Hurley's Picks: Raiders Revolution Is Afoot, Though Beware Of More Ties In NFL
BOSTON (CBS) -- Not all conspiracy theories are alike. Some are better than others.
And this week, while myself being an award-winning listener of the popular podcast known as "Pardon My Take," I have to admit that I was rather impressed by the latest NFL conspiracy.
I'll let Dan Katz, better known as Big Cat, explain:
I've been working really hard on this. I've done some investigations.
So we've had two ties in the NFL. We almost had three. We've had two ties for the first time since 1997, right? The NFL also has a little image problem. Can we all admit that? Can we all say that's fair? Ratings down, image problem, probably gotta fix something, OK.
Ties. You know what Roger Goodell's gonna do? He's going to change a rule so there can't be anymore ties. It's a simple, simple rule change, and here's how I stumbled upon this.
(Dramatic pause.)
These teams are tying on purpose. Roger Goodell has the kickers in his back pocket, OK? The Seahawks-Cardinals game on [Sunday] night, there were two missed field goals in overtime of 30 yards or less. Kickers are hitting at 94 percent on the season on 30 yards or less. OK? There's been five missed field goals on the entire season of 30 yards or less, and two of them happened in the same game? You're going to tell me that? Two of them?
The Redskins-Bengals game -- sorry, the R-Words-Bengals game -- kickers are kicking 93 percent field goals from 40 yards or less ... huh, another one -- missed, so that the game could end in a tie.
Are you in yet? If not, here's more:
And so here's where it all started to connect, OK? Bucs-Raiders game did not end in a tie ... but Sebastian Janikowski, arguably one of the best kickers in NFL history, missed two field goals in that game. Two. And the game didn't end in a tie, why? Because there was a touchdown. So Roger Goodell doesn't have the position players in his back pocket, but he's got those kickers.
I'm just saying, I wouldn't be shocked if there's another tie this year, another missed field goal that's pretty easy to hit, and then, oh, you know, around the Super Bowl time, Roger Goodell does his press conference and says, 'Hey listen, guys, we're changing the overtime rules. We're going to do college overtime now. No ties."
Boom. The NFL's back.
I'm just saying, listen. I'm just connecting a few dots. The NFL has an image problem. Everyone's saying Roger Goodell has to do something. He's going to fix the ties.
When you listen to Pardon My Take, you never know what's honest and what's satire. But after some exhaustive research, I can confirm that this theory checks out.
For starters, just look at the dreadful missed kicks in the Seahawks-Cardinals game.
OK, so maybe it would actually be very difficult to have your kick take a sharp left turn on a 24-yard field goal and hit flush off the goalpost. Maybe. But did you see Steven Hauschka's sorry attempt at a kick? That looked like the kick from the drunk guy they pull out of the stands at halftime for a chance to win $10,000. It looked like he kicked with the wrong leg.
Then watch this one from last week in London. A particularly aware YouTube user is all over the conspiracy already, as you can tell by the title:
Now watch Janikowski's game-winning attempt at the end of regulation -- never had a chance. His OT kick was equally as bad.
It makes you wonder just how deep this rabbit hole runs. Did Goodell force Stephen Gostkowski to miss that PAT in Denver, thus giving Peyton Manning a clear path to a second Super Bowl? What does Goodell have on Blair Walsh, for that matter? And even though Goodell was a lower-level NFL assistant back in 1991 ... you now have to wonder what he did to Scott Norwood.
OK, that may be taking a bit too far and also has nothing to do with the idea of increasing ties. But the idea -- while actually insane -- can be justified when you look at the commissioner's history. He's proven to be willing to create arguably the biggest scandal in sports of the past few decades over an alleged offense that at worst could have involved a subtle release of a little air from footballs. He spent millions upon millions of dollars to take down Tom Brady and fight him for two years in court just so that people would forget how badly the commissioner tried to sweep a case of domestic violence under the rug and got caught red-handed.
Goodell eventually won that battle with Brady ... and then proceeded to repeat the same anti-human mistakes with regard to a player arrested for domestic violence. The man needs another W.
And frankly, with ratings tumbling, with the Chicago Bears littering prime-time games, and with sponsors likely starting to make some calls to put the pressure on the league, Goodell's checkbook is likely a little bit tighter this time around. He can't afford Ted Wells and Exponent and Paul Clement, but he can afford kickers.
