Hurley's Picks: Getting through the dark days of the NFL season

BOSTON -- It's Week 14 of the NFL season. Which is sad. The deeper you get into the teens, the sadder life is. The end comes for us all eventually, you know? You know. Everybody knows.

Anyways.

With the season not quite in that intense stretch run just yet, we're lacking a little juice here. No one story has announced itself as the obvious choice to lead this week's picks column. So we'll instead go quick-hitter through the stories around the league.

--Jon Robinson was fired by the Titans. That's crazy. It's not that you can't make a case for his firing, I guess. It's more that ... if you can make a case for his firing, then you can make a case for any GM's firing. The Titans are two-time defending AFC South champs, and they're going to waltz their way to a third straight division title. Firing a GM at 7-5 is just so bonkers. Nevertheless.

--Odell Beckham Jr. went on a free-agent tour. Micah Parsons said that Beckham believes he can return to game action in five weeks. That would be ... just in time for the postseason. I don't know how that situation will shake out, but I do know I will watch it.

--Von Miller underwent exploratory surgery that unfortunately led to the end of his season. That is brutal. Miller clearly believed he had a best-case scenario after suffering his knee injury a couple of weeks ago, but once the doctors got in there, a torn ACL was found. Just brutal. Miller was having an explosive season for the Bills, who are desperate to get to and win a Super Bowl. That loss is massive.

--Baker Mayfield was claimed by the Rams. It's kind of a crazy story, and we don't recognize it enough, but Baker Mayfield was the No. 1 overall pick and he's now on his third team in five years. The draft is bananas, man. What's the point? Josh Allen (No. 7) and Lamar Jackson (No. 32) ended up being pretty good picks, though.

--A story was written about Andrew Luck. It was roughly 14 million words long. Lots of people were going gaga for it. I read half of it. I got it. I'm not discounting the pain and challenges and sacrifices associated with being an NFL quarterback. I'm just saying those are very nice problems to have.

--Jimmy Garoppolo is injured. Done for the year. Kind of speaks to the previous point, I guess. I thought about feeling bad for Garoppolo, but when he has $114 million in career earnings, it's hard to conjure up too much sympathy. He'll probably be fine.

(Home team in CAPS; Wednesday lines)

Las Vegas (-6) over LOS ANGELES RAMS
I've seen some stories that say Baker Mayfield may start this game for the Rams on Thursday night. Baker Mayfield lived in the Carolinas until Tuesday. Doesn't feel like his new team would be setting him up for too much success by making him play. Giving him jersey No. 17 isn't helping matters, either.

TENNESSEE (-4) over Jacksonville
The classic "Rally The Boys, We Randomly Fired The GM Despite Being In First Place For The Third Straight Season" game from the Titans. How many times have we seen that before? Tale as old as time.

New York Jets (+9.5) over BUFFALO
Granted, the Bills do have some revenge to exact on the Jets. But if Buffalo's last two games are any indication, then the Bills will be happy to do enough to win without going overboard as they traverse this regular season. Get a lead, run the ball, kill some clock, get the W. It just makes the 9.5 too juicy to pass up.

Baltimore (+2.5) over PITTSBURGH
I get that Lamar Jackson is out, but the Ravens will still score points. Will the Steelers score any? I suppose we'll see.

NEW YORK GIANTS (+7) over Philadelphia
Listen, is it a bad pick? Maybe. But you can't be ride or die with the New York Giants -- who are 9-3 against the spread, by the way -- if you bail on them just because the Eagles are next on the docket.

Now, you could say, "Hey dummy, the Eagles scored 40 points last week, after scoring 35 points the week earlier. You dummy." 

And I'd say, "Mean." But also, "Maybe they won't score 40 this week, you ever think of that?"

CINCINNATI (-6) over Cleveland
The Bengals are also 9-3 against the spread. Cleveland probably won't score three non-offensive touchdowns too often. Deshaun Watson may be bad (at football) for a stretch.

Minnesota (+2.5) over DETROIT
I don't know. I think we all agree that the Vikings' 10-2 record is inflated with wins over mediocre-to-bad teams. We're not prepping for a Vikings Super Bowl appearance.

But I also saw a national headline this week that said something like, "The Lions have turned a corner. What now?" I've seen some off-the-wall celebration of Jared Goff, with some people concluding that the Lions won the Matthew Stafford trade now?

It's a bit much. We're parading through town because the Lions are 5-7? Seems premature.

DALLAS (-16) over Houston
The Houston Texans are not worth anybody's time. Thank you.

DENVER (+9.5) over Kansas City
It's a "hold on to your butts" kind of pick, because, well, Denver. But! The Broncos are pretty good at losing by not too many points. Seven of their eight losses have been by single digits. Only once have they lost by double digits, and that was a 13-point loss.

It may not be much, but the Broncos do have "keep games close-ish but ultimately lose" working for them. Which is nice.

SEATTLE (-3.5) over Carolina
Don't overthink it. Don't think about it at all, actually.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) over Tampa Bay
Monday night was awesome. Tom Brady rocks. Wahoo. But man oh man, that offensive line stinks. I'm sure going up against the NFL's sack leader in Nick Bosa won't create any issues, will it?

Wait ... I'm getting word that it will create some issues. OK. That makes more sense.

Brock Purdy may be Mr. Irrelevant, but he'll also kind of be irrelevant to this game. The Niners can win with their quarterback going 9-for-15 for 127 yards. Don't they do that most of the time anyway?

Miami (-3) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Some dork-on-dork crime with Mike McDaniel and Brandon Staley. Who will outdork the other???

Considering the Chargers have beaten nobody decent all season long, I like the dorking of McDaniel to win out over the dorking of Staley.

ARIZONA (+1.5) over New England
Just from a standings and record perspective, the Patriots should probably win. But I kind of feel as though they won't.

In the old days, we'd love the Patriots coming off a nationally televised beatdown. We'd feel pity for the next opponent after those rare occurrences. But those are the old days. These days, the offensive line is tattered, with three starters absent from Tuesday's early-week practice. Vance Joseph has the upper hand scheming a defense against Matt Patricia's offense. Players are openly questioning the coaching. New England got taken off prime time in Week 15. Arizona's coming off a bye; New England's gotten some extra rest from the Thursday game but also just played three games in 12 days. 

I don't feel great about it. The Cardinals are 0-7 this season against teams currently in the playoff field. The four games they've won have come against teams with a combined winning percentage of .327, the second-lowest strength of victory in the NFL.

But ... the Patriots aren't currently in the playoff picture. And they may be even farther out after Monday night.

Eh, but on second thought ...

New England (-1.5) over ARIZONA
The dynasty days may be over, but I don't think we're at the "Patriots losing to the Arizona freaking Cardinals" portion of the schedule. Not yet.

Last week: 6-9
Season: 94-95-6

You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.