Keller: What polling says about crucial swing voters in 2024 presidential race
The opinions expressed below are Jon Keller's, not those of WBZ, CBS News or Paramount Global.
BOSTON - A new CBS News poll shows 83% of registered Democrats approve of President Joe Biden's decision to drop out of the presidential race, and 79% back Vice President Kamala Harris as the nominee.
But what about the all-important independents who often make the difference in close elections?
We asked CBS News Director of Elections Anthony Salvanto what his polling tells us about these crucial swing voters. Research he did last spring showed independents don't like extremism or partisanship.
Voting in opposition to candidate
"There's not as much of that negativity from folks in the middle, and that's important because, going forward, you want to think that Americans can talk to each other and hear each other out," Salvanto said.
"The question becomes the race to define what the campaign is about," Salvanto said. "Is it about issues or about that negative partisanship, voting against the other side? One of the key questions we ask is, are you voting for your candidate or in opposition to the other? And there's been a sizeable number voting in opposition to the other candidate. We're going to watch that and see if that changes, because at the end of the day many voters are going to want to vote for something as opposed to opposing something."
Imagine that, actually voting for something. But that's the task facing both Harris and former President Donald Trump - firing up their base by attacking the opposition, that's a given, but also offering those non-partisan voters a vision of the next four years that appeals to them.
What Trump, Harris campaigns will look like
What might that look like for both candidates?
Trump so far makes the case that he will ditch Biden-era policies and go back to the way he did things in his first term, which polls show many voters recall positively as a time of low inflation and relative peace abroad. As for the future, Trump keeps it simple - just trust me, I can end wars with a single phone call, etc.
For Harris, it's a bit more complicated. She can't just say I'll carry the Biden policies forward because many of those aren't popular with the independents. She'll need to persuade them she can do better than Biden, even as she tries to keep the 2020 Biden coalition together.