It makes even more sense when you remember that the NHL switched to 3-on-3 overtime last year and actually created some buzz. Folks jumped on Twitter to alert the world that they needed to tune in to a 3-on-3 OT period whenever one was occurring. People were actually giving the NHL credit for doing something good! That literally never happens.
You know that had to rub Roger the wrong way, and so this devious plan was hatched.
He's changed overtime rules before, and he can change them again. Maybe it won't be the college OT system, but you can bet it will be very bad. But because it's new and fun and exciting, everyone will love it.
But he can't do it until the public reaches a fever pitch on the sudden scourge of ties terrorizing NFL fans.
Keep an eye out for those ties, people. Those kickers can't be trusted.
Anyway, here are some PICKS!
(Home team in CAPS; Thursday lines)
Pittsburgh (+2.5) over BALTIMORE
The Ravens really stink.
KANSAS CITY (-7) over Jacksonville
The Jaguars, lately, have struggled to even be able to compete. More often that not, that is problematic.
(Those Color Rush jerseys were gorgeous, though. Totes gorge.)
MIAMI (-3.5) over New York Jets
This may be a rather difficult game to watch. (I will watch every second and love it.)
Dallas (-7) over CLEVELAND
There's an interesting dynamic going on with the Cowboys, and it has nothing to do with the actual quarterback controversy itself so much as it does the perception of Jerry Jones' team with a different person under center. Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but are the Cowboys not a much more likeable team around the country now with Dak Prescott running the show? Again this is just a feeling I'm getting, but I feel like there is less visceral hate and more legitimate excitement to watch the Cowboys this season.
I've always liked Tony Romo, but I've felt like I've lived in a very small segment of the population with such a controversial view. But Prescott + Zeke + Dez = people might actually like the Cowboys again. I think.
MINNESOTA (-6) over Detroit
How the Vikings respond to getting thumped by the Bears on Monday Night Football will dictate how their 2016 season goes. I mean it.
Philadelphia (+2.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Speaking of kickers ... remember when the New York Giants organization, owner John Mara, GM Jerry Reese, head coach Ben McAdoo and even more people absolutely ruined their reputations as humans so that they could cover for their kicker, who admitted to treating women like his slaves?
Anyway, you should read this story by Annie Apple. It's tremendous -- not just the thoughts on domestic violence, but also the issues she took with the awful system that is NCAA sports. And then share in the joy of the Giants losing on Sunday.
SAN DIEGO (-4) over Tennessee
I'm starting to think that this week's slate of football games is not very good, folks. I'm going to seek a second source to try to confirm this information.
Carolina (-3) over LOS ANGELES
Yup, confirmed.
As for this game, the Carolina Panthers are back in business. They right on path to lose another soul-crushing postseason game this year, as is the franchise's custom.
New Orleans (-4) over SAN FRANCISCO
Chip Kelly's high-flying innovative offense ranks 32nd in yards per game and 22nd in scoring. I have to admit, having a terrible offense is a truly innovative way to have a potent offense. I had never considered that to be an option, but I'm no Chip Kelly.
GREEN BAY (-7.5) over Indianapolis
As an NFL fan, you should be thankful for the existence of the Colts. In all the years Peyton Manning has not been the president/CEO/GM/head coach, they've been pretty bad, but in a humorous way. For that, we should all be thankful.
OAKLAND (-1) over Denver
A revolution is afoot in the AFC West. I don't know that the Raiders are quite ready to win the division, but they are ready to beat the Broncos in Oakland.
This should be a legitimate prime-time game, one that when combined with the end of the World Series, will likely lead to a much-needed ratings boost for the league. If this one doesn't draw eyeballs, then the league might have a real problem.
SEATTLE (-6.5) over Buffalo
It's hard to pick the Bills when their head coach walked to the podium after losing last week and said his team had no chance to win the division. That's just problematic. But it's equally challenging to pick a team that only scores more than the Rams, Texans and Bears.
That Seahawks offense is a problem. But it has put up points at times this year. And until LeSean McCoy is back and fully healthy, the Bills are a scary team to try to get behind.
Let's just hope it doesn't end in a tie.
Last week: 9-4
Season: 56-61-3
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.