defense can do when an offense doesn't put up points. There are still some serious questions about New England's ability to do that, whether it's Jacoby Brissett or rookie Drake Maye under center.
But Mayo has said a number of times since taking over as head coach that the success of the team in 2024 will not be measured by wins, but in the progress the team shows on the football field. He's hoping to have a squad that looks like a winning football team by season's end, even if the win total doesn't reflect as much.
What a difference a regime makes. Success used to be measured in banners, but we are a long ways off from those days returning to New England.
But keep in mind that this is the first year of a rebuild, one that will likely take at least a few years to have the Patriots back in NFL relevancy and playoff contention. A quick and sudden rise of Drake Maye could expedite the process, but we are likely in for a few more years of ... let's say, rough football.
Patriots 2024 season schedule
The Patriots have a "last-place" schedule after their 4-13 campaign in 2023, but this is in no way a "last-place" schedule. CBS Sports has New England's schedule ranked as the eighth-hardest in the NFL. The Patriots are not favored in any of their 17 games in 2024.
The first four weeks of the 2024 schedule are absolutely brutal, with three of New England's first three games on the road. That includes a trip to New Jersey to play the Jets on Thursday Night Football, followed by a trip across country to face the 49ers in San Francisco. The Patriots could be staring at an 0-4 record heading into October.
Two straight home games follow, against the Dolphins and the Texans, and maybe the Pats can steal one of those at Gillette Stadium. It's unlikely though, so a winless Patriots team might head to London for a showdown with the Jaguars across the pond in Week 7.
Winnable games against the Titans and the Bears come in Weeks 8 and 9, but both are on the road. After a visit from the Rams, we'll see if Mayo can end a four-game losing streak for the Patriots in Hard Rock Stadium, who haven't beat the Dolphins in Miami since Tom Brady was the quarterback.
The Pats get a late bye week, before hitting the road for games against the Cardinals and the Bills. Maybe the Patriots can beat the Cardinals, and who knows what the Bills will look like that late in the season. New England then closes out the season with two straight home games against the Chargers and the Bills.
Week 1 @ Bengals
Week 2 vs. Seahawks
Week 3 @ NY Jets (Thursday Night Football)
Week 4 @ 49ers
Week 5 vs. Dolphins
Week 6 vs. Texans
Week 7 vs. Jaguars (in London)
Week 8 @ Titans
Week 9 @ Bears
Week 10 vs. Rams
Week 11 @ Dolphins
Week 12 vs. Colts
Week 13: BYE WEEK
Week 14 @ Cardinals
Week 15 @Bills
Week 16 vs. Chargers
Week 17 vs. Bills
What's a realistic win total for the 2024 New England Patriots?
Four wins feels about right. Even teams trying to lose games end up with a random win or two. But where are those four Patriots wins coming from this season?
They each carry a strong "maybe," but the Patriots could maybe beat the Jaguars, the Titans, the Cardinals, and potentially steal one of their six games against the AFC East. Outside of that, the Pats are going to have to stun someone to get to four wins.
Is that acceptable in these parts? Not usually. But not all four-win teams are created equal. If the Patriots lose games on their own with horrible interceptions and foolish penalties, then that is unacceptable and Mayo and Company will feel the heat every Monday. But if they put up a fight each week and lose because the talent discrepancy is so large, well that is still unacceptable (for the front office) but a little easier to stomach.
What's the most optimistic win total for the Patriots?
Most sports books are setting the Patriots' over/under for wins at 4.5. If everything goes right for New England and a lot goes wrong for the opposition every weekend, maybe New England can flirt with seven wins. But that will require a lot of breaks to go the Patriots' way throughout the year.
That being said, stealing a Week 1 win against the Bengals in Joe Burrow's first game back from last season's wrist injury, with the status of star receiver Ja'Marr Chase's in doubt, would be a great first step in exceeding everyone's expectations. That probably won't happen, but crazier things have occurred in Week 1 of an NFL season.
Could the Patriots beat the franchise record for losses in a season?
The franchise record for loses in a season is 15, set back in 1990 by the Rod Rust-led Patriots. With 17 games on the schedule, the Patriots could potentially beat that loss total in 2024.
It's unlikely, since only five teams have gone winless in the NFL since 1960. Even the worst of the worst tend to back into at least one or two wins in a given season. But until the Patriots rack up three wins, it will be on the table.
It's not the franchise record they'd want to own, but the silver lining is it would likely secure New England the top pick in next year's draft and give the team a great avenue toward building out the offensive line.
What's a successful season on Jerod Mayo's eyes?
"A successful season is going out there, being competitive each and every game, and getting better as the year progresses," Mayo said Tuesday during an appearance on WEEI. "That's how I look at it."
Honestly, after watching Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe throw back-breaking interception after back-breaking interception throughout last season, we'd take a competitive team that shows progress every week.