What to watch for: Do Patriots stand a chance against the Bills?

BOSTON -- Thanksgiving has come and gone, which means things are about to get real in the NFL. For the Patriots, that means a difficult six-game stretch that begins with a Thursday night showdown with the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium.

The Patriots will see the Bills twice over the next six weeks, including their final game of the regular season in Buffalo. Given how the last two meetings between the teams went, with the Bills outscoring the Patriots 80-38 and not punting a single flippin' time, that does not bode well for New England.

But while the Bills entered the season as Super Bowl favorites, they seem vulnerable at the moment. Buffalo has won two straight, but barely escaped with wins over the Browns and the Lions, with both games being played in Detroit. Josh Allen is still a superhuman, but he's been extremely turnover-prone as of late. And the Buffalo defense, once one of the most vaunted units in the NFL, has been pretty pedestrian for nearly two months.

The New England offense didn't do much in the fourth quarter in last week's loss in Minnesota, but that was its best performance of the season and something it can build off of. The defense, meanwhile, will be looking to bounce back after it put little pressure on Kirk Cousins and let Justin Jefferson torch them for most of Thanksgiving night.

If the Patriots want to be a playoff team, they're going to have to beat some teams they aren't supposed to beat. Winning Thursday night would be one of those "big boy" wins the team desperately needs to solidify themselves as a postseason contender. But they're going to have to be near-perfect, and the Patriots know that.

Here's what we'll be watching for when the Pats and the Bills kick off Week 13 on Thursday night.

More progress from the offense

For large stretches of Thanksgiving night, the Patriots looked like a legitimate NFL offense. They're going to need a lot more of that Thursday evening.

Mac Jones had his best game of the season against the Vikings, who don't possess a very good passing defense, as he threw for a career-high 382 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The biggest part of his game was that he didn't turn the ball over for the third straight game. A turnover-free game Thursday night will go a long way in beating the Bills.

For one, the Bills don't need any help with free possessions. And the Patriots keeping the ball for themselves means they are keeping the ball away from Buffalo. It will help them control the clock and limit how many times and for how long the Bills possess the football. 

Ball security and lengthy, sustained drives by your offense is part of the blueprint to beating Buffalo. It would also help to convert on third down.

Unfortunately, the Patriots have not been doing any of that with any consistency this season. Now would be a great time to start. They are not going to outscore the Bills if Buffalo is allowed to march down the field every possession, so limiting the number of times they touch the ball is key.

And if the Bills do return to form and drop a 50 burger on the New England defense, then it would be nice to see the Patriots offense put up some points too. Any progress from the offense is a positive development at this point.

Can New England's defense force turnovers?

The Patriots have been forcing turnovers, but they have also been playing against some pretty bad quarterbacks -- including two matchups with Zach Wilson over the last four games. When they've played against capable-to-good quarterbacks this season, they've lost.

Allen is the best quarterback they'll face this season, and he's capable of scoring anywhere on the field and beating teams in a number of ways. He can do it with his cannon arm thanks to weapons like Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and Isaiah McKenzie. He can do it with his legs, which we'll touch on in a minute.

His kryptonite, and what has been Buffalo's biggest weakness this season, has been turnovers. Allen loves to go hunting for big plays, which can lead to a lot of points on the board in a short amount of time for the Bills. But it can also be costly, as Buffalo has turned it over 19 times this season, with Allen leading the league with 11 interceptions. They've mitigated those giveaways with their ability to score in a hurry, but it's the kind of thing that a team can outrun for only so long.

The Patriots have generated most of their turnovers with their pass rush. With the likes of Matthew Judon and Deatrich Wise getting into the backfield and making quarterbacks make quick decisions and force throws, the secondary has come down with 12 picks on the season. The defense was getting good pressure on Cousins last week, until it wasn't, and that's when the Vikings were able to open things up in the second half.

Buffalo will be without starting left tackle Dion Dawkins, so getting pressure on Allen is a huge key to a Patriots win on Thursday night.

Keeping Allen from running wild

That pressure could also come at a cost, though. The Patriots cannot let Allen get going on the ground, an aspect of his game that can wreck a defense's plan real fast. The Patriots have had very little success at keeping him -- or any running quarterback for that matter -- in check on the ground.

Simply put, Allen is just a beast. He's capable of running over anyone the defense throws at him. If the secondary does their job and keeps Allen's downfield targets at bay -- a really, really, really big if -- the Patriots can't let Allen make something out of nothing with his legs. 

The Patriots defense knows the challenge that lies ahead. Bill Belichick made it clear that it's going to take "team defense" to limit Buffalo's scoring. The New England D has been solid throughout the season, but it's going to have to play its best game on Thursday, and they're going to have to be very multi-dimensional to pull it off.

Seeing red

It's no secret that the Patriots offense is not good in the red zone. In a nutshell, they stink as soon as they reach an opponent's 20-yard line, scoring touchdowns on just 38.7 percent of their trips inside the red area. That's led to a big season for Nick Folk, but a disappointing campaign for Mac and Company overall.

Only the Denver Broncos are worse in the red zone. Even the Houston Texans are better than the Patriots inside the 20. That is not the company that a team hoping to make the playoffs wants to keep. If the Patriots are able to drive down the field, they cannot settle for field goals and expect to beat the Bills.

But while the Patriots have been bad, the Bills have also had their share of struggles in the red area. They're scoring touchdowns on only 54 percent of their trips in the red zone, which ranks 19th in the NFL. And that's where those turnovers have reared their ugly head as of late, with Allen throwing four red zone interceptions over the last five games. 

That's not to say this will become a battle of kickers. We should still see plenty of touchdowns, and most times, the Bills don't even need a trip to the red zone to score touchdowns.

But don't immediately throw up the white flag if the Bills march down the field. Buffalo doesn't have many weaknesses, but lining up inside the 20 has been one of them.

WBZ-TV gets you ready for Thursday night's Patriots-Bills clash starting at 7 p.m. Wednesday night with Patriots All Access! Coverage continues that evening at 9:30 p.m. with Patriots 1st Down on TV38, and we'll bring you a special Thursday night edition of Patriots GameDay on WBZ-TV at 7 p.m. After the Patriots and the Bills are done at Gillette Stadium, switch over to TV38 for full reaction and analysis on Patriots 5th Quarter!