Can Maye, Patriots keep pace with Tagovailoa, Dolphins offense in Week 12?

FOXBORO -- The New England Patriots are hoping to get back on track in Miami this weekend. But a matchup with the Dolphins isn't usually a recipe for success for the Patriots, especially in South Beach.

Miami has been an absolute house of horrors for the Patriots, who are just 17-42 overall in The Magic City. They are 13-24 at Dolphins/Hard Rock Stadium since it opened in 1987, and have had some truly incredible losses over that stretch. 

There was that Miami Miracle debacle in 2018 that saw Rob Gronkowski attempt to play defense on a last-second, walk-off touchdown by the Dolphins. A late-season loss in Miami in 2015 cost the Patriots home-field advantage in the playoffs, and they ultimately lost in the AFC Championship Game in Denver. Tom Brady was shutout in Miami in 2006 -- one of just two time the Pats put up a zero with Brady at QB. New England's Week 15 loss in Miami on Monday Night Football in 2004 was one of the team's two losses in that Super Bowl-winning season.

Maybe the Jerod Mayo Patriots will have different luck in Miami. But the team couldn't stop the Rams for most of last weekend's 28-22 loss in New England, and will now hit the road to face a Dolphins offense that is just as dangerous. Tua Tagovailoa is back and is playing at a high level, and he's never lost to the Patriots. The 4-8 Dolphins also need to win this weekend to remain in the hunt for a playoff spot.

Here's what we'll be watching for when the 3-9 Patriots visit the Dolphins for an AFC East showdown this weekend.

A locked in Tua Tagovailoa

Since returning from a head injury four weeks ago, Tagovailoa is on a real heater. He's completed 101 of his 130 passes (a 78 percent completion rate) for 960 yards, seven touchdowns, and just one interception over the last month, leading Miami to a 2-2 record over that span.

He's completed 73.4 percent of his passes for the season, with 1,443 yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions over his six starts. The Dolphins have averaged 23.5 points with Tua at quarterback this year.

The 26-year-old is 35-22 as a starter and a perfect 6-0 against the Patriots for his career, passing for nearly 1,300 yards and seven touchdowns against New England. The Patriots can't sleep on his weapons, but they also can't lose the QB either.

Tua is at his best when he's standing in the pocket and delivering short, precision passes that unlock Mike McDaniel's offense. He's not a dual-threat quarterback, but Tagovailoa can use his legs to extend plays and buy more time for his weapons downfield. That was on full display in last week's win over the Raiders, when Tua went off schedule and created a 24-yard connection with Jaylen Waddle. He did it again later in the game, resulting in an eight-yard touchdown to Tyreek Hill.

Tagovailoa completed 28 of his 36 passes for 288 yards with three touchdowns last week against Las Vegas. The New England defense struggled against Matthew Stafford and the Rams last weekend, and are in for another tough test Sunday in Miami.

Can the Patriots contain Miami's weapons?

With Tua back, Miami's offensive weapons are starting to come to life. Tyreek Hill found the end zone in each of the last two games -- both Miami wins -- after going without a score since Week 1. Jaylen Waddle has had issues dropping passes (he's up to seven on the season), but former Patriot Jonnu Smith has emerged with 39 receptions for 448 yards and three touchdowns to pick up the slack. He had a 57-yard touchdown against the Raiders last week.

Running back De'Von Achane has been making a lot of things happen out of backfield for Miami, leading the team with 46 receptions on 51 targets. He's found the end zone six times -- three on the ground and three receiving scores --  while racking up 41 first downs. 

Slowing -- or trying to slow down -- Hill is the key for New England this weekend. Mayo took some serious heat last weekend for having Christian Gonzalez play the boundary while Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua torched the rest of the secondary, but Gonzalez will likely find himself on Hill come Sunday.

Gonzalez held Hill to three receptions on six targets for 55 yards back in Week 5, as the Patriots' secondary did a great job smothering Miami pass-catchers in that 15-10 loss in New England. They weren't as successful last season when they went to Miami without an injured Gonzalez, when Hill had eight catches for 112 yards and a touchdown and Waddle checked in with seven catches for 121 yards and a score in a 31-17 Dolphins win.

Can Drake Maye and the Pats offense keep up?

The Patriots offense has looked worlds better with Drake Maye under center than it did in Week 5 when the team scored just 10 points against the Dolphins. And the New England rookie quarterback is coming off one of his best games since taking over, completing 29 of his 39 pass attempts for 282 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Rams.

But if the Dolphins start to really stack up points, will Maye and the Patriots be able to keep up? That will be difficult. 

The most the Patriots have scored in a game that Maye started was 25, and that was the game he didn't finish against the Jets.  Miami hasn't exactly lit the world on fire, but the Dolphins are averaging 27.8 points per game with Tua at QB. 

While many have given up on New England's receiving corps, tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper could be in line for big games on Sunday. Raiders rookie tight end Brock Bowers went off for 13 catches, 126 yards, and one touchdown last week, though he was the only Vegas player to do anything against Miami.

But if the Patriots want to keep pace on Sunday, protecting the football is a great way to start. As great as Maye was for most of last Sunday, he did turn the ball over twice by way of a strip-sack and his comeback-ending interception. He's turned the ball over twice or committed at least two turnover-worthy plays in even game he's started.

Maye can make some really good things happen for the Patriots offense, but he's not going to be able to keep pace with the Dolphins unless he kicks this turnover binge. These are the struggles you expect from a rookie quarterback, but it'd be nice to see him keep the ball away from the opposition this weekend.

Will we see more Marcus Jones on offense?

Perhaps Maye will have another game-changing talent at his disposal in Marcus Jones. The corner/return man is a dangerous fella with the ball in his hands, and he took two offensive snaps against the Rams last weekend.

Those were Jones' first offensive snaps of the year, because offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt didn't know about Jones' offensive abilities until he text him about it leading up to Week 10 against the Bears. That says quite a bit about the communication on the New England coaching staff, though Mayo said that the focus heading into the season was to get Jones healthy at corner and returner. 

"That was our focus. I mean, how much time do we want to spend on gadget plays? He's most valuable on the defensive side of the ball and on punt returns," Mayo said Friday.

A torn labrum ended Jones' sophomore campaign in Week 2 last season, so he didn't have any chances to run gadget plays for the New England offense. But he showed some flashes during his rookie season with four receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown, including a dynamic 48-yard catch-and-run touchdown against the Buffalo Bills.

Jones is going to have his hands full in the secondary. He'll also have to make sure he puts the offense in a good spot should Miami punt on Sunday. (The Dolphins didn't punt last week, and have punted just six times since Tua's return.) 

But if the offense needs a spark, maybe someone will text Van Pelt to give that Jones kid another try. 

Tune in to Sunday's Patriots-Dolphins game on WBZ-TV -- the television home of the New England Patriots! We'll get you Sunday morning with Patriots GameDay at 11:30 a.m. on WBZ-TV and streaming online at CBSBoston.com! Stick around the game for full reaction and analysis on Patriots 5th Quarter!

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