Meteorological Summer Is Over, But Summer Weather Isn't
First reply to the meteorologist's refrain 'Summer is over' - NO IT'S NOT FALL STARTS SEPTEMBER 23RD!
Folks take their equinoxes seriously, no doubt. But can we agree that we're both right? When it comes to the world of weather, 'summer' is defined as June, July, and August. That means that all records referred to as 'summer' records, ie 'warmest summer on record' and others of its ilk, refer to this time period only. Confused? There actually is a logical explanation for this.
Source: NASA
The main reason for the difference is that climate circles lump the seasons into temperature cycles, not astronomical positioning. In other words, peak heat is June-August. Temperatures start falling September - November. The coldest months are December through February. And so on. This also keeps the time scale of records consistent. If we went by astronomical seasons, they would vary widely. Astronomical seasons can range from 89 to 93 days in length due to Earth's elliptical orbit and the fact that a year is actually 365.24 days, resulting in Leap Years every four years. Climatological seasons stay in a 90-92 day range. Plus, meteorological seasons match what most people think of in their minds. If you ask 100 people what months they think of as fall, I'd bet 99 will say 'September, October, and November.' Same would go for all the others.
Summer: Back in the spring, many were asking what kind of summer we'd be in for after such a record-shattering winter. We looked back through some of the data and found that in most instances, a 'typical' summer followed extremely cold/snowy winters. In other words, the cold and snow didn't necessarily mean a cold summer or a sharp rebound to extreme heat. Voila, weather works! This summer was as completely average as you could imagine. After a chilly June, we rebounded and then evened the whole season out with a warm August. There really weren't any remarkable weather events at all, with no record highs or lows. No tropical systems. The only thing that caught my eye is it was a little dry, and June started on a very cold note with a pair of 'record low max' temps. But after that a season without extremes - what a novel concept!
Bottom line is that whether you're going to subscribe to the meteorological or astronomical belief (or just base it on the first cider donut sighting)...nature really could care less. Weather is going to do what it wants to do, and isn't going to file itself neatly into our guidelines. That notion is on display right now as plenty of summer weather will be sticking around for a long time to come. Let's take a peek at the details...
Now that's a ridge. Huge area of mid/upper level high pressure dominating the eastern United States and parts of Canada this week. Source: Weatherbell
The cause of this long and dry stretch is a massive ridge in the jet stream that will grow over the middle of the country and keep on building well to the north into Canada. This dome of warmth and sinking air will keep the heat on and limit our rain chances significantly. Some call it 'boring' but it beats being threatened by tropical systems as September is a peak month for hurricane risk. There will be little interludes of relief from the hot temps mixed in, which should keep the pattern from getting too tiresome for the heat-averse.
90-day percent of average precipitation across the Northeast. You can easily see that the driest weather has been across Connecticut and eastern Massachusetts this summer. Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center
Tuesday brings a weak backdoor cool front which will bring dry air into eastern New England and keep us out of the 90s. The warmest spots will be inland (mid/upper 80s) and coolest near the coast with upper 70s to around 80; an excellent beach day. Then we turn things back up for Wednesday and Thursday, which are expected to be the most uncomfortable days of the week. Highs should top 90 in many locales on Wednesday as the winds shift around to the W/SW. Dew points will also start creeping up above 60F. Thursday comes down to the timing of a front dropping down from the north. If it waits until the afternoon, we'll be up around 90 yet again with humid conditions. If it speeds up and arrives in the morning, we'll hold in the 80s. This front also brings us our only chance of rain over the next 7 days. It looks to be some scattered thunderstorms at most, so not every town will end up getting much needed moisture. But we'll have to cross our fingers that the front can come through in an otherwise bone dry stretch.
Once that cold front slips through, we get another push of refreshing air from the northeast. Highs will mainly stay in the 70s on Friday with NE winds and very low humidity. That air maybe so dry that we may be able to nab a few 40s Friday night! Ahhhhhhhhhhh
Then we move on to the holiday weekend. Indications are for an absolutely stellar Labor Day Weekend, which sends my weather spidey senses tingling. A perfect holiday weekend and New England are like pickles and frosting - a combo you just don't see often. BUT all current signs point to high pressure sitting right on top of us with beautiful bright and warm weather all weekend long. I'd recommend cautious optimism as I've seen this movie before...but that's the outlook right now.
Early indications are for a big dome of high pressure to sit over the Northeast this Labor Day Weekend. Source: Weatherbell
Next week? More warmth! Doesn't look like anything record breaking or too harsh, but temps should hold near/above average and no big rain events are on the horizon. As is always the case with weather, there are pros and cons. On the plus side, it makes outdoor activities easy and the growing season will keep on providing. On the down side, it makes classrooms uncomfortable and our ground is already quite dry. I'd suspect that short term drought conditions will start to show up again here in southern New England. Plus, a long dry and hot stretch late August through mid-September is not good news for the foliage season. It's been drier in southern New England than northern New England, which may limit impact on the hills of NH/VT/ME. But if we keep going down this road locally, it could end up being a pretty dull year with early leaf drop. Fingers crossed we can make up for lost time with a good rain event sometime around the middle of the month and turn our fortunes around. One thing we know for sure - weather always balances out.