What to watch for when the Patriots visit the Bills in Week 17

FOXBORO -- The Buffalo Bills are playing to secure their spot in the NFL playoffs over the final weeks of the regular season. The New England Patriots are not.

But one thing is clear for the 4-11 Patriots: The team has not quit. They have not quit on Bill Belichick and they have not quit on trying to win football games. And they certainly won't quit with a chance to play spoiler against their AFC East foe.

One of New England's four wins came against the Bills in Week 7, when Mac Jones had his career moment and hit Mike Gesicki for a game-winning touchdown with 12 seconds left. Things have obviously gone a bit sideways after that lovely October Sunday in Foxboro, with the Pats losing five straight and Bailey Zappe taking over at QB. 

But winners of two of their last three, the Patriots are looking to beat the Bills again. Here's what we'll be watching for when the game kicks off in Orchard Park.

Josh Allen's bakery

Josh Allen is really good. Bill Belichick even compared his development to Tom Brady's earlier this week, pointing out that Brady really hit his stride in his third season and never looked back. Allen has followed a similar path, though he's got a loooooong way to go to reach Brady status.

"Once those quarterbacks, usually when they get to that point, they're able to sustain it. Sometimes you just don't know what the growth pattern is going to be. It doesn't really matter where he was or where he is right now. He's pretty good. Real good," Belichick said of Allen.

Mind games from Bill? Perhaps. But Allen is good, and he's reinserted himself in the MVP talk with some strong play of late. 

However, Allen's biggest foe is usually himself and the turnovers that he commits. Most of them come off plays that Allen shouldn't be trying to make.

Allen has thrown an interception in all but three games this season. His first pass against the Pats in Week 7 was picked off by Jabrill Peppers after Allen telegraphed his throw to Dawson Knox. That pick turned into a New England touchdown, and Allen also fumbled on the final play of the game to seal New England's 29-25 victory. 

This isn't really anything new for Allen. In his 10 games against the Patriots, he's thrown eight interceptions and lost three fumbles. It's a big reason why he's just 5-5 against the Patriots.

This season, Allen has 15 interceptions in 15 games, the second-most in the NFL behind the now-benched Sam Howell. He's also lost three fumbles, tied for the third-most in the NFL.

The Pats have forced five turnovers over the last three games. If they continue to put pressure on Allen -- whom they blitzed on nearly half his dropbacks in Week 7 -- the quarterback should give them a few chances to add to that total on Sunday.

Strength vs. Strength

The Buffalo offense does a lot of damage through the air thanks to Allen's cannon of an arm. But he can move his legs too, as can running back James Cook, who has already surpassed the 1,000-yard mark on the ground in his second NFL season. Cook's emergence has given Buffalo a top 10 rushing attack in the NFL this season. He runs everywhere on the field, so everyone on New England's defensive front is going to have to be ready on Sunday.

The Bills are averaging 130.5 rushing yards per game, which is seventh-best in the league. They're averaging 4.5 yards per carry, racking up 1,957 on their 439 rushing attempts, and have run for the most first downs this season at 137. They're not an easy bunch to stop or bring down.

But the New England rush defense is the best in the business. Teams are averaging a minuscule 3.2 yards per carry, and just 84.8 rushing yards per game. The Pats have let opponents run for just 81 first downs, tied for the third-fewest in the league. 

The Pats were able to hold Cook to just 56 yards on his 13 carries in Week 7, and 20 of those yards came on one rush. He did catch three passes for 46 yards and a touchdown, so he wasn't completely shut down, but the Pats made it tough for him to run.

If they can do that again this weekend, they'll have a chance at pulling off another upset.

Zappe's connection with Parker

The Patriots should try to control the clock as much as possible and keep Allen and company off the field. A solid rush attack from Ezekiel Elliott and Zappe connecting on short passes will help New England's cause on that front.

But if we're being realistic, the Bills are probably going to score some points on Sunday. And if the Pats find themselves in a hole, they're going to have to take some shots downfield. When that happens, Zappe should keep feeding it to DeVante Parker.

Parker has not lived up to the hype since he arrived in New England two years ago, and he has done little to justify the three-year extension he received over the summer. But he remains the team's best outside threat, and he's been winning those downfield battles as of late. His massive 27-yard catch on third down late last week helped set up the team's game-winning kick against Denver, and he's had at least one catch of 20 or more yards in each of the last three games.

The Buffalo defense will have to give Parker attention on Sunday, and Zappe should continue to look his way.

Watch that scoreboard

Remember when we'd watch the scoreboard late in the season to see how it would affect New England's playoff seeding. Good times, good times.

Now, we'll be keeping an eye on how Sunday's results play into New England's draft pick. The Pats are currently slotted into the fourth overall pick, and losing out would guarantee a pick in the top four. But with three five-win teams behind them, New England could fall as far as ninth overall over the next two weeks. 

If you're all aboard the tank train, the best-case scenario for the Patriots is to lose out and have the Commanders win one of their last two games. That's a bit of a longshot, with Washington hosting the 49ers at 1 p.m. on Sunday before welcoming in the Cowboys in Week 18. New England fans will be rooting for Jacoby Brissett and the Commanders on Sunday. (Update: 30 seconds after publishing this post, Brissett was added to Washington's injury report.)

If the Commanders win a game and the Pats lose to the Bills and the Jets, New England will be in the top three and potentially land a top-two pick in April. But the Commanders are in a tailspin, losing six straight, and probably won't be beating two of the best teams in the NFC.

The Pats could also use a win by the 3-12 Cardinals, but they're visiting the 11-4 Eagles. So let's just move on from that one.

At least if the 6-9 Bears beat the Falcons on Sunday, the Pats will fall no lower than a top-seven pick. But there is still a lot to figure out on the draft board, and we haven't even touched on Strength of Schedule.

In a nutshell, if you want the best pick possible, you're hoping for a Patriots loss and a Commanders win this weekend.