Patriots-Bengals What To Watch For: Can Brissett lead the Pats to an upset win?
FOXBORO -- The Patriots kick off their 2024 season and a new era of New England football Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. The hopes aren't very high for Jerod Mayo's crew in his first season as head coach, and it all starts with a tough matchup against the Bengals.
But Week 1 is always a little, shall we say, weird in the NFL. Strange things happen in the first week of a season and even the best teams are ripe for the picking. Could the Bengals be one of those teams?
They have been in the past. In Zac Taylor's five seasons as head coach, the Bengals have won their Week 1 game just once. Cincinnati tends to get off to slow starts, beginning three of Joe Burrow's four seasons with an 0-2 record. And Burrow himself may have some rust given that he'll be playing his first real game since hurting his wrist last November.
However, let's not forget that the Bengals are an extremely talented team that will be competing for the AFC this season. The Patriots, meanwhile, are not favored in any of their 17 games this season.
Can the Patriots start the season with a surprising upset? Can they at least make Sunday competitive? Here's what we'll be watching for when New England kicks off its 2024 campaign in Cincinnati.
Will the Patriots have a functioning offensive line?
The offensive line is the biggest question mark and concern with the Patriots, which says something about a team with a lot of question marks and concerns going into the 2024 season. Outside of David Andrews anchoring things at center, we still don't even know who will make up the rest of the line with Sidy Sow and Vederian Lowe dealing with injuries.
Sow didn't practice Wednesday with the ankle injury he suffered in the preseason, leaving the two guard spots up in the air. Nick Leverett (who struggled at center in the preseason) was at left guard while rookie Layden Robinson occupied the right in practice. At tackle, Mike Onwenu held down the right side while Chuks Okorafor was protecting Jacoby Brissett's blindside in place of Lowe (who was limited Wednesday).
The line will be tested right away with a tough matchup against a talented Cincy pass rush. Edge rushers Trey Hendricks (17.5 sacks last season) and Sam Hubbard (six sacks) are going to make life miserable for Onwenu and Lowe/Okorafor. That is assuming Okorafor has figured out how to line up correctly after his rough preseason finale.
Brissett is going to feel the heat throughout Sunday's game, but maybe New England's run game under run-heavy OC Alex Van Pelt can help. Mayo said running the ball was "one of the best things" his team did in camp, and establishing a strong ground attack early will help mitigate the Cincy pass rush this weekend.
"They send people from everywhere, and they're very fundamentally sound. We also have to be sound in our approach offensively," Mayo said Wednesday. "You can settle games down by running the football and control the game that way. I think that has to be one of the things that we get done."
Van Pelt has a history of carving up the Bengals on the ground. While both he and Brissett were with the Brown in 2022, Cleveland stunned the Bengals with a 32-13 upset, thanks in large part to 173 rushing yards and three rushing scores.
Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson should get plenty of touches on Sunday. We'll see if the line will be able to open some holes for them to take advantage of.
Can Brissett lead the offense?
That upset win over the Bengals was one of the games Brissett revisited this week as a way of studying up on the Bengals. Brissett threw for 278 yards and a pair of touchdowns that day.
Cincinnati hasn't changed much since then, though Brissett will have a much different team in front of him on Sunday. But Van Pelt and a number of New England's current offensive staff had success against the Bengals during their time in Cleveland, with the Browns going 6-2 and averaging 26.8 points against their divisional foe during his time as the Browns' OC.
With New England's issues up front, Brissett is going to have to get rid of the football quickly. Establishing the run will help, but guys like Demario Douglas and Hunter Henry will be valuable safety values for Brissett on Sunday and throughout the season. The Browns picked up 77 yards off three play-action plays in that 2022 win over the Bengals, so that should be a big part of New England's approach on Sunday. If the Pats can get that going, maybe some downfield looks will open up for Ja'Lynn Polk and Tyquan Thornton.
What Brissett cannot do is turn the ball over. He's been good at that throughout his career, with 51 touchdowns passes to 23 picks, and that will have to continue if the Patriots want any chance on Sunday.
Patriots Secondary vs. Bengals Air Assault
The Patriots are going to be more aggressive with the pass rush this season, but we may not see that right away. The three-headed monster of the Cincy offense -- Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins -- can carve up a defense that gets too overzealous with its pass rush.
New England's secondary will be their best defense against the Bengals offense on Sunday. They'll scheme up pressure from Keion White, Josh Uche, and Oshane Ximines, but it will be up to Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones, Jabrill Peppers, and Kyle Dugger to keep Cincy's playmakers in front of them.
Chase is a big wild card in it all. He ended his hold-in Wednesday and returned to practice in a limited capacity. It's unclear if he'll play Sunday after sitting out most of the summer, but he's the kind of guy that can just roll out of bed and catch a bunch of passes for 120-plus yards.
The New England defense can afford to give up big yards if it can keep Cincinnati out of the end zone. It was that "bend don't break" kind of defense that nearly led the Patriots to an upset win over the Bengals at Gillette Stadium two years ago. But then it's up to the offense to live up to their end of the bargain, and that is no guarantee.
The Mayo Era Begins
We are a long ways away from knowing if Jerod Mayo is the right man for this job. And we shouldn't overreact to the results of Week 1 whether they're good or bad.
But we would like to see a functioning team. One that can line up correctly on the offensive line. One that doesn't turn the ball over in back-breaking fashion or gives up big plays that change the game.
The Patriots lost a number of games last season where one play would have made the difference. Will they be the team to make that play this year, or will they continue to let the big moments get the best of them? That will be the difference between finishing the season with a respectable record and competing for the No. 1 overall pick.
Mayo has a lot on his plate and he's going to need time to figure it all out. That is part of the process. But even rebuilding teams can be competitive and play something resembling NFL football each weekend. Let's get at least that much out of Mayo's team this season.
Tune in to Sunday's Patriots-Bengals showdown on WBZ-TV -- your television home of the New England Patriots! Pregame coverage begins at 11:30am with Patriots GameDay, kickoff is set for 1pm, and after the game stay tuned for Patriots 5th Quarter -- all on WBZ-TV!