Mike Lockhart's Week 4 Fantasy Outlook: Potential Buy Low, Sell High Options
BOSTON (CBS) - 98.5 The Sports Hub fantasy expert Mike Lockart sat down with Andrew Celani of CBSBostonSports.com for a web exclusive discussing the upcoming fantasy week.
Between injuries, suspensions and designations to the exempt/commissioner's permission list, some of the NFL's top running backs have been out of action.
Chiefs ball carrier Jamaal Charles is one of those players.
Charles (high ankle sprain) sat out of last week's contest against the Dolphins despite practicing all week. A game time decision, head coach Andy Reid deemed Charles unfit for the game and sat him, paving the way for backup Knile Davis and his big day in the South Florida sun.
The Chiefs play again on Monday Night Football against the New England Patriots, which makes the Charles decision all the more complicated if you don't have Knile Davis as a handcuff.
"I guess what it is is a re-occurrence of a high ankle sprain and Charles didn't actually have the sprain a few weeks ago, so that's good. It's more of a re-occurrence, so it won't be the true 6 to 8 weeks that we're used to seeing with these injuries. So that's good. He did practice last week, but I don't think he'll be able to play again this week."
Lockhart advises to pay attention to Charles in practice this week and the reports coming out of Kansas City leading up to Monday night. Even if he does play, Lockhart doesn't love the matchup.
"The Patriots have a good defense. I think it'll be a low scoring game. I'm gonna back off from Jamaal Charles this week and bring him back into the mix next week if he's ready."
Week 4 is here, so that means the start of the bye week.
Arizona, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Seattle and St. Louis all have the week off, which means some very good fantasy backs will be inactive, like Andre Ellington, Giovani Bernard, Terrence West, Montee Ball, MarShawn Lynch and Zac Stacy, to name a few.
Who else is out there at the running back position, whether the waiver wire or through trades, that would be a worthy pickup?
"There's not much to be honest. Slim pickings. One guy who might be available is Titans running back Bishop Sankey," said Lockhart. "He hit the waiver wire in my league and I grabbed him for bench depth. He had 61 yards last week, so maybe he starts gaining some trust from the coaching staff. Maybe he gets a little more run this week. Other than that there's not a lot out there."
One player, who Lockhart admits is a "real, real reach," is Giants running back Andre Williams.
"[Williams] hasn't done a whole lot this year. I look at Rashad Jennings; he had 34 carries on Sunday, and they turn around and have to play a game Thursday night. Williams could see an increase in carries, and if he starts going off -- let's face it, the Redskins defense isn't great -- he's someone you might be able to sneak into a flex play and wind up getting decent points. But it's no sure thing."
Rich Keefe, who Mike co-hosts the Fantasy Football show with every Sunday morning at 8am on 98.5 The Sports Hub, is very high on the Miami defense this week in London against the Oakland Raiders.
Lockhart is on board with the strategy, because more often than not the London games (and Thursday nighters) can get pretty sloppy, but is not all that confident in the Phins across the pond because of the way the Raiders quarterback has looked.
"I'm not thrilled about Miami. I really liked what I've seen from Carr. I think that's an up-and-coming offense. I think as he gets more game experience it's only gonna help him. The wide receivers seem alright there and he's hitting them. It doesn't seem like things are going well for Ryan Tannehill and Miami. It wouldn't shock me if the Raiders beat Miami this week. I'm staying away from the Miami defense this week."
It happens every year.
Players A gets off to a slow start. Fantasy Owner X gets frustrated, trades Player A. Player A goes off, and wins Fantasy Owner Y the whole thing.
Three games are in the books. That's a pretty decent sample size. So now is the time you "buy low" on the underachievers and "sell high" on the overachievers.
Mike Lockhart lays out his picks for those who fall in that category.
"Somebody I would buy right now, bargain basement deal, is Jaguars running back Toby Gerhart. I think the last two weeks combined he's had 16 carries, but if you look at that offense it's been nothing. They've been getting killed and falling behind early, so that takes the running game right out of it. With Blake Bortles being named the starter maybe he can get this offense going, maybe passing the ball more and opening up the running game."
Buccaneers RB Doug Martin is another player that Lockhart would put into that "buy low" category.
"I'm curious to see how the Bucs turn it around this week. They were absolutely embarrassed last Thursday night. They have a week and a half now to prepare for the Steelers. They have a new quarterback in Mike Glennon. Martin has a knee injury, but they've been trying to get him right for a couple weeks. You could probably get him pretty cheap at this point too."
Conversely, like a good stock on the stock market, you've got to know when to sell high.
Some players have gotten off to a great start to the 2014 season and need to be traded immediately while they're at their peak.
Here are some players to sell high on:
"I think there are more disappointments at this point than there are flukes. Maybe you look at a guy like Kelvin Benjamin. He's a rookie that's not going to be consistent all year long, but he's going to have his good games. He's a guy who you could sell high on and definitely get something good for him like a running back. But I don't see too many guys performing well right now that you absolutely need to sell high on."
Antonio Gates is another potential "sell high" candidate.
"Maybe a guy like Gates too. There's a lot of tight ends performing well right now, so if you have a backup like Travis Kelce of the Chiefs maybe you make the move. Gates has been prone to injury the last couple of years, and the second half of the season could end up being more Ladarius Green."
For Lockhart's full breakdown and positional rankings, visit fantasybuzz.net and listen below for the full discussion!
Tune in every Sunday for the Sports Hub Fantasy Football Show from 8am - 10am with Mike Lockhart and Rich Keefe, and don't forget to tweet all your questions to @LockhartFFB and @Keefe21!
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