2022 Hurricane Season May Be More Active Than Usual, Researchers Say
BOSTON (CBS) -- The first big hurricane forecast for 2022 has been released and, no surprise, it is for another very active season. On Thursday, Colorado State University predicted 19 named storms (average is 14), 9 hurricanes (average is 7), and 4 major hurricanes (average is 3).
This comes on the heels of two VERY active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons...
In 2020, we had a record 30 named storms. Last year, we went through the entire first list of names once again, with 21 named storms.
The CSU forecast of 19 named storms for 2022 is actually their highest forecast ever.
So what's the deal? Global warming?
We can point to two major factors for our recent surge of tropical systems in the Atlantic. First, we have had a prolonged La Nina, a cooling of the Pacific Ocean off of South America. La Nina's tend to cut down on the wind shear in the Atlantic/Caribbean, something key to the formation of tropical systems.
Second, the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin and Caribbean have been anomalously warm. Hurricanes feed off of the warm ocean waters, doing their best work when Ocean temperatures get over 80 degrees.
CSU's models and forecasters also calculated a 71% chance that a major hurricane (category 3-4-5) will make landfall somewhere on the U.S. Coastline this season (the average is 52%).
As for New England, no specifics in their forecast. But, it is always a good idea to be prepared. While it has been 31 years since a hurricane made landfall here (Bob in 1991), it only takes one big one. Sooner or later, we will have another major strike and most of us alive have never experienced what that feels like. You really have to go back to the Hurricane of 1938 for the last truly devastating hurricane here, although Carol and Edna in the 50s dealt quite a blow as well.