The Biggest Mismatch In Patriots - Broncos: Bill Belichick Vs. Gary Kubiak And Wade Phillips
By Matt Dolloff (@mattdolloff)
BOSTON (CBS) -- The New England Patriots face their biggest test of the season on Sunday night, as they head to Denver for a showdown with the Broncos. With a banged up offensive line that struggled to protect Tom Brady - and a receiver corps that couldn't get open - against the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football, the Patriots have an even bigger challenge against the ferocious Denver defensive front. On paper, the Pats' O-line is severely overmatched.
But the biggest mismatch in the game isn't even on the field. It's on the sidelines.
Bill Belichick has had great recent success scheming against Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, winning his last three matchups against the duo when they both coached the Houston Texans. Patriots Nation fondly remembers the Texans' infamous letterman's jacket game, when a cocky Texans defense strutted into Gillette Stadium expecting to vanquish the beasts of Foxboro, only to get steamrolled - twice.
You could come up with several arguments why Kubiak and Phillips have a good chance to win Sunday night, and make no mistake, they do. The argument would go something like this: "Well, they're at home at a notoriously tough stadium to play, they have an elite defense, Phillips can scheme a pass rush with the best of them, and the Patriots are battling tons of injuries to key players."
But the pro-Belichick argument typically goes like this: "But...It's Gary Kubiak and Wade Phillips."
SEE ALSO: The Patriots Can't Beat The Broncos On Offense…But That's A Good Thing
While the duo has had some good games against the Patriots, Kubiak and Phillips haven't fared well in recent years. In the letterman's jacket game on Monday Night Football, Phillips' vaunted defense, led by J.J. Watt in the midst of a monster breakout season, had a handful of good series but ultimately couldn't keep up with the Patriots' adjustments on offense. Looking at a defense geared up to stop the Patriots passing attack on the opening drive, Brady took what the defense gave him and handed off to Stevan Ridley as they rumbled all the way down the field for a touchdown.
What happened after Phillips adjusted the defense to stop the run? Brady literally threw the ball all the way down the field. Brady was 4-of-5 passing for all 82 yards, capping the drive with a 37-yard touchdown to Brandon Lloyd.
Despite a lot of impressive drives that game, perhaps most striking was the Patriots' fourth-quarter drive up 35-7. The Patriots obviously wanted to run the ball to chew clock, the Texans obviously knew it was coming, and Phillips' defense still couldn't stop them. The Patriots hung 42 on the Texans while neutralizing Watt and the Houston pass rush in the process, holding them to just one sack. History repeated itself in the 2012 Divisional round game, which the Patriots won 41-28.
What about Kubiak's game management as head coach? His last meeting against the Patriots in 2013 at Reliant Stadium in Houston was perhaps his career-best performance against New England, but he still couldn't get his team to hold on for the win. Kubiak is known as a run-first coach, and too often has fallen back on his zone blocking scheme - even late in games or in obvious passing situations.
His Texans built a 17-7 lead in that game and actually threw the ball well to keep pace. But when the Patriots finally came back to take a 34-31 lead late in the fourth quarter, Kubiak reverted. With a chance to drive into field goal range on their last-chance possession, Kubiak decided to run the ball on first and 10 from their own 45 with Ben Tate, who was tackled for a 2-yard loss. Three incompletions later, whatever momentum the Texans could have had was erased and the Patriots ran out the clock to escape with the comeback win.
Going back to the letterman's jacket game, Kubiak didn't have his best effort that night either. What did he call on the first Texans drive of the third quarter, with the Pats up 21-0 and a good chance for Houston to get back into the game? Run, run, short pass, punt. What did he do with the Texans down 35-7? Four straight running plays and a punt. What did he do with the Texans down 42-7? Run, run, catch for -4 yards, run, punt. The game may have been well in hand at that time, but Kubiak couldn't have given up more egregiously in this case.
Kubiak may have finally figured out last season as Ravens offensive coordinator that he needs to throw the ball to beat the Patriots, when he had Joe Flacco air it out in the 2014 Divisional round - or maybe that's just what John Harbaugh told him. Kubiak's style as a head coach has mostly been too conservative and predictable to keep up with the Patriots, and if he insists on establishing the run on Sunday night he could have trouble pulling it off against the Patriots' No. 2-ranked run defense (based on rushing yards allowed per game). There's a good possibility that Belichick will sell out to stop the run and force the Broncos to beat them through the air with Brock Osweiler, which Kubiak probably does not want to do.
As for Phillips' defense? This is arguably the most talented, aggressive group he's ever had as a defensive coordinator. They have been by far the biggest reason for the Broncos' 7-2 record, keeping games close while Peyton Manning's (and now, Osweiler's) offense has mostly struggled to score.
What's Different This Time?
The Patriots' depleted, disjointed offensive line will certainly have their hands full with Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, Danny Trevathan, Brandon Marshall, and the rest of the Broncos front seven. Brady will likely have a lot of pressure on him throughout the game, and it will also be hard to throw into the Broncos secondary with former Patriot Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, and T.J. Ward manning the defensive backfield. The game certainly has the makings of a defensive struggle.
This is also the first time the Patriots have traveled to Denver on a short week in the Brady-Belichick era. And including the postseason, they are 2-5 at Mile High. If they want to win Sunday night, they will need to reverse a disturbing trend in uncharted territory with a depleted offense against the league's best defense.
But if the game remains close as the clock winds down, the coaching advantage for the Patriots will grow as the seconds tick away. Kubiak can be relied upon to stick to his conservative approach, while Belichick is practically a lock to have his team more situationally prepared for all of the tricky spots at the end of the game. The Patriots could very well lose, and they have done more of that in Denver than anywhere else - but they will not be outcoached. If the Patriots come up short, it will likely be a result of Brady's inability to distribute the ball behind a porous offensive line and alarming lack of weapons. It would be a mismatch in talent, not scheme.
The Broncos have a great chance to win Sunday night, but if they do, it won't be because of the coaches. The Patriots have already won that battle.
Matt Dolloff is a writer for CBSBostonSports.com. His opinions do not necessarily reflect that of CBS or 98.5 The Sports Hub. Read more from Matt here. Follow him on Twitter @mattdolloff and email him at mdolloff@985thesportshub.com.