Some simple "NFL Coach Math" explains that Bill Belichick's precarious job status is no media creation

BOSTON -- The fans appear to be upset with the media. These things happen.

And when the local football team is 3-11 and looking as hopeless as ever, fans are liable to get upset at all sorts of people. Some have targeted Bill Belichick, others have targeted the media for manufacturing a controversial story about the head coach's job status. And with slightly contradicting reports floating around out there on whether or not Belichick will return to Foxboro for a 25th season next year, we're all due to find out what the truth is on the legendary coach's status in less than a month's time.

For now, though, if we can remove emotion and personal opinion from the situation and look at the cold, hard reality of the NFL, we should be able to collectively see that the tenuous status of Belichick is not a media fabriaction.

Start with the owner's stated goals. In March of 2022, Kraft said, "it bothers me that we haven't been able to win a playoff game in the last three years." When asked for a timeframe on getting back to being a Super Bowl contender, he said, "I'd expect it to happen as soon as this year." The Patriots then went 8-9, their second sub-.500 season in three years.

A year later, in March of 2023, Kraft said this: "It's very important to me that we make the playoffs. That's what I hope happens next year." They're currently 3-11, tied for having the second-worst record in the entire NFL.

Clearly, the team is not meeting the demands of the owner.

Yet look around the NFL, and Kraft is hardly the only owner who gets antsy when his team doesn't win a playoff game for several years running.

Consider all of this:

--The Patriots' last playoff win came after the 2018 season. Missing the playoffs this year will ensure that the Patriots' playoff win drought will extend to a fifth year.

--18 teams have won playoff games since 2019. Of those 18 teams, four have undergone coaching changes over the past five years. Those teams are Minnesota, New Orleans (with franchise icon Sean Payton "retiring"), Tampa Bay (with Bruce Arians also "retiring" for a second time) and Houston (four times, from Bill O'Brien to interim Romeo Crennel to David Culley to Lovie Smith to DeMeco Ryans).

--Aside from the Patriots, two NFL teams' last playoff win came after the 2018 season: The Colts and the Chargers. Both teams have fired coaches since then. Anthony Lynn was fired after the 2020 season, and Brandon Staley was just fired last week. The Colts fired Frank Reich last year.

--There are 11 NFL teams with longer playoff win droughts than the Patriots. Some of those droughts extend so far back that there have obviously been a ton of coaching turnover since their last postseason victories (Detroit's extends to 1991, Miami's to 2000, Las Vegas/Oakland to 2002, Washington to 2005). But -- aside from Pittsburgh with Mike Tomlin -- all of the teams have undergone coaching changes.

--The Falcons' last playoff win was in 2017; Dan Quinn was fired after 2020.

--The Broncos' last playoff win was in 2015; Gary Kubiak stepped down after 2016, Vic Fangio was fired after 2021, Nathaniel Hackett was fired midway through his first season, and Sean Payton is on the job now. 

--The Panthers' last playoff win was also in 2015; Ron Rivera was fired after 2018, Matt Rhule was fired at the end of last year, and Frank Reich was fired in the middle of this season.

--The Cardinals' last playoff win came in 2015; Bruce Arians "retired" after the 2017 season, Steve Wilks was fired after his lone season in 2018, Kliff Kingsbury was fired last year after his four-year stint delivered zero playoff wins, and Jonathan Gannon is on the job now.

--The Bears last won a playoff game in 2010; they fired Lovie Smith after 2012, fired Jim Trestman after 2014, fired John Fox after 2017, fired Matt Nagy after 2021, and have Matt Eberflus at head coach now.

--The Jets also last won a playoff game in 2010; Rex Ryan was fired after 2014, Todd Bowles was fired after 2018, Adam Gase was fired after 2020, and Robert Saleh is the man now tasked with trying to deliver a playoff win for the franchise.

--Doug Pederson was a legend in Philadelphia after leading the Eagles to a Super Bowl win over Belichick and the Patriots in the 2017 season. He was fired three years later, depite a playoff win in 2018.)

--The Giants gave Ben McAdoo less than two years, Pat Shurmur two years and Joe Judge two years without playoff wins before firing them.

Out of all of the NFL's teams, only the Steelers have stuck with their head coach amid a playoff victory drought as long as the Patriots' current drought. That's the same Steelers organization that has employed just three head coaches since 1969, so that fact is very much in line with their philosophy.

But nobody else in the league has kept a coach with more than a five-year gap between playoff wins. The average gap between playoff wins before a coach is fired sits at three years.

In Washington, coaches have had an average of less than four years without playoff wins before getting fired. In Miami, the average has been under three years. For the Raiders? Less than two years.

Currently, all of the head coaches outside of New England considered to be on the "hot seat" -- Dennis Allen, Arthur Smith, Ron Rivera, Robert Saleh, Mike Vrabel, Todd Bowles, Matt Eberflus -- have coached less than five years without a playoff win. 

In terms of coaches to survive a five-year stretch without a playoff win? John Harbaugh went from 2015-19 without one, though the Ravens went 46-34 during those years. (The Patriots, by comparison, are 40-40 since 2019 and 28-36 since unceremoniously pushing Tom Brady out the door.) Seattle's Pete Carroll, the only active head coach older than Belichick, will reach four years without a playoff win this year if the Seahawks don't make a late push.

Clearly, some organizations have more patience than others. And just as clearly, Belichick's cachet and résumé does afford him some added cushion. That's why it's possible for Kraft to give Belichick one more year to try to right the ship, even as it appears to be drifting farther off course.

But in the NFL, clocks tick on head coaches from the moment they speak at their introductory press conferences. Owners want wins, and owners want championships. At the very least, owners want to see progress, and that progress is often measured in the form of postseason victories. A head coach keeping his job after going five years without a playoff victory is exceedingly rare, and that is a simple reality of the NFL.