Can we get serious about all of this J.J. McCarthy chatter?

BOSTON -- The NFL offseason is a strange time. And the strangest part of this offseason has been the meteoric rise of one Mr. J.J. McCarthy.

The 21-year-old last suited up for a football game on Jan. 8, when he won a national championship with Michigan. At the time, he was widely considered to be a late-first round or maybe early second-round pick. Since then, despite playing in zero football games, McCarthy has shot up draft boards. It's to the point where some mock drafts have him being taken with the No. 2 or No. 3 overall pick.

It's ... a lot.

While certainly, a draft prospect can impress coaches and front offices during interviews and meetings, it's still a bit difficult to comprehend a player having such a meteoric rise come out of nowhere.

And, hey, who knows, maybe it's all 100 percent factual. Maybe the Commanders love McCarthy. Maybe the Patriots do, too. Maybe he will be taken as high as some people are now predicting. Or maybe it's all smokescreens and misdirection, as executives try to build whatever narrative they want to use to their advantage.

But at the very least, the collegiate stats put up by McCarthy are not befitting of a high pick. At least not this year.

J.J. McCarthy's College Stats

Consider this: McCarthy started 28 games for Michigan. In those 28 games, McCarthy completed 15 or fewer passes in 15 of them. That is to say, in more than half of his games played, McCarthy completed 15 or fewer passes. And in three of those games, he finished with a single-digit completion number. (He was 8-for-17 against Nebraska in 2022, he was 8-for-13 against Bowling Green last year, and he was 7-for-8 last year against Penn State. Michigan won all three games by an average score of 30-8. Make of that what you will.)

McCarthy also had 13 starts with under 200 passing yards, and he had just three career games with 300-plus passing yards.

In terms of touchdowns, McCarthy threw zero of them in eight of his starts. He threw just one touchdown in five starts, and two touchdowns in seven games. He threw three touchdowns in a game eight times, and more than three just once, when he threw four touchdowns against Michigan State last year.

In terms of the impressive numbers, McCarthy's can be found in his lack of interceptions. He threw three interceptions once (against Bowling Green, somehow) and two interceptions once (against TCU), but otherwise either threw one interception (six times) or zero interceptions (32 times) in the 40 games that he took the field.

How J.J. McCarthy's Stats Compare To Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye

This is really where the separation between the top three quarterbacks and McCarthy sticks out -- again, talking strictly from a statistical standpoint.

Caleb Williams had 10 games with four or more touchdown passes, while Drake Maye had six and Jayden Daniels had five. McCarthy had one.

Williams had 15 games with 300-plus passing yards. Daniels had 14, and Maye had 12. Again, McCarthy had three.

Williams also had five games with 30 or more completions, while Maye had three and Daniels had two. McCarthy didn't have any.

Daniels was obviously a prolific rusher, running for two or more touchdowns seven times, though Williams also had six games with two or more rushing touchdowns. Maye found the end zone on the ground twice in a game on three occasions, while McCarthy scored two rushing touchdowns in a game just once.

And though each quarterback's playing time varied, the disparity in the raw stats is too great to ignore.

Passing Yards
Daniels: 12,750
Williams: 10,082
Maye: 8,018
McCarthy: 6,226

Passing TDs
Williams: 93
Daniels: 89
Maye: 63
McCarthy: 49 

Rushing Yards
Daniels: 3,307
Maye: 1,209
Williams: 966
McCarthy: 632

Rushing TDs
Daniels: 34
Williams: 27
Maye: 16
McCarthy: 10

Obviously, there's a lot more to quarterbacking than statistics can show. And with Michigan being so good during McCarthy's two seasons as starter (they went 28-1), he was clearly doing what needed to be done for the Wolverines to win games. And there have been plenty of quarterbacks who filled up the stat sheets in college only to struggle in the pro game. Teams also are not predictable when it comes to drafting quarterbacks high in the draft, with cases like Jake Locker at No. 8 being particularly memorable. Understood.

It's just difficult to believe that without some history of explosive playmaking at the most important position on the field that any team -- let alone multiple teams -- would seriously consider spending a top-three or even top-five pick on this player.

Ultimately, we'll find out just how much teams are actually in love with McCarthy when picks start coming off the board on April 25. From the outside, he still appears to be a quarterback who belongs in the second tier of prospects.