Keller @ Large: DeSantis struggles to catch up to Trump in New Hampshire
BOSTON - It's been three weeks since Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis launched his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, promising in a launch video to be "an energetic executive who will spit nails and fight the needed battles every single day."
But in New Hampshire, a key early primary state where Trump-backed candidates flopped in last fall's election and the popular governor, Chris Sununu, is a harsh Trump critic, DeSantis has struggled. He led Trump by 12 points in mid-January New Hampshire polling; now, the Real Clear Politics average of the most recent surveys has him down by 18 points.
What happened?
DeSantis's fade coincides with a period of intense focus on Trump's legal battles, which have galvanized GOP support for the former president to the point where even DeSantis feels the need to defend him. "If there's a different standard for a Democrat Secretary of State [Hillary Clinton] versus a former Republican president, I think there needs to be one standard of justice in this country," he said in a recent campaign speech.
In this context, DeSantis's attacks on Trump, like a recent video slamming him for failing to fire Dr. Anthony Fauci - seem to be falling flat, especially when it came out that several still photos in the video of Trump hugging Fauci were A-I fakes.
New Hampshire Republicans have been good to Trump, though after their losses last fall DeSantis might find fertile ground for his "time to move on" pitch, including one ad where a voter pastes a DeSantis bumper sticker over a Trump sticker.
Then again, Trump has some ammo of his own. In one video, the Trump campaign recounts the story of how Trump's endorsement saved DeSantis's bacon in the 2018 Florida GOP gubernatorial primary. "Unfortunately instead of being grateful, DeSantis is attacking the very man who saved his career," the narrator laments. "Isn't it time DeSantis remembers how he got to where he is?"
Couldn't Trump's legal problems take their toll on the former president's candidacy over time?
Maybe, but maybe not. In the latest CBS News/YouGov national poll, 61% of likely GOP primary voters say the new indictment won't change their view of Trump, with 14% saying it actually improves their opinion of him. And 80% said Trump should still be able to serve as president even if convicted in the documents case.
Trump's appeal has always been grounded in the grievances of the Republican base, and if he can cast the race as himself vs "deep state" prosecutors, that could leave DeSantis and the others out in the cold.